Tesla stock price

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Teslas have always had a vandalizing risk. It wasn't until other verbalized their displeasure at me that I got worried and increased my risk mitigation.

Bob Wilson
 
So Tesla shares rocketed up today, though all the auto stocks, including GM and Rivian, also had a very good day. We'll see if it holds when the Q1 sales stats come out, which by all reports should be very bad for Tesla even as global EV sales continue to rise. I've seen educated speculation that it will be Tesla's lowest sales quarter in over 2 years. Ouch. You can't be a meme stock forever, can you?
 
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Trump just said today no tariffs for SK, now that Hyundai is building a steel plant in the US. With no tariffs on Hyundai/Kia that should put further pressure on Tesla. Stock might drop again tomorrow.
 
Trump just said today no tariffs for SK, now that Hyundai is building a steel plant in the US. With no tariffs on Hyundai/Kia that should put further pressure on Tesla. Stock might drop again tomorrow.
My time scale is a little longer than today's news even though I've 'on paper' lost ~$30. I'm holding to the end of April after the 2025 Q1 report and other effects become more evident.

Bob Wilson
 
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Notice how durable the upswing is since 1980. Not coincidentally that is the start of the 401K. Supply and demand. Billions pour into the market with people not paying any attention to where it goes. This constant upward pressure makes the thought process, 'stocks are going up' 'market fundamentals' kind of dicey. If you put money in the bank in 1997, needing it in 2012 you might have been better off than the market. God forbid you invested in 1965 and needed it in 15 years
If the moron in chief manages to break the unthinking confidence in the market we could be in for a monster bear market like 66-82. Not a big deal if you are 35, but 55, not so much.
My point is 'people' expect up to be normal. Tesla and many other stocks are riding this 40 year wave, and that may not turn out to be the case for long.
We,as always, shall see.
 
The economy isn't the same as it was 50 years ago. I don't think looking at history is a correct assumption any more. 401k's were mentioned above.
But there's a lot more to it than that.

People are more involved with their money than ever before. It's digital, not cash in hand. There's no physical things (bonds, stocks, etc) to hold any more. Prices are instant.

The fed is more volatile and reactive rate-wise and circuit-breakers to to stop things like 2000 and 2018 from happening ever again. It's virtually impossible to have a crash of 29 ever again.

Interest rates are low. Even at 'high' rates we have been seeing the past few years are still low compared to several historic times in the past 50 years.
And with that, the value of the dollar/CPI is ever-growing, so the trend up even at a light slope is normal just to break even in purchasing power.

The thing with Tesla is that the cars are just a derivative outcome of the real company - a technology company. Thinking of tesla as a car company is not correct (IMO). The tech and IP they hold is the real value.
We'll see this tech transpire into other use cases. No, not just driverless semi-trucks and all the other hype we keep hearing about, but into other real-world use cases like removing human error from things that are error-prone.
Surgery.
Air traffic scheduling.
1000s of other use cases could come to mind to augment the human condition. Just like a traffic scan, it can 'see things coming' before the human can.

Energy storage/battery tech and charging networks that are being established, along side starlink and other wireless tech, it's going to disrupt every traditional company today like comcast, frontier, cox, etc. cable channels are already dead with the apps replacing it. They are dead in the water if starlink can scale and meet the bandwidth and price point. Why would i pay to have lines run to my house when i can just get it over the air?
who has a cat5 cable from their router to their phone or laptop? no one any more. 20 years ago? at least 50%?

In the next 20 years, we're going to see a lot of disruption where connectivity as we know it (physical wires, plugs) is going to be obsolete.
On-the-road charging (think, huge Q chargers like your phone takes in the console of your car)
New government mandates for 'energy star' houses / new construction going to solar roof shingles (bye bye traditional asphalt shingles) aren't out of the question.
Retrofit companies will make a killing. And like most advancements, the 'skilled' worker needs to change. Not only do they need to lay shingles, they need to be DC experts running cabling and wiring up ATSwitches to the main box and all that.

This is why Tesla is valuable. They have pioneered a lot of this tech. And they have the buying power to swoop up startups with better ideas (like google and facebook and all the rest have done to stay relevant). And they have the scale to distribute it en masse quickly and profitably.

The 3/S/X/Y/Roadster/truck, is merely the first generation consumer container for some of the Tesla tech.
 
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Cathie Wood (ARK) still hyping TSLA. Said today it should reach $2600 in 5 years!!

With the new Y that will be available soon, some good improvements. But they really need a HUD. Many people won't buy the M3 or Y because it only has that centre screen.
 
Cathie Wood (ARK) still hyping TSLA. Said today it should reach $2600 in 5 years!!

With the new Y that will be available soon, some good improvements. But they really need a HUD. Many people won't buy the M3 or Y because it only has that centre screen.
The lack of driver-centric instrumentation used to be the biggest impediment to my purchase of a Tesla...
 
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Cathie Wood is like the Paris Hilton of the stock market. Hot for a minute and then gone and no one remembers her relevancy. lol

I say that as a 2021 purchaser/bag holder of ARKK and still down 50%. letting it ride at this point.
 
Cathie Wood is like the Paris Hilton of the stock market. Hot for a minute and then gone and no one remembers her relevancy. lol

I say that as a 2021 purchaser/bag holder of ARKK and still down 50%. letting it ride at this point.
I agree, and wonder why some of the business networks like CNBC and Bloomberg keep bringing her on, as if what she says means something.
 
Cathie Wood (ARK) still hyping TSLA. Said today it should reach $2600 in 5 years!!
With a different CEO and some divestures, YES!
  • non-EV products divested into independent, public companies
    • they can still subcontract specific services between themselves
    • substantial employee stock options
  • stockholders choose which company to divert their shares
I've made my choice by short-selling TSLA.

Bob Wilson
 
The notion that Tesla isn't a car company is ludicrous. I'll believe it when it has something else it can actually sell -- so far, it's all just vaporware from a CEO famous for not keeping his promises.

That said, Trump did Musk a favor with Thursday's tariff announcement, which was reflected in the relative stock movements of Tesla, GM and Ford. We'll see if it holds, given that Tesla's sales declines in much of the world have looked pretty severe.
 
The notion that Tesla isn't a car company is ludicrous. I'll believe it when it has something else it can actually sell -- so far, it's all just vaporware from a CEO famous for not keeping his promises.

That said, Trump did Musk a favor with Thursday's tariff announcement, which was reflected in the relative stock movements of Tesla, GM and Ford. We'll see if it holds, given that Tesla's sales declines in much of the world have looked pretty severe.
Geez, it sure is hard to figure out exactly where all this is going. But it does not look for car companies, at least in the short term. Sounds like cars, not just EVs are going to be a lot more expensive going forward. I am glad that I am not looking to buy anything for some time, very happy to stay with my Ioniq 6 and Solterra for a few more years.
 
Geez, it sure is hard to figure out exactly where all this is going. But it does not look for car companies, at least in the short term. Sounds like cars, not just EVs are going to be a lot more expensive going forward. I am glad that I am not looking to buy anything for some time, very happy to stay with my Ioniq 6 and Solterra for a few more years.

If the Trump tariffs do stay in place, pretty much every vehicle will get at least several thousand dollars more expensive and all but the wealthy will be really screwed if they want a new vehicle, since even those built in the US use lots of foreign parts.Those made outside the US get hit worst, giving an EV price advantage to Tesla, Rivian, most of the Koreans and some of the already pricier Big 3 products: EV pickups, Lyriq, Escalade IQ, a few others. But every car, truck and SUV sold in the US is about to get a serious price bump, thanks to the business genius in the White House.
 
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