Middle East Conflict vs. EVs

[brianc35]

I'm sure you all have seen what's going on in the middle east by now.
This isn't to get political. Rather, it's focus on impacts to the economy, oil supply, and thus it's long-tail impact to EVs.

IRGC says Iran in ‘complete control’ of Strait of Hormuz amid Trump threats

One-fifth of the global oil is shipped through the strait, which remains effectively closed amid US-Israeli war on Iran.

www.aljazeera.com

The main channel for 1/5 of the world's oil is in the middle of all this. Politicians will say they own it - no, we own it/control it - and so on for as long as this will go on, and the end result is fewer ships making their way out.

The US/Canada don't import a lot of oil from this path to the best of my knowledge.
How much oil does the United States import (and why)? says only about 12% are non-North American imports.

Gas prices have gone up a couple dimes over the past few days but nothing significant.

Will this conflict - if it lasts long enough - drive an impact on the struggling EV market of 2026? Could we see another wave of new owners getting in line to go electric?

What price point does oil/gasoline need to rise to in order to start influencing purchasing decisions?

 

[R P]

Oil prices will be back down in a few weeks. They are already down from the highs. Waiting on when the Strait of Hormuz opnes again. US has just stated they will assist with security and escorting ships.

Biggest threat right now is from the Iranian one-way kamikaze drones, which are very difficult to detect on their path incl their dynamic launch sites (trucks, etc). Iran seems to have a large supply of these and until they are stopped, ships and other targets, short and long range, are vulnerable.

So yes, gas prices will go up in the short term. But that will not last.

 

[bwilson4web]

EVs are the ultimate ‘flex fuel’ which means we have alternatives.

• Grid power
• Home solar
• 3x miles per dollar over my last Prius

Bob Wilson

 

[No Ice]

EVs are the ultimate ‘flex fuel’ which means we have alternatives.
View attachment 28438

• Grid power
• Home solar
• 3x miles per dollar over my last Prius

Bob Wilson

Hi Bob, yes EV,s are the only to go to get of the fossil fuel train, petrol has just gone up 8% here in Australia to $1.85c per liter $ aus.
I am still charging my Kona for 0.072 c per Kwhr from my solar, the 0.072 c is the FIT i get, so fuel cost for me is around 0.01c per km.
I have a Zappi smart charger, set on 100% solar .so NO import from the grid for car charging at all.Jim

 

[Landshark]

One thing is certain, the outcome will be uncertain. Another near certainty is that the hot topic will be something completely different in a week or two.

With the exception of a brief increase in the months prior to the end of incentives, EV sales in the US had plateaued prior to the demise of Federal subsidies. Manufacturers have been announcing moves away from electrified vehicles and they’ve been delaying and/or eliminating electrified vehicles from their lineups. I’ll toss a No into the hat for increasing EV sales due to the current situation.

As far as fuel prices, one should take a breath and run some numbers. Let’s start with a person who drives a vehicle 12,000 miles a year and gets 25mpg. They’ll buy 480 gallons of gas in a year. At $3/gal that will cost $1440. At $6/gal it will cost $2880. The difference in this simple example is $1440/yr. Of course there’s no guarantee that we’ll see $6/gal gas, outside of California and they would have started at closer to $5/gal a couple of weeks ago, and there’s no guarantee that gas would remain at $6/gal for any length of time.

So one would need to ask themselves, “How much of a loss am I willing to take on my current vehicle and how much am I willing to to spend on a new vehicle in order to possibly spend $120/mo less on fuel for 3 months, 6 months, a year or not at all?”

Personally, I’m not sure what gas price would compel me to consider an electrified vehicle. We’re currently planning to eliminate our last and only remaining PHEV from our fleet. Even at double current prices, $3.44 yesterday at Costco, I might try to consolidate our trips and errands to reduce the number of miles driven. Frankly, an additional $1500/year in fuel costs isn’t going to motivate me to buy a different vehicle or put solar panels on the roof.

My $.02.

 

[No Ice]

my $2.00 Australian dollars worth,
my other half has a Kona 1.6 t petrol, It gets 7 km,per liter at prices here now in Australia of $2,70 c a lt that's 0.38 c per KM for fuel.
My electric Kona gets 7km per kwk, charged from my solar with a FET of 0.07 c per kwh , that's $0.01 c per km.
a 6.600kw solar is $7,000 here with a 5 kw inverter and generates around 10,000kwhr per year here
I drive around 28,000km a year, so that's a saving on gas of maybe $10,000 a year, so here solar and an EV is very well worth it if people want to have control over the car and power costs

 

[Landshark]

It’s different here. Gas is $3.50 a gallon, but it’s been $3.00 or less for the past year. 25 miles per gallon, or 40km/gal is about $.09/km.

We installed a 4.5kW solar array with an 8kW inverter that cost $20,000 after all credits and incentives. It produced around 6000kwh’s annually that offset $.10-12/kwh electricity with a value of $600-700. That’s the problem with offsetting cheap electricity. Where we are now the power company only pays 50% of the going rate for solar production, so it isn’t an attractive proposition to install solar.

 

[No Ice]

Hi Landshark, i am sorry to here you paid so much for your solar system, before i retired i was a solar system designer and installing supervisor for a major company here in Australia ,average prices for the USA are around
A 4.5 kW solar system in the US typically costs between $12,375 and $15,000 on average, before incentives, based on 2025 data. After applying the 30% federal tax credit, this cost can drop significantly to roughly $8,600 – $10,500. Prices may vary based on location, with costs often falling between this Range
I am mystified why you have an 8 kw inverter and only 4.5kw of panels, this means the inverter is only going to achieve 50% of its efficiency rating, the standard desine for a 4.5 kw system would only use a 4 kw inverter because due to wiring and panel loses the will never achieve there rated output after the first 6 months and during 9 months of the year perhaps only 50,to 60% of this, so if you are getting 6,000 kw hr you are getting average output for your system, good output for 4.5 kw of panels and a 4kw inverter would be 7500kwh per year,
sorry to have to give you the bad news,

 

[bwilson4web]

A 4.5 kW solar system in the US typically costs between $12,375 and $15,000 on average,

Could you break that out for equipment and labor?

My $60,000, 4.8 kW (peak, consisted of

• 16 - 400 W, microcontroller panels
• 13 kWh - solar battery
• controller with grid and emergency generator interface
• Smart panel with remote control monitoring and ON/OFF
• Solar panel install crew, three
• Electrical work crew, two, and two visits

Bob Wilson

 

[No Ice]

Could you break that out for equipment and labor?

My $60,000, 4.8 kW (peak, consisted of

• 16 - 400 W, microcontroller panels
• 13 kWh - solar battery
• controller with grid and emergency generator interface
• Smart panel with remote control monitoring and ON/OFF
• Solar panel install crew, three
• Electrical work crew, two, and two visits

Bob Wilson

Hi Bob this is a quick workup, for more info i would need all the specs for everything, which also need your address for me to satellite view your house, so best done with PM messaging ,would name of panels and the MC,s inverter name and specs solar battery and specs, gateway for battery and inverter controller, name and spec of smart controller, any new wiring needed , single or three phase power, no of hrs. for crew on site photos of everything as well with before and after if possible, average prices for your system installed someware in mainland USA are
Estimated Cost Breakdown (USD)

• 4.8 kW Solar Array (16 x 400W Panels): ~$7,500 – $10,000 (Panels + Racking + Microinverters/Optimizers).
• 13 kWh Battery System + Controller/Gateway: ~$9,000 – $13,000.
• Smart Panel & Monitoring (On/Off capabilities): ~$1,000 – $2,500.
• Labor (Two+ Visits, Solar & Electrical Crews): ~$2,000 – $4,000+.
• Total Pre-Incentive Estimate: $19,500 – $29,500+
• After 30% Federal Tax Credit (approx.): ~$13,650 – $20,650+.
  Jim

 

[Landshark]

i am sorry to here you paid so much for your solar system,

I am mystified why you have an 8 kw inverter and only 4.5kw of panels,

I suppose our system wasn’t “typical”. We got several estimates, the others were higher and/or included lower quality components. Perhaps your figures are inaccurate.

The 8K Outback Radian Inverter was selected in part because we planned for the possibility of adding more panels at a later date which would give us just under 7,000 watts. We also had a 48V battery bank in place from the previous installation.

We no longer own that home and have no plans to install solar on our current home. Thanks for your helpful advice.