Having fun with Autoline Daily

bwilson4web

bwilson4web

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One of my favorite podcast is Autoline Daily as a daily reader. They pretty well report what Wards gives them and in the past, sometimes not so accurate with backhanded comments about the Prius. Then Wednesday they reported:
Code: 
U.S. Green Car Sales YTD
Hybrid     164,000 -7.3%
BEV         65,100 +36%
Plug-In     57,600 +38%
Fuel Cell    1,400 +36%
TOTAL      288,100 +7.7%
Feeling a little snarky, I posted this:

Bob Wilson Says:
July 19th, 2018 at 7:22 am
Tesla is having success solving their production problems. Their Q2, press release (see link) filed with the SEC reports “Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, . . . For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), ”

We are seeing former Prius owners taking delivery of their Model 3 and happy with the handling and performance. Cosmetic issues are handled by Tesla Service under warranty. Their Prius often join the used market which suppresses new hybrid sales.

We replaced our hybrids in 2016 with two plug-in hybrids which we drive hard in EV mode. At half the cost per mile, reaching posted speeds ASAP makes no noise and doesn’t pick our pocket at the pump. When the gassers catch up, we slide behind using dynamic cruise control to follow the cop bait.​

It the Ward's numbers are accurate, Tesla provided 53339 / 65100 ~= 82% of all BEVs . . . in just Q2. Add their Q1 numbers and the math gets funny.

I also pointed out that many new Model 3 owners are adding to the used hybrid market. This suppresses new hybrid sales.

Bob Wilson
 
David Green said:
Might you be mixing production numbers, with sales numbers?
Click to expand...
If we see a similar change in the opposite direction in Q3, it would confirm Tesla held back product to extend the tax credit to the end of the year. Regardless, it shows Tesla has become the BEV leader in the USA.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
If we see a similar change in the opposite direction in Q3, it would confirm Tesla held back product to extend the tax credit to the end of the year. Regardless, it shows Tesla has become the BEV leader in the USA.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

Without a doubt Tesla is the BEV leader in the USA... There are no real viable competitor... Just like Toyota is the hybrid leader. Bob you really like to dig into numbers, I have a chart for you to figure out on Tesla, as I have not been able to figure it out... Where did the 28K cars go? Now Tesla acknowledges some some cars in transit, but where are the rest of the missing cars? I assume there are some test drive cars at service centers, I noticed the 2 here in Bellevue, WA have CA license plates (because they are licensed, means title transferred-sold? Who owns them, and was the $7500 tax credit claimed?) , but the ever climbing delta of missing cars is hard to explain.
 

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Nice spreadsheet but I have a few observations and questions:
  • "Prior" row - shows 4,550 sold cars without production numbers. This puts a negative bias in the "Cars produced" totals at the end. Since this is an image, I don't know if the 383,789 "Cars produced" at the bottom has an adjustment.
  • "Cars sold" - is this limited to a geographical area? We know Teslas have been sold outside the USA.
If we can get a spreadsheet copy, I would start by plotting both the "Cars sold" and "Cars produced". Then I would experiment with setting "Cars produced" to "Cars sold" on the "Prior" row. But it might be easier just to null the "Prior" row. Finally, I would investigate the source of the "Car sold."

We know Tesla has installed SuperChargers in the EU (and Britain) as well as China. I would use those maps to make sure their sales were included.

There have been natural disasters including floods. I would try to find out if some Tesla were flood damaged.

I would also ask @Domenick to take a peek. He and his team have been tracking these numbers for awhile and may have some insights.

Bob Wilson
 
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bwilson4web said:
Nice spreadsheet but I have a few observations and questions:
  • "Prior" row - shows 4,550 sold cars without production numbers. This puts a negative bias in the "Cars produced" totals at the end. Since this is an image, I don't know if the 383,789 "Cars produced" at the bottom has an adjustment.
  • "Cars sold" - is this limited to a geographical area? We know Teslas have been sold outside the USA.
If we can get a spreadsheet copy, I would start by plotting both the "Cars sold" and "Cars produced". Then I would experiment with setting "Cars produced" to "Cars sold" on the "Prior" row. But it might be easier just to null the "Prior" row. Finally, I would investigate the source of the "Car sold."

We know Tesla has installed SuperChargers in the EU (and Britain) as well as China. I would use those maps to make sure their sales were included.

There have been natural disasters including floods. I would try to find out if some Tesla were flood damaged.

I would also ask @Domenick to take a peek. He and his team have been tracking these numbers for awhile and may have some insights.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...
Sorry, its not my spreadsheet, I was just trying to make sense of the numbers, there are obviously a lot of cars in Limbo... Bears are reporting that Tesla right now has at least 8K Model 3's that do not have buyers. We will have to wait and see if demand can keep up with supply.
 
David Green said:
Bears are reporting that Tesla right now has at least 8K Model 3's that do not have buyers.
Click to expand...
Share the source?

The reason I ask is 8K Model 3 would be a significant inventory and Fremont does not have the storage parking area. Perhaps the bears have found them?

Bob Wilson
 
David Green said:
Bears are reporting that Tesla right now has at least 8K Model 3's that do not have buyers. We will have to wait and see if demand can keep up with supply.
Click to expand...

I used to check in with bears for info, but they put out so much mis and disinformation, I eventually realized it wasn't worth my time. Pretty sure Tesla, which is still sitting on hundreds of thousands of orders, doesn't have 8K cars built without buyers.

bwilson4web said:
Share the source?

The reason I ask is 8K Model 3 would be a significant inventory and Fremont does not have the storage parking area. Perhaps the bears have found them?

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

Yes, bears have found some transit point inventories, where car are collected before being shipped in various directions (like pretty much every car company has), and trying to make the case that they are orphans.
 
bwilson4web said:
Share the source?

The reason I ask is 8K Model 3 would be a significant inventory and Fremont does not have the storage parking area. Perhaps the bears have found them?

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

Interestingly it seems the bears have found a couple storage yards, in Lanthrop, and Burbank with between 2-6K cars currently. Although I am bearish on Tesla, I am not a fraud theorist, but I find this activity very strange, as neither of these locations are near the overseas shipping port Tesla uses around Long Beach, or in the rail loading area Tesla uses. Also why would they be moving these cars by truck multiple times? At GM's high production factories cars are loaded directly on train cars, or trucks and taken directly to their destination ending. A couple of the bears are staking out the 2 sites, and have witnessed constant streams of cars going in, but none coming out. I find this just bizarre. There is no reason to hold back cars now, no tax credit expiration, If this was indeed a distribution center, I could see it building up with 500 or so cars to sort the batches, with a constant stream in and out. This seems like a bit more a of a storage play... for who knows what reason?
 
Domenick said:
I used to check in with bears for info, but they put out so much mis and disinformation, I eventually realized it wasn't worth my time. Pretty sure Tesla, which is still sitting on hundreds of thousands of orders, doesn't have 8K cars built without buyers.



Yes, bears have found some transit point inventories, where car are collected before being shipped in various directions (like pretty much every car company has), and trying to make the case that they are orphans.
Click to expand...

I think the bears have some pretty good sources for data, and seem to be right more often then not, but you are right, there is lots of BS too... I am bearish because I believe Tesla is poorly managed, and inept at manufacturing in volume, but I do not believe they are intentionally committing fraud.
 
bwilson4web said:
Sources:
There may be others but I get the impression of 'tweets', not a careful survey.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

I find it strange with all the supposed sold cars, that they are not being rushed to their final destination as fast as logistically possible to gather the revenue? What reason could you think of for that, Bob? The fact that the storage inventory is growing daily flies in the face of all reason. Maybe its like the cardboard and garbage at Fremont, Tesla management is just logistically overwhelmed?
 
David Green said:
not being rushed to their final destination as fast as logistically possible to gather the revenue? What reason could you think of for that, Bob?
Click to expand...
Boats and even rail roads have a different concept of lead time. There will always be some float between manufacture and delivery so I'm not too concerned. We've seen that with the early Gen-3 Prius with ships taking ~6 weeks to transit the Pacific and longer to deliver to the East Coast.

Now if bears will begin posting a series of drone photos so we can measure the daily change in the storage lots, I'll be more open to their suggestions.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Boats and even rail roads have a different concept of lead time. There will always be some float between manufacture and delivery so I'm not too concerned. We've seen that with the early Gen-3 Prius with ships taking ~6 weeks to transit the Pacific and longer to deliver to the East Coast.

Now if bears will begin posting a series of drone photos so we can measure the daily change in the storage lots, I'll be more open to their suggestions.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

Yes, I agree about shipping, having shipped racing equipment around the world, there are some timing issues. That being said, Tesla claims firm orders (demand) for outpaces supply, so why is there no pressure to deliver? It looks to me like the Lantrop site is nearly full, I guess they could start parking cars on the grass, and appears this was stocked in a very haphazard manner, certainly not efficient for sorting etc... For grins I am attaching a satellite photo from GM's truck plant where you can see the storage lot, and railroad loading dock in action. Notice they are loading 7 trains at the same time, and how organized the trucks are in sections for each train? This GM plant produces 1500 trucks a day, not much margin for error at that level of production. GM's system looks a lot cheaper, and more efficient. This has always been my problem with Tesla, no matter where you look you can see a huge lack of organization and even flow. BTW, I do not see any garbage piles around this GM plant either, or tents...
 

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Of course another hypothesis is Tesla withheld delivery in Q2 to avoid overrunning the 200,000 limit triggering the Federal Tax runout. Storing them offsite makes a lot of sense.

Drones are affordable and unless there are specific airspace limits, a series of dated phots would help.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Of course another hypothesis is Tesla withheld delivery in Q2 to avoid overrunning the 200,000 limit triggering the Federal Tax runout. Storing them offsite makes a lot of sense.

Drones are affordable and unless there are specific airspace limits, a series of dated phots would help.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

Yeah, daily satellite photos would be nice too. One of the bears spent the day at the Burbank site and said they were many trucks that came in full and dropped off, all 7 trucks he saw left empty. This is really weird, not a shipping port of rail depot, Why would the trucks be making rounds to Fremont? This makes no sense economically.
 
David Green said:
A couple of the bears are staking out the 2 sites, and have witnessed constant streams of cars going in, but none coming out.
Click to expand...

Unless there is a black hole on the site ;), one might suspect that the "bears" are making up B.S., which would be entirely consistent with the behavior of short-selling anti-Tesla FUDsters.

Occam's Razor shaves in the direction of just more made-up FUD.
​
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Unless there is a black hole on the site ;), one might suspect that the "bears" are making up B.S., which would be entirely consistent with the behavior of short-selling anti-Tesla FUDsters.

Occam's Razor shaves in the direction of just more made-up FUD.
​
Click to expand...

I would agree with you, because like I said, I am bearish on Tesla, but not to the point of thinking Tesla is a fraud... The problem is the pictures and video that have been posted the last couple days, and my experience with logistics say this method of stockpiling cars is strange. The areal images clearly show the lots are nearly full, and not setup in an organized manner. If you look at my earlier post where you see GM Pickups at the Ft Wayne IN plant, the trucks are all lined up and sorted by which train they go on, and they are loading 7 trains at a time. Basically when a truck leaves the GM plant they are going out in the parking lot, and then directly on the train. From counting the trucks it appears to me that the trucks are in the lot for less then 2 days before leaving.


Now, there is no doubt the bears are full of mis-information, and fake news, but some of the information is hard to argue. For example the guy giving the daily production, his numbers line up with every other piece of data I have seen, and over weeks you can see flow patterns. I guess what I am getting at is that I do not believe the fraud theory, but I do believe that Tesla is seeing resistance on the RWD Model 3 LR, and had built more then they currently have orders for in the USA. I am guessing most of the new orders in the last 2 weeks are for the AWD, and P models. When Elon stated yesterday that they got 5K Model 3 orders in the last week, that is much weaker then I would have expected, as in 2 weeks they opened the configurator to all of North America, so anyone that wanted a Model 3, but was not previously on the waiting list could order, and configure immediately. The other strange detail, is why is Musk responding to bears over and over again yesterday on twitter. Thats weird to see a CEO of a 50B company, responding to people that are obviously just negative. Go tweet the CEO of any other carmakers with some crap and see if you get a response?

Bottom Line, I think the analysts are really stocked with ammunition for the earnings call in a couple weeks, and they are going to be looking for clear and concise answers from Elon. I am also wondering why supercharger construction has slowed so much, with all these new cars hitting the road, superchargers should be going crazy, but right now there are only 16 locations under construction in North America. Electrify America is not even ramped up yet (they just hired their design/build contractors 2 months ago), and they have more then double that under construction just in the USA. Also following the lawyer of Martin Tripp, he seems to be getting more and more reports from insiders of material activities going on inside Tesla, this could be a bluff, but somehow I doubt it as he is not a cracker jack lawyer, and I feel he is trying to rip the scab off the entire operation. Man, Tesla is like watching a drama series unfold, there are so many moving parts, its hard to keep up, and I feel afraid to miss an episode. Such a waste of time, but yet so entertaining at the same time.
 
It's really amazing how much time some people spend elaborating conspiracy theories.

I'm very glad that Tesla is, finally, rapidly ramping up both production and sales/deliveries of the Model 3. That there are increasing numbers of cars in holding areas is of course a natural reflection of that ramp up. Duh.

Anything beyond that is merely the latest attempt by the anti-Tesla FUDster crowd in their attempts to prop up their ongoing conspiracy theory that Tesla is making more cars than it can sell. I've seen that B.S. before during the year I spent reading Tesla-related blog posts and articles on Seeking Alpha on a daily basis. It doesn't smell any better than it did before.
​
 
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