Middle East Conflict vs. EVs

[brianc35]

I'm sure you all have seen what's going on in the middle east by now.
This isn't to get political. Rather, it's focus on impacts to the economy, oil supply, and thus it's long-tail impact to EVs.

IRGC says Iran in ‘complete control’ of Strait of Hormuz amid Trump threats

One-fifth of the global oil is shipped through the strait, which remains effectively closed amid US-Israeli war on Iran.

www.aljazeera.com

The main channel for 1/5 of the world's oil is in the middle of all this. Politicians will say they own it - no, we own it/control it - and so on for as long as this will go on, and the end result is fewer ships making their way out.

The US/Canada don't import a lot of oil from this path to the best of my knowledge.
How much oil does the United States import (and why)? says only about 12% are non-North American imports.

Gas prices have gone up a couple dimes over the past few days but nothing significant.

Will this conflict - if it lasts long enough - drive an impact on the struggling EV market of 2026? Could we see another wave of new owners getting in line to go electric?

What price point does oil/gasoline need to rise to in order to start influencing purchasing decisions?

 

[R P]

Oil prices will be back down in a few weeks. They are already down from the highs. Waiting on when the Strait of Hormuz opnes again. US has just stated they will assist with security and escorting ships.

Biggest threat right now is from the Iranian one-way kamikaze drones, which are very difficult to detect on their path incl their dynamic launch sites (trucks, etc). Iran seems to have a large supply of these and until they are stopped, ships and other targets, short and long range, are vulnerable.

So yes, gas prices will go up in the short term. But that will not last.

 

[bwilson4web]

EVs are the ultimate ‘flex fuel’ which means we have alternatives.

• Grid power
• Home solar
• 3x miles per dollar over my last Prius

Bob Wilson

 

[No Ice]

EVs are the ultimate ‘flex fuel’ which means we have alternatives.
View attachment 28438

• Grid power
• Home solar
• 3x miles per dollar over my last Prius

Bob Wilson

Hi Bob, yes EV,s are the only to go to get of the fossil fuel train, petrol has just gone up 8% here in Australia to $1.85c per liter $ aus.
I am still charging my Kona for 0.072 c per Kwhr from my solar, the 0.072 c is the FIT i get, so fuel cost for me is around 0.01c per km.
I have a Zappi smart charger, set on 100% solar .so NO import from the grid for car charging at all.Jim

 

[Landshark]

One thing is certain, the outcome will be uncertain. Another near certainty is that the hot topic will be something completely different in a week or two.

With the exception of a brief increase in the months prior to the end of incentives, EV sales in the US had plateaued prior to the demise of Federal subsidies. Manufacturers have been announcing moves away from electrified vehicles and they’ve been delaying and/or eliminating electrified vehicles from their lineups. I’ll toss a No into the hat for increasing EV sales due to the current situation.

As far as fuel prices, one should take a breath and run some numbers. Let’s start with a person who drives a vehicle 12,000 miles a year and gets 25mpg. They’ll buy 480 gallons of gas in a year. At $3/gal that will cost $1440. At $6/gal it will cost $2880. The difference in this simple example is $1440/yr. Of course there’s no guarantee that we’ll see $6/gal gas, outside of California and they would have started at closer to $5/gal a couple of weeks ago, and there’s no guarantee that gas would remain at $6/gal for any length of time.

So one would need to ask themselves, “How much of a loss am I willing to take on my current vehicle and how much am I willing to to spend on a new vehicle in order to possibly spend $120/mo less on fuel for 3 months, 6 months, a year or not at all?”

Personally, I’m not sure what gas price would compel me to consider an electrified vehicle. We’re currently planning to eliminate our last and only remaining PHEV from our fleet. Even at double current prices, $3.44 yesterday at Costco, I might try to consolidate our trips and errands to reduce the number of miles driven. Frankly, an additional $1500/year in fuel costs isn’t going to motivate me to buy a different vehicle or put solar panels on the roof.

My $.02.

 

[No Ice]

my $2.00 Australian dollars worth,
my other half has a Kona 1.6 t petrol, It gets 7 km,per liter at prices here now in Australia of $2,70 c a lt that's 0.38 c per KM for fuel.
My electric Kona gets 7km per kwk, charged from my solar with a FET of 0.07 c per kwh , that's $0.01 c per km.
a 6.600kw solar is $7,000 here with a 5 kw inverter and generates around 10,000kwhr per year here
I drive around 28,000km a year, so that's a saving on gas of maybe $10,000 a year, so here solar and an EV is very well worth it if people want to have control over the car and power costs