Middle East Conflict vs. EVs

[brianc35]

I'm sure you all have seen what's going on in the middle east by now.
This isn't to get political. Rather, it's focus on impacts to the economy, oil supply, and thus it's long-tail impact to EVs.

IRGC says Iran in ‘complete control’ of Strait of Hormuz amid Trump threats

One-fifth of the global oil is shipped through the strait, which remains effectively closed amid US-Israeli war on Iran.

www.aljazeera.com

The main channel for 1/5 of the world's oil is in the middle of all this. Politicians will say they own it - no, we own it/control it - and so on for as long as this will go on, and the end result is fewer ships making their way out.

The US/Canada don't import a lot of oil from this path to the best of my knowledge.
How much oil does the United States import (and why)? says only about 12% are non-North American imports.

Gas prices have gone up a couple dimes over the past few days but nothing significant.

Will this conflict - if it lasts long enough - drive an impact on the struggling EV market of 2026? Could we see another wave of new owners getting in line to go electric?

What price point does oil/gasoline need to rise to in order to start influencing purchasing decisions?

 

[R P]

Oil prices will be back down in a few weeks. They are already down from the highs. Waiting on when the Strait of Hormuz opnes again. US has just stated they will assist with security and escorting ships.

Biggest threat right now is from the Iranian one-way kamikaze drones, which are very difficult to detect on their path incl their dynamic launch sites (trucks, etc). Iran seems to have a large supply of these and until they are stopped, ships and other targets, short and long range, are vulnerable.

So yes, gas prices will go up in the short term. But that will not last.

 

[bwilson4web]

EVs are the ultimate ‘flex fuel’ which means we have alternatives.

• Grid power
• Home solar
• 3x miles per dollar over my last Prius

Bob Wilson

 

[No Ice]

EVs are the ultimate ‘flex fuel’ which means we have alternatives.
View attachment 28438

• Grid power
• Home solar
• 3x miles per dollar over my last Prius

Bob Wilson

Hi Bob, yes EV,s are the only to go to get of the fossil fuel train, petrol has just gone up 8% here in Australia to $1.85c per liter $ aus.
I am still charging my Kona for 0.072 c per Kwhr from my solar, the 0.072 c is the FIT i get, so fuel cost for me is around 0.01c per km.
I have a Zappi smart charger, set on 100% solar .so NO import from the grid for car charging at all.Jim

 

[Landshark]

One thing is certain, the outcome will be uncertain. Another near certainty is that the hot topic will be something completely different in a week or two.

With the exception of a brief increase in the months prior to the end of incentives, EV sales in the US had plateaued prior to the demise of Federal subsidies. Manufacturers have been announcing moves away from electrified vehicles and they’ve been delaying and/or eliminating electrified vehicles from their lineups. I’ll toss a No into the hat for increasing EV sales due to the current situation.

As far as fuel prices, one should take a breath and run some numbers. Let’s start with a person who drives a vehicle 12,000 miles a year and gets 25mpg. They’ll buy 480 gallons of gas in a year. At $3/gal that will cost $1440. At $6/gal it will cost $2880. The difference in this simple example is $1440/yr. Of course there’s no guarantee that we’ll see $6/gal gas, outside of California and they would have started at closer to $5/gal a couple of weeks ago, and there’s no guarantee that gas would remain at $6/gal for any length of time.

So one would need to ask themselves, “How much of a loss am I willing to take on my current vehicle and how much am I willing to to spend on a new vehicle in order to possibly spend $120/mo less on fuel for 3 months, 6 months, a year or not at all?”

Personally, I’m not sure what gas price would compel me to consider an electrified vehicle. We’re currently planning to eliminate our last and only remaining PHEV from our fleet. Even at double current prices, $3.44 yesterday at Costco, I might try to consolidate our trips and errands to reduce the number of miles driven. Frankly, an additional $1500/year in fuel costs isn’t going to motivate me to buy a different vehicle or put solar panels on the roof.

My $.02.

 

[No Ice]

my $2.00 Australian dollars worth,
my other half has a Kona 1.6 t petrol, It gets 7 km,per liter at prices here now in Australia of $2,70 c a lt that's 0.38 c per KM for fuel.
My electric Kona gets 7km per kwk, charged from my solar with a FET of 0.07 c per kwh , that's $0.01 c per km.
a 6.600kw solar is $7,000 here with a 5 kw inverter and generates around 10,000kwhr per year here
I drive around 28,000km a year, so that's a saving on gas of maybe $10,000 a year, so here solar and an EV is very well worth it if people want to have control over the car and power costs

 

[Landshark]

It’s different here. Gas is $3.50 a gallon, but it’s been $3.00 or less for the past year. 25 miles per gallon, or 40km/gal is about $.09/km.

We installed a 4.5kW solar array with an 8kW inverter that cost $20,000 after all credits and incentives. It produced around 6000kwh’s annually that offset $.10-12/kwh electricity with a value of $600-700. That’s the problem with offsetting cheap electricity. Where we are now the power company only pays 50% of the going rate for solar production, so it isn’t an attractive proposition to install solar.

 

[No Ice]

Hi Landshark, i am sorry to here you paid so much for your solar system, before i retired i was a solar system designer and installing supervisor for a major company here in Australia ,average prices for the USA are around
A 4.5 kW solar system in the US typically costs between $12,375 and $15,000 on average, before incentives, based on 2025 data. After applying the 30% federal tax credit, this cost can drop significantly to roughly $8,600 – $10,500. Prices may vary based on location, with costs often falling between this Range
I am mystified why you have an 8 kw inverter and only 4.5kw of panels, this means the inverter is only going to achieve 50% of its efficiency rating, the standard desine for a 4.5 kw system would only use a 4 kw inverter because due to wiring and panel loses the will never achieve there rated output after the first 6 months and during 9 months of the year perhaps only 50,to 60% of this, so if you are getting 6,000 kw hr you are getting average output for your system, good output for 4.5 kw of panels and a 4kw inverter would be 7500kwh per year,
sorry to have to give you the bad news,

 

[bwilson4web]

A 4.5 kW solar system in the US typically costs between $12,375 and $15,000 on average,

Could you break that out for equipment and labor?

My $60,000, 4.8 kW (peak, consisted of

• 16 - 400 W, microcontroller panels
• 13 kWh - solar battery
• controller with grid and emergency generator interface
• Smart panel with remote control monitoring and ON/OFF
• Solar panel install crew, three
• Electrical work crew, two, and two visits

Bob Wilson

 

[No Ice]

Could you break that out for equipment and labor?

My $60,000, 4.8 kW (peak, consisted of

• 16 - 400 W, microcontroller panels
• 13 kWh - solar battery
• controller with grid and emergency generator interface
• Smart panel with remote control monitoring and ON/OFF
• Solar panel install crew, three
• Electrical work crew, two, and two visits

Bob Wilson

Hi Bob this is a quick workup, for more info i would need all the specs for everything, which also need your address for me to satellite view your house, so best done with PM messaging ,would name of panels and the MC,s inverter name and specs solar battery and specs, gateway for battery and inverter controller, name and spec of smart controller, any new wiring needed , single or three phase power, no of hrs. for crew on site photos of everything as well with before and after if possible, average prices for your system installed someware in mainland USA are
Estimated Cost Breakdown (USD)

• 4.8 kW Solar Array (16 x 400W Panels): ~$7,500 – $10,000 (Panels + Racking + Microinverters/Optimizers).
• 13 kWh Battery System + Controller/Gateway: ~$9,000 – $13,000.
• Smart Panel & Monitoring (On/Off capabilities): ~$1,000 – $2,500.
• Labor (Two+ Visits, Solar & Electrical Crews): ~$2,000 – $4,000+.
• Total Pre-Incentive Estimate: $19,500 – $29,500+
• After 30% Federal Tax Credit (approx.): ~$13,650 – $20,650+.
  Jim

 

[Landshark]

i am sorry to here you paid so much for your solar system,

I am mystified why you have an 8 kw inverter and only 4.5kw of panels,

I suppose our system wasn’t “typical”. We got several estimates, the others were higher and/or included lower quality components. Perhaps your figures are inaccurate.

The 8K Outback Radian Inverter was selected in part because we planned for the possibility of adding more panels at a later date which would give us just under 7,000 watts. We also had a 48V battery bank in place from the previous installation.

We no longer own that home and have no plans to install solar on our current home. Thanks for your helpful advice.

 

[bwilson4web]

Estimated Cost Breakdown (USD)

• 4.8 kW Solar Array (16 x 400W Panels): ~$7,500 – $10,000 (Panels + Racking + Microinverters/Optimizers).
• 13 kWh Battery System + Controller/Gateway: ~$9,000 – $13,000.
• Smart Panel & Monitoring (On/Off capabilities): ~$1,000 – $2,500.
• Labor (Two+ Visits, Solar & Electrical Crews): ~$2,000 – $4,000+.
• Total Pre-Incentive Estimate: $19,500 – $29,500+
• After 30% Federal Tax Credit (approx.): ~$13,650 – $20,650+.
  Jim

I’ve already got my system in and operational since May 2025. I’ll share some photos:

The Northwest facing array moved to Southwest facing roof. Some shadow from eve but totally masked by neighbor’s trees to Southeast in the morning.

Here the morning shadows from the neighbor’s trees.

Left to right:

• Cable to 13 kWh battery
• Junction box
• System controller on top
• Grid switch
• Grid meter, no ‘excess pay back’
• Legacy, Generac, emergency generator circuit
• Legacy NEMA 14-50 outlet box
• Solar panel disconnect
• Solar panel power mix box

Specs: 4.8 kWh peak solar limited by micro inverters; 13 kWh solar roof battery; 16 kW legacy emergency generator, and; 200 A grid service. Two EV L2 chargers: 32 A, 240 VAC.

Price included licensed installers and local utility permitting. Although my engineering background, I could have done my own BUT I hired experts who have done this before. There is a significant learning curve.

Bob Wilson

 

[Landshark]

Could you break that out for equipment and labor?

Since you had the system installed can you break it down for us so we have actual numbers rather than guesswork?

The Lithium battery must have been a significant factor in the total price. Did you have a generator installed, or just wiring prepped for a future installation?
Was $60K the price before the now expired Fed Credit was calculated?
Did you qualify for and were you able to capture the entire credit?
Were there any state or local incentives available to you at the time of installation?
What is the estimated annual savings on your electricity bill now that you have solar panels?
Does your utility company allow net metering?
If not, how are you compensated for the solar electricity production?

 

[Ankundin]

I'm sure you all have seen what's going on in the middle east by now.
This isn't to get political. Rather, it's focus on impacts to the economy, oil supply, and thus it's long-tail impact to EVs.

IRGC says Iran in ‘complete control’ of Strait of Hormuz amid Trump threats

One-fifth of the global oil is shipped through the strait, which remains effectively closed amid US-Israeli war on Iran.

www.aljazeera.com

The main channel for 1/5 of the world's oil is in the middle of all this. Politicians will say they own it - no, we own it/control it - and so on for as long as this will go on, and the end result is fewer ships making their way out.

The US/Canada don't import a lot of oil from this path to the best of my knowledge.
How much oil does the United States import (and why)? says only about 12% are non-North American imports.

Gas prices have gone up a couple dimes over the past few days but nothing significant.

Will this conflict - if it lasts long enough - drive an impact on the struggling EV market of 2026? Could we see another wave of new owners getting in line to go electric?

What price point does oil/gasoline need to rise to in order to start influencing purchasing decisions?

I prefer to rely on platforms that offer clear advantages and verified value, such as Mostbet Promo Code for Bangladesh – MB9V7S (2026) which stands out for its transparency and the consistent, high-quality rewards it provides to its users.

The surge in Brent crude past $100 and towards $120 since late February 2026 has already pushed the national average for regular gas to around $3.48 with some experts predicting it could hit $4.25 before the broader economy feels major damage. While North America produces a record amount of its own oil the global nature of the market means that any threat to the 20% of supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to drive up pump prices regardless of domestic sourcing. History suggests that we would likely need to see gas sustained at or above $5.00 a gallon to trigger a massive wave of new EV buyers like we saw in 2022 but even this current jump has already increased the interest from the 77% of potential buyers who cite fuel savings as their primary motivation.

 

[brianc35]

MSN

Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as 'tool to pressure enemy,' Iran's new supreme leader says​

​

 

[Landshark]

Oh boy! Are we going political?

We’re already off the rails talking about rooftop solar costs.

 

[brianc35]

Not political. Just a statement/fact was made about the strait, which means this is going to be prolonged a bit more and will drive price changes.

I think it's a very valid conversation. The savings isn't enough -- until it is.

 

[bwilson4web]

Since you had the system installed can you break it down for us so we have actual numbers rather than guesswork?

I still have the folders holding the correspondence. Good time to review them.

Lithium battery? - the single largest expense was the smart breaker box, SPAN. The installation took two visits and the SPAN was installed two months before the permit to operate. I soon learned I could reduce my monthly electric bill by just knowing what was using electricity and didn't need to be on. Load management is critical to getting the maximum useful work from the solar power system.

a generator installed? - the 16 kW, automated emergency generator was installed eight years earlier in 2016 when I had the grid service upgraded from 100 A to 200 A. Before, I had Prius and used them as 1.1 kWh emergency generators at roughly 2 gallons/per day. We could "camp out" at home with no noise nor carbon monoxide risks.

I bought the $8,000, automated system as my late wife's failing health would have trouble running the Prius for emergency power. So I got an automated system that after 30 seconds, would power the whole house including gas heater, hot water heater, kitchen, and all outlets. It was sized to handle the additional 7.3 kW load of charging my BMW i3-REx as well as the whole house.

$60K Fed Credit was calculated? - installed in 2024, I got a generous refund in 2025.

capture the entire credit? - all that I claimed but not the three trees taken down, another $5,000.

state or local incentives? - Dixie didn't stand in my way. Alabama jumped my EV tag fees $200, BMW i3-REx, and $300, Tesla. The utility company threw a fit about proper construction permit "protocol" that delayed operation from January to May. But the second contractor visit solved that problem (I'm still pissed, thanks for reminding me!)

estimated annual savings? - my initial estimates were about $800-900 per year. The anniversary is May 2026 so I'll get the first full year. With better load management, it looks to be close to $1,200. One predictable but seldom discussed is the 86% efficiency of the solar power system battery.

The battery charges from excess solar, 240 VAC, into DC battery bus with about 92% efficiency. Then it later exports that stored DC energy at about 92% efficiency as 240 VAC. The product, 92% * 92%, is how much of that energy gets sent to useful loads. So I charge my EVs starting at 10 AM and noon so their batteries get the maximum useful charge.

utility company metering? - they charge me retail, ~$0.12 kWh for any extra I buy. But they would only pay me $0.05 kWh with some additional fees. These would also be taxable income. So I sized my system to handle all of the EV loads and most of the house electrical loads. A good day, I "give" them 1-2 kWh "free."

how are you compensated for the solar electricity production? - it is "cost avoidance" for electricity I would otherwise have to buy to keep my EVs running. In fact, we have a two-tiered utility rate and the solar power system has kept me in the lower tier, further saving money. Most important, avoiding costs means not being taxed for income I used have to earn to pay taxes for my electricity. The system was financed by selling my TSLA stock.

The TSLA stock sale netted the money needed to pay for the solar roof. But I was subject to a capital gains tax equal to the tax credit for buying a solar roof. In effect, my TSLA capital became a solar roof capital investment in my home. But unlike TSLA stock that pays no dividend, my solar roof earns by untaxed, cost avoidance.

For proprietary reasons, the contractor, Solar Alternatives, did not reveal their pricing details. However, we had excellent communications and I am well pleased with the results. I live in Huntsville Alabama and welcome the curious (PM to coordinate a visit.)

Bob Wilson

ps. I have these files if there are any you have a specific interest:

 

[Landshark]

Will this conflict - if it lasts long enough - drive an impact on the struggling EV market of 2026? Could we see another wave of new owners getting in line to go electric?

What price point does oil/gasoline need to rise to in order to start influencing purchasing decisions?

I think it's a very valid conversation. The savings isn't enough -- until it is.

It doesn’t appear that anyone is questioning the validity of the conversation or your original questions.

Costs need to be considered in the pursuit of savings. Let’s dig in to your question about the price point of gas and its influence on “purchasing decisions” which I take to mean EV purchases, given the context above. Having years of experience with 2 PHEV’s, a Clarity and a Jeep 4xe, I’ve found it quite convenient to compare the cost of operating them on either gas or electricity. Both cars have a 17Kw battery which provides a range that is equivalent to a gallon of gas. There is a disadvantage to using electricity in cold climates compared to gas, however I’ll leave those details for another day. A full charge on either car consumes approximately 14Kwh’s. At $.10, $.20 or $.30/Kwh it’s $1.40, $2.80 or $4.20 for a full charge, which again, is equivalent to a gallon of gas.

We’re in the $.20/Kwh range, however many parts of the country are in the $.30/Kwh range. With the exception of those who have spent $20K-$60K on rooftop solar, electricity isn’t free or cheap. What needs to be determined is the cost difference between using gas or electricity. In my 20mpg truck, driving 12,000 miles per year, I’ll need to buy 600 gallons of gas. Every $1 difference between gas and electricity will equal $600 per year. A $3 difference, or a near doubling from a month ago, would total $1800/yr. Neither of those numbers are going to motivate me to start shopping for an electric vehicle.

The cost to move in to a a new EV is going to involve selling a used car that has depreciated significantly and buying a new car that is going to depreciate rapidly. It may also involve a new monthly payment as opposed to driving a 4 year old car that’s paid in full. Insurance rates may increase. Additionally, if there was a sudden increase in demand for EV’s, the supply may not be available to meet that demand. Prices could increase which could make any perceived savings disappear. It’s also possible that discounts could be offered on trucks and SUV’s. Of course, if someone happens to be in the market for a new car then an electric vehicle may be a suitable option. That said, it would be a questionable decision to make such a purchase simply for the sake of reducing fuel costs.

We also have no guarantee of a price that gas may reach, the length of time it may remain there or where it may retreat. We do have some assurance that electricity rates may continue to increase at 10% or more annually which could bring the cost of operating on electricity back on par with elevated gas prices, should they remain high.

I hope that provides some feedback to your questions from what may be a different perspective than yours.