ICE car sales likely to be over in 2023

[SouthernDude]

What you describe exists with the Tesla Supercharger network.

Go to a site (Google it) "abetterrouteplanner.com", plug in data for a current Tesla product and start running synthetic trips from (for example) Halifax NS to Los Angeles CA.

This data is also in the vehicle...and when routing to a Supercharger, one can monitor the number of available bays whilst the car will "run inefficiently" about 30 minutes back to pre warm the battery...and when you plug in, there is simply the (transparent to the user) car/charger interconnection while your credit card on file with your online Tesla account gets charged.

Supercharger energy is expensive, especially in Ontario where it costs 44 cents a minute (can't sell by the kWh in Ontario) (charge rate above 60 kW)...so a 20 minute session will cost around $10...but if one plugs in at (for example) 10% SOC the (V3) Supercharger will start dumping energy in at a rate of 250 kW...and 20 minutes is all it takes to add about 60% SOC (all figures based on 2018 long range rear wheel drive Model 3...which I now consider an antique compared to a new (post mid Oct 2020) Model 3).

Edit: spelling.

Tesla's supercharger network is farther along than the CCS network, but there are still big gaps in it. If someone has to take some 30-40 mile detour to make a tesla work, then there isn't enough station locations. EVs need to be more convenient, not less to outcompete gas.

 

[SouthernDude]

A used TM3 with 300+ miles of range would solve your issues...as their Supercharger network provides the DCFC network support.

Even with only 250 mile rated range, the trips to your family shouldn't be an issue.

Leave home at 100% and drive to arrive at 10%...then plug in at your destination.

I spent $190 at my son in laws place, installed a 40 amp cb, 51 feet of 8 gauge wire and a 14-50 outlet in his garage...plus a digital in line meter to track our energy usage which we pay back at the courtesy rate of 20 cents a kWh.

Maybe, but I can't afford a 38-42k car.

 

[navguy12]

The cell phone has been available for 47 years and only 67% of the world owns one. Why is it taking so long? cell phone are a lot less expensive than cars!

Yes, the first call using a cell phone was back in 1973.

As a percentage of the world population, how many people owned any sort of telephone in 1973? My guess, less than 67%.

When can the start date of the modern EV era be pegged at? 2008 (V1 Tesla Roadster)? 2010 (V1 Nissan Leaf)? 2012 (V1 Tesla Model S)?

IMO it is the Nissan Leaf, in 2010.

So it took 10 years for 2% market share.

Now that (Tesla Model Y as of May 2020) battery (pack level) costs are $108/kWh and a path to 54% cheaper pack costs within 36 months has been announced, I'll go on a limb and say Tesla's battery pack costs will be $50/kWh in the summer of 2023.

Current ICE drivetrain costs (engine, pollution controls, fuel tank, exhaust system, cooling system, drive shafts, transmission, et al) can be considered "a nickle a watt"...which translates to $5,000 for a 136 hp (100 kW) drivetrain.

A 2021 Honda Civic (Google search) indicates a top optional engine with 180 hp (132 kW)...which costs Honda ($5000 × 1.32) $6,600.

Assuming $50/kWh in the summer of 2023, the 80 kWh (75 kWh usable) battery pack in a long range Tesla Model 3/Y will cost $4,000...and a single motor example has 283 hp.

Two years ago, that 283 hp motor cost $754...so lets assume the cost efficiencies over the last two years means that motor now only costs $700.

350 mile range, 283 hp drivetrain that costs ($4,000/battery pack; $700/motor; $350/drive unit other than motor; $500/sundry electronics) $5,550.

100 more horsepower...is "refueled" at home at night (don't underestimate all the time wasted gassing up an ICE car)...in Ontario, costs 2.9 cents per km to operate ($29 to drive 1,000 km)...all at a wholesale drivetrain cost that is about $1,000 less than the Civic.

 

[navguy12]

That's hilarious because there's zero evidence to support that claim.

Glad I could make you laugh

 

[navguy12]

Tesla's supercharger network is farther along than the CCS network, but there are still big gaps in it. If someone has to take some 30-40 mile detour to make a tesla work, then there isn't enough station locations. EVs need to be more convenient, not less to outcompete gas.

Agreed. If you are the "someone" that has to take some 30-40 mile detour, then there is a need for more Superchargers in that scenario.

As a percentage of the driving public however, how many people travel more than 200 miles every single day?

https://www.creditdonkey.com/commute-statistics.html#measure

 

[navguy12]

Maybe, but I can't afford a 38-42k car.

Fair enough. Demand is still outstripping supply.

However, there are always folks that seem to want to trade every three years, and the TM3 was finally shipping in large numbers in Q3 of 2018...so 12 months from now there will be a very different used TM3 market.

 

[MassDeduction]

This has been an interesting thread. Some thoughts:

- One person suggested that EVs make a great second car, especially in a warm climate. I'd argue they make a great second car, especially in a cold climate. The range hit to driving in the cold is less of a problem than the increased battery degradation of being in a hot climate. Mild climate is the best of both worlds. In cold and mild climates, even inexpensive air-cooled e-cars like the Nissan Leaf can have long battery service lives.

- No way will ICE be dead in 2 years. I wish it would be, but it won't be. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

- It'll take more than a $25K Tesla to kill ICE off. This may surprise Tesla fans, but many people are turned off by various things about Tesla, Elon's twitter feed included. Even many e-car owners are turned off by various things about Tesla. When I bought my e-car, Tesla wasn't even a consideration for me, and a $25K USD Tesla would not have changed that, especially if it was yet another sedan. I'm proud of Tesla for pushing EVs forward, but none of the four models they have are anything close to the kind of e-car I wanted to purchase, nor does Musk's personality rub me the right way. Tesla is years ahead in tech, and years behind in build quality (as confirmed by Sandy Munro on both counts), and that trade-off isn't right for everyone.

- Now that there are battery chemistries and thermal management systems that stand up better to hot climates, the ace in the hole of EVs is that they will probably have longer service lives than ICE vehicles. Going forward, most e-car with 150,000 KM or more of mileage on them will probably have lots of life left, whereas many ICE cars with that kind of mileage on them will be nearly clapped-out. Those ICE cars would still be serviceable, but would reach a point where it simply wouldn't pay to keep repairing them. So it's not just about what's selling, it's what's out there being regularly used in the market.

- A problem is that most EVs are either sedans, compact hatchbacks, or compact crossovers. We need electric pick-up trucks, electric vans, electric station wagons (yes, these still sell reasonably well in Europe), true electric off-road SUVs, electric Jeeps, and so much more. ICE cannot die until there are compelling options in EVERY category that ICE is selling in. And not just a single model, many models from many companies (as not everyone is a fan of every brand).

- 2025 will be an interesting year, as many companies have targeted that year as when they plan to have a lot of electric models on the market. Mostly e-cars, but a few e-trucks and SUVs too. Jeep plans to have an electrified version of every single model, some hybrid, some PHEV, and some BEV from what I understand, and that's the kind of thing we need.

- To really kill ICE, you'll need to convert the delivery network away from it. And I'm talking less about the Tesla Semi here, I'm talking more the medium and small sized delivery trucks that are wizzing around every city every day in the millions. The electric Sprinter is heading in the right direction there, but is years away from volume production.

- Batteries aren't a zero-sum game, it's possible for companies to invest in increased battery capacity. That's only a limiting factor to the degree the companies choose not to invest in it. Obviously there are cost considerations.

- I don't actually think Tesla will realize a 50+% reduction in battery cost in the short term, and even if they do it won't significantly affect the cost of EVs as Tesla intends to use most future cost savings to become more profitable rather than to offer better retail prices.

- I think it's inappropriate to call traditional automakers "legacy automakers", as it presumes they aren't transitioning to electric. That's true of a few, but absolutely not true of others. Hyundai, Kia, and VW are serious about electrification, whereas the Japanese companies (all of them) have their heads stuck in the sand. Traditional automakers is an appropriate catch-all, though, whatever their approach.

 

[101101]

Let me reiterate

No one will be buying new ICE vehicles from econo boxes to semis in 2023. People will just hold off sales if they can't find what they want immediately in a BEV. In 2024 all ICE vehicles makers (legacy makers) will be bankrupt. Not including Chinese makes which are actually transitioning but many will probably end up as part of NIO. Hydrogen will fail- it has already failed and is never coming back (includes trash like Plug Power.)

Nothing seen from GM or VW is remotely sufficient or timely enough to stop them from going under. GM's super truck is more of their compliance placation gig with some Nikola style photo shopping. Granted their super truck concept is not utter rubish like the Badger (Badger was total rubbish even in concept,) but it is something for a Alfred Sloan day dream...how will GM end?
Behold after decades of decline and a bankruptcy and a government bailout GM will be run by a woman who will continue outsourcing everything until all that is left is marketing and various vaporous brands (Maven-Cruz-Nikola) and dead ends and finally the promise of the 'Super Truck' its name is a parody of a real product the "Cybertruck"- GM fails to transition in time back to electric which replaces ICE and the public loses interest in its brand and products in 2023 and it can't meet its variable costs in that year and it has too much debt and never paid off its prior government loan and it also doesn't have assets worth acquiring- it doesn't even have intellectual property worth acquiring.
Its share holders some stupid enough to be zeroed out a 2nd go after its executives.
VW will be a similar story of way too little way to late but its government after savaging it much harder than it did with diesel gate and kicking out its ruling family will save it as a pure BEV firm (again hydrogen is dead already) and it will have BMW (BMW family will be pushed out too) and Daimler rolled into it. Truely EV friendly execs will remain the rest will be deservedly fired in infamy.

Again none of this is investment advice but its a foregone conclusion at this point.

 

[MassDeduction]

Let me reiterate
[...]

And you did just that. Which unfortunately means that you didn't give us any additional reasoning to consider, nor have you refuted any of the reasons people have suggested you might be incorrect. You could have just linked to your earlier posts, rather than just re-iterating everything you'd previously said (and forcing everyone to re-read it, just in case there was something new in there).

Well, I'm more than happy to come back to this in a few years (if you're still on this forum). You may be right that some of them will go bankrupt, but I doubt they all will. In particular I doubt that Hyundai/Kia group will go bankrupt, since they're electrifying their offerings far faster than most traditional automakers, and have less debt than most traditional automakers. They're absolutely in the best overall shape of the traditional automakers, IMO.

I do wonder why you call the Cybertruck a real product, when they haven't even finished building the factory it will be made it. That seems more fanboyish than it does an accurate description of where the Cybertruck is currently at. Heck, they've even changed the dimensions of the darn thing since its reveal. It's on its way to being a real product, but it isn't there yet. Tesla actually delivered the Model Y early, and full marks to them for that. In most other regards, they deliver late (Model S, Model Y, Full Self Driving, etc.).

 

[DON KLASSEN]

A lot of hype around EV, the power grid is going to have to have a major upgrade. The current blackouts make one wonder why the optimism is so nearsighted.

 

[briloop]

Tony Seba says 2025 is the global end of ICE cars. I think that's 2 years too conservative.

As much as I would like to see this happen, it most likely won't.

One possibility is if there is some kind of a giant wake-up call (i.e. a big climate disaster) that would motivate governments around the world to make drastic changes that would force auto manufacturers to abandon the production of ICE vehicles.

I've got my calendar marked on January 1, 2024 to come back to this post and see if anything you wrote here turned out to be accurate.

 

[SouthernDude]

As much as I would like to see this happen, it most likely won't.

One possibility is if there is some kind of a giant wake-up call (i.e. a big climate disaster) that would motivate governments around the world to make drastic changes that would force auto manufacturers to abandon the production of ICE vehicles.

I've got my calendar marked on January 1, 2024 to come back to this post and see if anything you wrote here turned out to be accurate.

It's not going to happen because it's a ridiculous assertion. The EV manufacturing capacity by then will not be sufficient to meet the entirety of new cars demanded by 2023. It just won't happen. Not even some magical "climate disaster" will change that either. Why artificially force the market to do something? Let EVs improve without government interference. It doesn't make sense to force the market to put out EVs when all the kinks haven't been worked out yet.

 

[MassDeduction]

A lot of hype around EV, the power grid is going to have to have a major upgrade. The current blackouts make one wonder why the optimism is so nearsighted.

There's an awful lot of electricity used in oil and gas exploration, extraction, and refining. I think some estimates have gas cars using more electricity per kilometre travelled than electric cars, when looked at holistically.

There's been no explosion in EV use, but there is steady growth. The kind of growth that can be planned for by the grid, the same as they plan for other usage trends

 

[navguy12]

There's an awful lot of electricity used in oil and gas exploration, extraction, and refining. I think some estimates have gas cars using more electricity per kilometre travelled than electric cars, when looked at holistically.

There's been no explosion in EV use, but there is steady growth. The kind of growth that can be planned for by the grid, the same as they plan for other usage trends

This little four minute YouTube video illustrates just how much electricity is involved with refining oil:

And this energy flow chart shows just how inefficient the current liquid fuel based transportation system actually is:

 

[navguy12]

Why artificially force the market to do something?

I agree that the original posters timelines are, at best, aspirational.

Global markets recognize things like:

• morbidity costs of local air pollution,
• the risk of the stability of the global insurance industry, and
  
• the irrationality of siphoning off wealth from a local economy just to power the local economic activity.

Local (to NA) markets recognize that, as most EV owners will attest, driving an EV is simply better.

It's like the difference between original broadcast television and HDTV.

If you grew up watching 480 lines of resolution, you couldn't care less what someone describing HDTV would say...but see it with your own eyes and sooner or later, you will want the better product.

To repeat my chuckle inducing comment earlier in the thread:

There will still be plenty of factory fresh, brand new ICE vehicles for sale in October 2023...but if you insist on buying one, you will NOT get "zero percent financing" or any other financing deal.

No lending institution will risk being upside-down in an ICE vehicle three years after that (Oct 2026)...because that ICE vehicle will be worthless...

 

[101101]

Lets use that TV analogy. At the beginning of 2023 you're in the market for a new 4K or 8K screen at 80 or 100 inches. While at the store you see one that is a bit thicker (no frunk) and you notice its got some very pungent plasticky off gassing that doesn't seem like it would ever go away (tail pipe.) You also notice a humming or buzzing. And you notice it costs a bit more. So you ask the sales woman about the buzzing and the cost difference. She tells you its not a solid state set and that it actually has about 3000 always moving parts. Also that it won't last that long and will require regular expensive maintenace. Also that you can't plug it in at home but will have to come back to the store on a weekly basis to buy batteries to power it and the batteries are about 7x the cost of plugging it in at home.
You ask her why such a design came to market. She says the manufacturer which is the biggest in the world bet its future that people had nostalgia for 25 inch fat CRT tube sets. She say's she wouldn't buy one.

That is where ICE will be in 2023. The public will hold off untill they can buy a Tesla or maybe a Nio. If they have to they will buy a used ICE to hold off to buy a Tesla. What they won't do in any kind of meaningful or sustainable volume is buy a new ICE or a EV of any kind from a legacy maker ( its clear none of legacy makes will have anything but compliance crap by then and none due strickly to their own intrangsigence would even be able to stay afloat selling them.)

Do we think even Toyota with 50 billion cash on the books (not sure it has that- it won't by 2023) could make it through 2023 with a mere 25% of its normal sales? No it wouldn't make it through a quarter. It wouldn't be able to meet its variable costs. It would borrow, but by the end of the year it still wouldn't be able to meet its variable costs and its credit would be tapped out and it would have zero cash and massive debt and no prospects for recovery- it would be bankrupt.

This will happen. This is happening right now. I belive there is evidence BMW has been actually bankrupt for 5 years and all it took was tiny Tesla and the shock waves from diesel gate. They try to hide it but they did recently can a CEO for the worst financial results in memory and it came out they had been lying and saying they sold more cars than they did evey year for the last 5 years. When they have to start lying about their ultimate result in market share and market standing and really revenue it means all their numbers are garbage and they are financial garbage- bankruptcy is financial garbage. Sony did something similar for a time. That's not unique, Forbes noted GM and Ford and Chrysler have been "structurally bankrupt forever" its been part and parcel of the corporate welfare fossil fuel ponzi. But this time Ford and GM are going under in a way that doesn't just zero out their share holders and creditors. They are going away and they won't even get absorbed. And the market won't miss them. And even in the cases where the token name sakes carry on like VW, Toyota and Hyundai they will not be able to hide that they went through the worst and most catastrophic kind of bankruptycy and restructuring- it will be scorched earth burn to the ground in intensity.

In the case of Ford and GM, lets say you tried to revive these two perinneal laggard arrogant corporate geriatric welfare cases. Lets say you fixed their balance sheets. Trying to bring them back in 2024 would still be like teleporting the Ford of 1970 into 2020 and asking it to compete in 2020 with its leaded gas vehicles and know how and same staff and plant property. Worse maybe. They don't have any of the resources they need to do it, not the people, not the culture, not the education, not the drive, not the mission, not the factories, not the IP, not the good will, not the business model. GM and Ford against Tesla is like Sears and Kmart against Amazon. Not going to happen.

Sorry, I have fond memories of Sears and Kmart but times have changed. This is Seba's buggie makers against Ford. But I'd argue Ford was never really that good. It was never a Tesla it was more a British East India company. All its resources including good will are tapped out.

 

[bwilson4web]

There is a limit in battery manufacturing that “catalog engineering” does not understand. In contrast, Tesla is reaching toward the mines and everything between to guarantee their critical resource ... batteries.

Bob Wilson

 

[Bruce M.]

Watch out for people who say "there is evidence" but don't provide any. My $1,000 bet is still on the table.

 

[101101]

No, there all the evidence in the world, people choosing not to see it are in denial or stupid or both or are shills. Tesla with a valuation greater than VW, Toyota and GM put together is a strong clue. All 3 are going under only 2 are coming back up but as a shadow of their former selves.

 

[SouthernDude]

No, there all the evidence in the world, people choosing not to see it are in denial or stupid or both or are shills. Tesla with a valuation greater than VW, Toyota and GM put together is a strong clue. All 3 are going under only 2 are coming back up but as a shadow of their former selves.

You’re full of it. I don’t care about Tesla’s valuation on the market. Tesla won’t have the manufacturing capacity to meet half the annual US new car demand by 2023. Deal with it. And no people who disagree with you aren’t shills nor are they stupid. You just buy into the hype without any critical thinking. Just pure wishful thinking.