ICE car sales likely to be over in 2023

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Tony Seba says all new cars/vehicles will be electric by 2025. He's been saying it for a while and he has been spot on for more than a decade with all his predictions.

I am saying just by the very public high visibility product release map of Tesla that the public simply won't buy new ICE after 2023 as the value proposition will simply be too bad. True some will be in line for a Tesla produced in 2023 but Tesla doesn't have to fill the loss of demand for new ICE vehicles in 2023, the ICE repair and used vehicle markets will help people hold off until they can get a Tesla or some lesser make (no automaker in history has ever been as far ahead as Tesla now.) In some rare cases people will be forced to buy a damn obsolete new piece of ICE junk but that won't be enough to keep the ICE makers alive until 2024. They are going under as in out of business forever and not coming up except in the cases where the wrong kind of state socialism or national security concerns cause a state to keep a brand's name in circulation but they will be defacto nationalized and the dumb criminals who used to run them defamed and ousted. Look what happened with Ghosen already- didn't help he had Marie Antoinette parties. And dumb criminal hydrogen isn't happening either. This implosive vacuum will happen in trucking too in the same time frame same result.
Right now German VDA ia trying to force the crime of hydrogen on people- what utter BS, these suppliers are going to learn in very short oder that society doesn't give a damn about what they want, for them its a terminal revolt, they've become disposible and replaceable with a demand for their actual replacement so their is no supply aide arguement and they don't have any supply to withold ans their political capital (such a stupid term- is all: you're money is no goos here.) Same period fossil fuel companies will be going under and the public won't bail them out. French government just cancelled US LNG contracts in France no morw US NG in France! What were they thinking that they could foiste or force these unnecessary uncompetitive toxic products and their rent seeking commitments on people? This is justice long delayed (and with interest to come) for Enron, 911, Iraq(s), Libya, Afganistan, and the damage to pensions and the public sector and for destroying global health. Its very simple, the bill is due and for once it will be paid. Look how deperate it is- Toyota giving a stupid hydrogen vehicle to the Pope- must lost their minds.

When people don't have to buy Blackberries they don't. These were miserly rent seeking toll booth holders for a bridge that condemned at the point where a toll free public bridge 1000 lanes wided opened up right next to it. The toll booth owners want to whine but they've been paid off millions of times over, so thet need to slink off before they're hauled in for gouging.
 
101101 said:
Tony Seba says all new cars/vehicles will be electric by 2025. He's been saying it for a while and he has been spot on for more than a decade with all his predictions.

I am saying just by the very public high visibility product release map of Tesla that the public simply won't buy new ICE after 2023 as the value proposition will simply be too bad. True some will be in line for a Tesla produced in 2023 but Tesla doesn't have to fill the loss of demand for new ICE vehicles in 2023, the ICE repair and used vehicle markets will help people hold off until they can get a Tesla or some lesser make (no automaker in history has ever been as far ahead as Tesla now.) In some rare cases people will be forced to buy a damn obsolete new piece of ICE junk but that won't be enough to keep the ICE makers alive until 2024. They are going under as in out of business forever and not coming up except in the cases where the wrong kind of state socialism or national security concerns cause a state to keep a brand's name in circulation but they will be defacto nationalized and the dumb criminals who used to run them defamed and ousted. Look what happened with Ghosen already- didn't help he had Marie Antoinette parties. And dumb criminal hydrogen isn't happening either. This implosive vacuum will happen in trucking too in the same time frame same result.
Right now German VDA ia trying to force the crime of hydrogen on people- what utter BS, these suppliers are going to learn in very short oder that society doesn't give a damn about what they want, for them its a terminal revolt, they've become disposible and replaceable with a demand for their actual replacement so their is no supply aide arguement and they don't have any supply to withold ans their political capital (such a stupid term- is all: you're money is no goos here.) Same period fossil fuel companies will be going under and the public won't bail them out. French government just cancelled US LNG contracts in France no morw US NG in France! What were they thinking that they could foiste or force these unnecessary uncompetitive toxic products and their rent seeking commitments on people? This is justice long delayed (and with interest to come) for Enron, 911, Iraq(s), Libya, Afganistan, and the damage to pensions and the public sector and for destroying global health. Its very simple, the bill is due and for once it will be paid. Look how deperate it is- Toyota giving a stupid hydrogen vehicle to the Pope- must lost their minds.

When people don't have to buy Blackberries they don't. These were miserly rent seeking toll booth holders for a bridge that condemned at the point where a toll free public bridge 1000 lanes wided opened up right next to it. The toll booth owners want to whine but they've been paid off millions of times over, so thet need to slink off before they're hauled in for gouging.
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This simply isn’t proper thinking. Only a moderate percentage of people buy vehicles because they make sense.

People buy Jeeps for 50k+, add another 10k in mods and drive around getting 12mpg. The vast majority of them use them only as daily drivers and hardly ever off road. They are also extremely brand loyal.

You can repeat the above concept for pickup trucks. Even take it one step further for diesel pickups who’s owners buy them because they like the clatter of Diesel engines and drool over turbo spoiling noises.

You think vastly different from many car buyers.


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101101 said:
Tony Seba says all new cars/vehicles will be electric by 2025. He's been saying it for a while and he has been spot on for more than a decade with all his predictions.

I am saying just by the very public high visibility product release map of Tesla that the public simply won't buy new ICE after 2023 as the value proposition will simply be too bad. True some will be in line for a Tesla produced in 2023 but Tesla doesn't have to fill the loss of demand for new ICE vehicles in 2023, the ICE repair and used vehicle markets will help people hold off until they can get a Tesla or some lesser make (no automaker in history has ever been as far ahead as Tesla now.) In some rare cases people will be forced to buy a damn obsolete new piece of ICE junk but that won't be enough to keep the ICE makers alive until 2024. They are going under as in out of business forever and not coming up except in the cases where the wrong kind of state socialism or national security concerns cause a state to keep a brand's name in circulation but they will be defacto nationalized and the dumb criminals who used to run them defamed and ousted. Look what happened with Ghosen already- didn't help he had Marie Antoinette parties. And dumb criminal hydrogen isn't happening either. This implosive vacuum will happen in trucking too in the same time frame same result.
Right now German VDA ia trying to force the crime of hydrogen on people- what utter BS, these suppliers are going to learn in very short oder that society doesn't give a damn about what they want, for them its a terminal revolt, they've become disposible and replaceable with a demand for their actual replacement so their is no supply aide arguement and they don't have any supply to withold ans their political capital (such a stupid term- is all: you're money is no goos here.) Same period fossil fuel companies will be going under and the public won't bail them out. French government just cancelled US LNG contracts in France no morw US NG in France! What were they thinking that they could foiste or force these unnecessary uncompetitive toxic products and their rent seeking commitments on people? This is justice long delayed (and with interest to come) for Enron, 911, Iraq(s), Libya, Afganistan, and the damage to pensions and the public sector and for destroying global health. Its very simple, the bill is due and for once it will be paid. Look how deperate it is- Toyota giving a stupid hydrogen vehicle to the Pope- must lost their minds.

When people don't have to buy Blackberries they don't. These were miserly rent seeking toll booth holders for a bridge that condemned at the point where a toll free public bridge 1000 lanes wided opened up right next to it. The toll booth owners want to whine but they've been paid off millions of times over, so thet need to slink off before they're hauled in for gouging.
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I don't care what Tony Seba said - if that's what he actually said. It's a dumb assertion that has zero basis in reality. It is just wishful thinking. You keep citing these random people and I highly suspect that you are probably just taking whatever they are saying out of context.

Secondly, I don't care how much you like Tesla, but Tesla isn't going to take more than half the US car market in 2023 (or ever because no car manufacturer has done that in modern times). They wont even have the manufacturing capacity to build more than 5 million cars a year by 2025.

These last paragraphs are just wild conjecture. Many crazy environmentalists claim that all the wars in the Middle East occurred because of oil because they want to count all the money spent on the wars as a subsidy for oil (even though the claim is utterly ridiculous). Seems like you are one of them. Also, you keep using rent-seeking inappropriately.
 
DON KLASSEN said:
A lot of hype around EV, the power grid is going to have to have a major upgrade. The current blackouts make one wonder why the optimism is so nearsighted.
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Right now there is an oversupply of electric generating capacity in the majority (maybe all, but not sure) US markets. We should be good on generation. You are correct that there will need to be upgrades - mostly at the substation to distribution level - in many parts of the country. Having an electric car is like buying one or two new driers that you run everyday for several hours at a house. For me it would probably increase my electricity consumption by 25%. This will have a noticeable impact on the distribution grid. Most utilities will be able to predict and do the necessary upgrades in time.

Also, the majority of blackouts happen because something is knocking down power lines. The only real thing that would help reduce blackouts would be to bury power lines.
 
The above is not accurate IMO. Sure there is an average of spare capacity throughout the year, but we certainly lack capacity at certain times, even when nothing is “down”.

California ran out of power during the hottest weeks of this summer. Not only was the state asking residents to cut back during peek usage but Tesla was asking owners to only charge during peek if they absolutely had to. This actually happened in the greenest state of the country. I have also lived in NY and Texas and have had both states ask me to limit power usage during the hottest months.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-california-heat-wave-stress-on-grid/

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Recoil45 said:
The above is not accurate IMO. Sure there is an average of spare capacity throughout the year, but we certainly lack capacity at certain times, even when nothing is “down”.

California ran out of power during the hottest weeks of this summer. Not only was the state asking residents to cut back during peek usage but Tesla was asking owners to only charge during peek if they absolutely had to. This actually happened in the greenest state of the country. I have also lived in NY and Texas and have had both states ask me to limit power usage during the hottest months.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-california-heat-wave-stress-on-grid/

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Well, in California, a good portion of these incidents were caused by the utility company being forced to throttle electricity moving through the power lines to prevent fires from occurring. I highly suspect that California also has some pretty restrictive laws on rigth-of-way vegetation management, which is really what the problem is. Several utilities will request customers to use power on off-peak times through demand response programs. This isn't really an indication of a lack of generating capacity, but more about particular goals that the state governments are trying to achieve. Not saying that the goals are necessarily good goals; I'm just explaining that the goals are there.

As a whole, the US grid has added far more capacity than has shut down. This isn't just wind and solar capacity, which isn't dispatchable; it's also natural gas capacity, which is dispatchable.
 
SouthernDude said:
Well, in California, a good portion of these incidents were caused by the utility company being forced to throttle electricity moving through the power lines to prevent fires from occurring. I highly suspect that California also has some pretty restrictive laws on rigth-of-way vegetation management, which is really what the problem is. Several utilities will request customers to use power on off-peak times through demand response programs. This isn't really an indication of a lack of generating capacity, but more about particular goals that the state governments are trying to achieve. Not saying that the goals are necessarily good goals; I'm just explaining that the goals are there.

As a whole, the US grid has added far more capacity than has shut down. This isn't just wind and solar capacity, which isn't dispatchable; it's also natural gas capacity, which is dispatchable.
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You're confusing two separate situations. Yes, Pacific Gas and Electric shut off power to certain areas with high fire danger when there was a risk their lines could spark a fire. That's entirely separate from a brutal heat wave several weeks ago which did in fact cause the folks running the electric grid to declare what they call a FlexAlert, meaning don't use any more power than you absolutely have to. California generally has plenty of generating capacity, but extreme circumstances can stress the system.
 
Same nonsense replies from the same shills and trolls. Once again people do look at value, performance and status. People will in general by 2023 not choose an ICE over a EV and that means every legacy maker is going bankrupt in that year. They also will not choose EVs from legacy makers, but even if they did that would still bankrupt those companies. There will be efforts to try to hide that bankruptcy is what is happening but it won't work. Only these brands: Toyota, VW, Hyundai are going to be resurected in radically restructured form. The other brands aren't coming back. They will join Tesla, Apple and Nio and also Magna as a surviving supplier- Bosch isn't going to survive its management is obviously too dumb given its hydrogen involvement. I don't think BYD survives as an auto maker because it has a criminal moron hydrogen program and Buffet involvement. Stellantis willingness to buy credits from Tesla is encouraging as is its willingness to try to license Tesla platforms as stated by the FCA head but I don't think Stellantis can weather the storm financially or technically. Not sure even France and Italy will want to save it. Regardless, the world is getting over the pollute for profit ill gotten gain, rent seeking oligarchs. All their useless 'profits' came from polluting. Their time is ending. It will be evident in the rapid implosion of the fossil fuel energy and legacy auto and it will hit the chemical industry too.
 
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Bruce M. said:
You're confusing two separate situations. Yes, Pacific Gas and Electric shut off power to certain areas with high fire danger when there was a risk their lines could spark a fire. That's entirely separate from a brutal heat wave several weeks ago which did in fact cause the folks running the electric grid to declare what they call a FlexAlert, meaning don't use any more power than you absolutely have to. California generally has plenty of generating capacity, but extreme circumstances can stress the system.
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Huh. Maybe I did get mixed up on those events. I was thinking that there was enough grid capacity but some rule didn't allow for all the generating capacity to operate. I'll have to go look into that. Maybe it's just the eastern interconnection that has an oversupply of capacity and I mixed it up with all the interconnections.
 
Over supply is BS- there is absolutely no over supply if any fossil fuel is still being used in power plants. A watt of green needs to shut a watt of fossil fuel no wiggling bs. Oh we have a tiny penetration of green energy but we have surplus green energy- only morons would believe that. You have surplus fossil fuel!
And look at the stupidity that comes from it like using that non surplus to claim to justift making ridiculous 'green' hydrogen- 1000x better to put it in batteries or just use it because its primary and the fossil fuel bs is secondary or can and should be done away with as that's the point. Another stupid notion is that we will need more energy- not until long after fossil fuela are gone. The poison for profit crowd cannot exist without lying and criminality, its what they mean when the talk about moronic long defunct 'capitalism,' they are talking about prioritizing and tollerating crime and criminality and increasing it- the call it 'business.' On their way out they need to be run at cost with price caps as they should have been all along. Always obviously unsustainable pollution is not profit justifying value added.

Now back to the thread and BMW as a canary in the mine. I've said that I think BMW is already worse off than the industry standard of structural bankruptcy- coined by Forbes. It got caught lying about its sales in the US for the last 5 years-as bad as lying about its global revenue meaning all its financial data is junk and its only hanging by the thread of the bad kind of socialism. But we see it doubling down with more compliance blather with its next BEV SUV for release in late 2021. Yet even against its quite apparently hugely inflated US numbers Model Y is outselling its SUV already by 2x to 1- but I think its a lot more than that because I don't see new BMWs in former BMW land SoCal.

The new BMW SUV BEV is slow. Its will have just the perfunctory range stated by Musk- if that. It is set for compliance numbers through 2023. And it has stupid virtue signaling blue exterior leds all around which will turn off its buyers but it still stupidly has huge kidey air intake grills as if BEV buyers confusedly want to signal they are buying a hybrid or ICE. Get rid of the air intakes and all that chintzy plastic cladding on the corners. Its got cheap looking fake wood on the center consol and a switch laden interior that isn't even up to BMWs outdated standards. This is like what Honda did to make the Clarity fail by screwing up its rear stylying with weird anachronistic square wheel wells- also in the case of Honda offering a dumb hydrogen model. Bowel Movement Works- BMW
 
BMW builds great cars and will be around long after you are gone.

They along with Porsche will hang on to ICE for quite some time.


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@recoil, ah no BMW doesn't build good cars, the quality is long gone. And this was shown even a few years ago by them announcing their worst financial results possibly ever, firing their CEO Kruger in response then then getting caught lying about their sales overstating sale (surely by a huge margin in the US) for the last 5 years- which implies their financial data has been garbage- their just like Deutsch Bank and for similar reasons. They are getting utterly destroyed by Tesla which I'd call justice and they seem to be run by fools their last good person in a lead role was Diess and he left them to run VW.

Even shill rag Car and Driver (utter sponsored lie based garbage) is saying ICE makers face a money pit trying to transition to EVs or chase Tesla. But the thing is, even in strong state they couldn't do it and they are weaked and hollowed out and not just by the ups and downs of the business cycle like the Bush induced 07 crash and Corona but by their constant money grubbing cheapening of the machine that builds the machine. They literally have no competence anymore, thet don't know what they are doing they are just supply chain managers. They don't have any clarity or real mission beyond the retarded stealing of more money for rent seeking parasites. What is a BMW? A vehicle for poseurs (a permanent #2) that exists to barrel scrape more money for rent seeking parasites. Its the ultimate pos.

So no, Toyota, VW, and Hunydai will survive in name only out of national pride and security concerns and the bad kind of socialism but the rest of the ICE garbage is RIP. Sorry, designed by the stupid for the stupid is not a survival case.
Its time for corporate parasites to continually justify their charter- if they aren't social benefit first they have no right to continue to exist and continued profit for rent seeking parasites is not benefit or contribution its cancer- their own cancer firsr. Pick you end point for them, economic, social political- its over.
 
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Lets state it more suscinctly. I think BMW is defined by its dumbness. Its a dumb company with dumb products and dumb goals and objectives with dumb leaders and a dumb very short future where it falls off a cliff- with a dumb reason for being. And this is inspite of BMW for years now trying to react to Tesla. Christian Konessegg said don't try to compete with Tesla go where Tesla isn't. That is good advice but does BMW have the people to do that or based on its history of being defined by dumbness does can it attract them? Does it have the time? To do that its not about building a van its about building a universal robot- that is trying to compete with Tesla where they aren't yet but will be soon. But what was BMW ever good at in the last 50 years? Tuning paint, steering, braking and transmissions? Over charging for stuff? Selling buzzy pollution machines that lasted longer than expected? Helping puff the image of yuppies? Way out of their depth. They are like willful buggie makers but they will be going quietly into the night.



Despite their situation they still have dumb contempt for their customers- want to use those xenon headlights or rear seat heating system you already paid them for and actually own... you need to pay BMW a subscription for that gratuitous crippleware... want to change your oil (?)... that will be $500 and if you do it your self your warranty is void. And they assume they can still trick these same people into buying cars that relative to Tesla aren't don't perform as well, aren't remotely as reliable, won't last as long, aren't remotely as safe, and will cost a lot more over their life, and require lots of wasted time on maintenance, and are more expensive to insure, more expensive to fuel and are dirty and make their owners look stupid. Also have increasingly cheap interior material and chintzy plasticky Mirai like styling.



Oh I thought of one redeeming quality. They were reasonably good to their employees. That's something and that's not dumb but its all they have left.
 
We currently own two BMWs. Awesome cars, great price point, top of the line service. My assumption is you don’t or never have owned one.

All your claims are false. No issues with headlights or changing your oil. No subscriptions...

They also don’t overcharge. It’s a budget brand compare it Audi and MB.

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Ah no.... one friend said she would never buy a BMW again because the leather seats in her top end 3 series riped and the brakes kept screwing up warping the rotors again- never gets fixed at the dealer. Another friend a BMW fanatic admitted he was disappointed in his new top end BMW 7 series because the seats weren't as good as the 750 he replaced and annoying little things like a push button start made of cheap plastic where the labling wore off months into having his car. He tried to show me how fast it was but yawn. Know someone else that replaced their X5 with a Nissan. BMW was facing injunctions world wide for vehicles
that spontaneously combusted while off and parked and it was surely BMW that was trying to pin it and Ford's combustion problem on Tesla in the media- nope as Nasim Taleb pointed out it was BS.
Read over and over again on forums former BMW enthusiasts lost interest often after experiencing Tesla. BMW caught lying on sales numbers in US for last 5 years. BMW recently had worst financial results ever fired CEO- replaced with a clone doubling down on same losing fossil fuel first strategy- saying ICE would still be majority in 2040 and always be around but right after EU announced 2030s ICE ban Noticed every Bolt is being recalled for fires. GM do that to itself on purpose? Saw a study that tried to say BMW was the 4th most sought after employer globally- but it has GM as 12th- must have been down by GM shill Navigant.

Now if you have 2 BMWs and you're on here advocating for them it implies you have bad judgement, are dishonest and are also quite possibly a shill. Musk liked an old BMW and Munro liked the tear down on a BMW ekectric from 6 years ago. I liked BMWs from before the mid 90s. But BMW is terminally ill from self inflicted wounds. Its dumb, that's its defining feature, its even more dumb than Lucid- as dumb as Nikola.
 
Oh look EU has new bill going up for vote to ban new ICE vehicles in Europe by 2025. See, getting there already. They need to ban natural gas and moronic hydrogen because its as dumb and fraudulent as clean coal or clean diesel.

Hydrogen in the fire of nuclear fusion of star cores is the accepted source of elemental genesis and so was a step along the way from the singularity in imparting the energy to elements like thorium for radio decay driven vulcanism and imparting energy for abiogenic petrolium genesis. And hydrogen fusion drives the sun's photon emission which imparted the fraction of any fossil matter and fungus driven creation of petrolium.
So energy for us has generally started with hydrogen. But even if we had working hot fusion here on Earth it would be inferior on cost and inferior on additive heat pollution to current start (sun) driven battery backed solar. As Musk said to paraphrase without the sun's power the Earth would be far far below zero a frozen barron nothingness.
A microsopic fraction of the Sun's input to the Earth covers all out energy needs countless times over. If not that then lets have vacuum energy or zero point which Tesla himself told us was there for the taking.

But we hear: hydrogen in chemical (non nuclear) terms is a storage source not a power source. But we couldn't pick a worse source. What you put in a tank will be gone due to self discharge leaks in 4 years or so (batteries by comparison are u to 100 years now on self discharge.) For mass storage it has to be liquified (expensive) but those tanks take up 2x the volume of gasoline (2x the trucks etc.) To liquify it, it also has to be kept cryogenically refridgerated (expensive) and even as an incompresible liquid it has to be kept under pressure! And its basically a explosive bmb that sweats out of tanks, and is colorless, odorless, with an invisible flame. It would also require a new liquid transport infrastructure to replace the current petrolium infrastructure because the two are far from interchangeable. And its transporting heavy nuclei massively inefficient in comparison to long in place almost lossless or even better roof top.
And the source of this stuff would be natural gas despite the outright clean coal can kicking transparent ponzi lies to the contrary about it potentially being green.
And why would people go through the massive waste of wasting precious green energy on stupid leaky ultra expensive hydrogen- there is no surplus of green not even at the peak if the duck curve, there is just petrol that should have stayed in the ground. And it means way more than NG levels of potable water waste- already unsustainable. And it means not meeting the Paris Accord dead limits. And it means all the hostage taking idiocy of continuing to provide massive austerity inducing subsidies, of holding pensions hostage and holding finance hostage with incredibly dumb blind debt insurance on stranded fossil fuel assets (liabilities)- derivatives- named by Adam Smith.
- fossil fuel industry can't even self insure without going bankrupt as head of EUs largest insurer pointed out at Davos. And even with all this it goes into increasing debt on its damn transfer payment dividends. And it means every kind of insurance continuing to socialize endless fossil fuel losses- health-auto-life-property by raising costs and reducing payouts to cover constant regular criminal purchases of worthless fossil fuel stock to prop it- the capital will not rot these damn insurance companies should not be allowed to invest and pass on losses- these stupid companies like Liberty Mutual in CA buy the fissil fuel company stock the insure the same company than pass on the costs of accidents to home owners rate payers and they all collude to buy this crap- we don't have single payer but do have constant claims of bogus fed debt to mask this bs. It also means continuing to put up with oligarch captured media and political parties. And it means more unnecessary idiot wars as another layer of fossil fuel bailouts which will lead to nuclear war.
And all to protect the misguided investments of people who couldn't even be bothered to look where they were investing. These are Darwin award types- and fate is coming around on them. We're not talking pensioners either.
 
I left out that a lot of the defense haul is going for no reason to useless eater fossil fuel rent seekers. We aren't getting the security that is being paid for- no its going as tribute to non contributing or huge negative contributiom oligarchs as a kind of tribute.
 
101101 said:
I left out that a lot of the defense haul is going for no reason to useless eater fossil fuel rent seekers. We aren't getting the security that is being paid for- no its going as tribute to non contributing or huge negative contributiom oligarchs as a kind of tribute.
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101101,

Why do you think Tesla with such a simple powertrain is ranked so much lower than a dinosaur era ICE vehicle?

It’s a absolutely deplorable rating for Tesla. Even your most hated (BMW) blows them out of the water.


https://www.autoblog.com/2020/11/19/mazda-ranks-first-consumer-reports-reliability/


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