I'll repeat the comments I posted to the InsideEVs News article (posting as RoadRunner48):
I flatly don't believe Tesla will make cars with a battery pack which can't be replaced if it goes bad. Yes, the presenters did confusingly talk about it as if the pack would be integrated into the chassis of the car, but the images they showed on the screen during that segment of the presentation clearly showed the pack as a separate thing, with a cover put over it before it's fastened to the two-part cast chassis.
The idea of using the battery pack to stiffen and reinforce the car is exactly what Tesla did with the Model S/X packs, which were bolted on. Now, I do recall that for their trial battery swap, Tesla did have to modify the MSs which were capable of swapping. I never saw any details about exactly what modifications were necessary. Perhaps Tesla also glues or spot-welds the pack into place, in addition to bolting it on? Well, whatever they did, they were able to swap out battery packs in the MS/MX, and I'm confident they'll be able to do the same with this new design, which is actually just going back to the pre-Model 3 design.
I mean, really, it makes no sense to design a
BEV so that you can't swap out the battery pack if it goes bad. That would mean having to junk the entire car every time that happened, and for what? What advantage would there be? I submit that makes no sense at all.
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I'm not buying that the Plaid Model S will use the new 4680 cells. As Dom pointed out, the cells are rather too tall to fit in the existing battery pack, and what would Tesla do, reduce the ground clearance? No. Tesla would have to redesign the entire car, especially if they're gonna use that giant cast chassis to mate with the 4680 battery pack. That would no longer be the Model S; it would be something else. Of course, auto makers do sometimes start making an entirely new model but give it the same name as the model it's replacing, and perhaps Tesla will do that. But if so, that will certainly be confusing!
How can Tesla get to a 520 mile range for the Plaid Model S without using the 4680 cells? As one of the podcasters pointed out, Lucid is claiming to have that, obviously without Tesla's new cells. The Model S was designed 9 years ago, for heaven's sake! The energy density of Panasonic's 18650 and 2170 cells has improved enough for Tesla to put 120 or 125 kWh of batteries in the Model S, if they want to. If Lucid can do it, Tesla certainly can.
I have predicted in the past that the Plaid Model S will use 2170 cells, which will make using the sort of cooling system the Model 3 uses easier. We do know the Plaid Model S has improved cooling. It may also be that switching to Model 3 pack architecture allows for better pack-level energy density, and if so then Tesla can squeeze in even more kWh. I'm sticking to my prediction for 2170 cells.
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Martyn: Thank you for raising the subject of fast-charging speed! Yes, I was quite disappointed that the presentation said very little about the improved heat conductance of these cells, and how that will enable much faster fast-charging. Will that be one of the things Tesla will be revealing in the coming weeks, or are they going to keep the degree (pun intended) of improvement in cooling a trade secret until they reveal a quantum jump in faster charging with the next generation of Superchargers?
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Kyle: Thanks for pointing out that the image they showed of the Plaid Model S was just a stock image of the current Model S. It doesn't even have the enlarged front air scoops that the prototype Plaid Model S's have. So yeah, we can be almost completely certain that the actual Plaid Model S will look somewhat different than the current design. The interesting question, worth plenty of speculation, is just
how different it's going to look!
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Re 0-60 time for the VW I.D. 4: I totally agree that VW did the smart thing by not trying to challenge Tesla for the jackrabbit start time. It's a family car; the range and fast-charging speed will be much more important than the 0-60 time, which will still be significantly faster than gasmobiles in this segment. Let us EV advocates and fans remember, it's those gasmobiles which every BEV should be competing against, not other BEVs!
Apparently the I.D. 4 won't compete with the Model 3/Y for fast-charging speed, but that's a consequence of a lower-power powertrain. If the battery pack isn't designed for high power jackrabbit starts, then it's hardly surprising it can't handle the higher power of 250+ kW charging. 125 max kW charging isn't great, but again this isn't a high-performance car. VW had to save money somewhere, and the lower fast-charging speed is one place it saved money. I'm not going to "ding" them for a lower fast-charging speed in a car aimed at the masses.
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Re California supposedly banning ICEVs by 2035? Frankly, who cares what politicians announce as plans for 15 years from now? We see this sort of thing in various countries, as well as California, all the time. It's just aspirational; it doesn't actually mean anything. Politicians 15 years from today won't feel they are bound to goals set by politicians today. Also, look what happened back in 1999-2000 when California's CARB tried to mandate that all auto makers had to offer a certain percentage of their automobile lines zero-emission cars. That was definitely premature, and auto makers successfully pressured California's legislature to roll back that mandate.
So really, this is virtually meaningless. Governments, whether nations or States, should stick to gradually tightening emission limits and offering tax incentives on EVs, to push the EV revolution along. Trying to order everybody to stop driving ICEVs by a certain date... that's just not realistic. And absolute ban would create a backlash, and lots of court cases where people would (often quite correctly) point out that their business or their job depends on using ICEVs.
BEVs can't replace all ICEVs at once, or even in 15 years. As an EV advocate I'd love to think that's possible, but it's entirely unrealistic. There will continue to be, at a minimum, exceptions for certain people; hardship exemptions and other exceptions for people who make a good case for BEVs not working for them.