Honda EV committment/future?

[Landshark]

I do want to point out that, with PHEV, owners have double the maintenance costs down the road. Unless you unload before heavy costs sink in, you are looking at double the trouble having PHEV around.

Do we have any data to support this statement? Do we know what the long term maintenance and operating costs are for a BEV?

Let’s face it, the ICE components on a modern car are pretty bullet proof for 20+ years and 200-300K miles. Can we say the same for a BEV? What’s more likely to fail are the electronic nanny features, and other high tech gizmos that are now present on both ICE and BEV cars.

I’ve had a 1999 GMC truck since new. Other than fluids, filters, brakes, tires and a 12V battery, the only thing I’ve had to replace was a parking brake cable. How many Cybertrucks will be running around in 22 years still performing as they did when new?

We also have a number of owners who operate and charge the battery, exclusively on gas. In some cases the cost per mile using gas is half of what it would be on electricity. The difference could easily be $500-600/yr, depending on miles driven. That’s more than enough to offset a few oil changes. Who know where the price of either gas or electricity is headed? I don’t see electricity costs going down as demand increases and infrastructure is enhanced. I also don’t see “free” charging as a sustainable operation. Sure, some employers will offer it as a perk, but there is still a cost involved that has to be recovered one way or another.

There’s also the issue of a fuel tax equivalent for BEV’s that will eventually increase the operating cost. It may be all rainbows and unicorns now, but be prepared for changes.

 

[DucRider]

A 300 mile EV sounds good but what about the environmental impact of the big battery?

What about it?
>2 years for the typical driver to "break even" and almost all vehicles last much, much longer than that.

Many people formed their opinions based on a debunked study that was widely quoted and held many flaws - not least of which was looking at the "well to wheels" emissions of a full sized Model S vs only the tailpipe emissions of an A class (subcompact) diesel in the EU, while using very old (dirty) stats for electricity generation. Most readers looked at only the headlines or a paragraph or two and never looked at the assumptions or methodology in the study.

 

[leehinde]

... from a fly-in in Lock Haven, PA.

Sorry, off-topic, but since there are probably 12 people in Lock Haven (including a co-worker), I have to ask, was this little league related?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Sorry, off-topic, but since there are probably 12 people in Lock Haven (including a co-worker), I have to ask, was this little league related?

Nope. Every year there’s a fly-in called Sentimental Journey, where lots of Piper Cubs return to Lock Haven, PA, where they were built. Fun destination even if you’re not a Cub!

 

[Agzand]

What about it?
>2 years for the typical driver to "break even" and almost all vehicles last much, much longer than that.

Many people formed their opinions based on a debunked study that was widely quoted and held many flaws - not least of which was looking at the "well to wheels" emissions of a full sized Model S vs only the tailpipe emissions of an A class (subcompact) diesel in the EU, while using very old (dirty) stats for electricity generation. Most readers looked at only the headlines or a paragraph or two and never looked at the assumptions or methodology in the study.

Yes maybe 2 years if you charge with 100% clean electricity.

I am forming my opinion based on Polestar disclosure. A company that makes BEVs.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/analysis-polestar-lifts-lid-lifetime-ev-emissions

It is 50k miles if you charge from European grid typical mix, and 70k miles from Global grid mix, and Polestar 2 is not a 300 mile BEV.

Regardless the improvement is incremental, it is not the type of generational improvement that you expect from an entirely new generation of vehicles.

There is another study claiming EV drivers on average drive less than 6000 miles a year. If that is the case it is likely that those cars do worse than an ICE vehicle in terms of CO2 emissions. I am not sure how solid this study is, but something to consider.

 

[Phil_Meyers]

We drive almost 40k miles a year. Our Clarity is getting a big workout.

 

[DucRider]

Yes maybe 2 years if you charge with 100% clean electricity.

I am forming my opinion based on Polestar disclosure. A company that makes BEVs.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/analysis-polestar-lifts-lid-lifetime-ev-emissions

It is 50k miles if you charge from European grid typical mix, and 70k miles from Global grid mix, and Polestar 2 is not a 300 mile BEV.

Regardless the improvement is incremental, it is not the type of generational improvement that you expect from an entirely new generation of vehicles.

There is another study claiming EV drivers on average drive less than 6000 miles a year. If that is the case it is likely that those cars do worse than an ICE vehicle in terms of CO2 emissions. I am not sure how solid this study is, but something to consider.

Keep in mind the Polestar 2 is a low efficiency EV. The Model Y get 326 miles vs 233 for the Polestar with a pack of essentially the same size.
Just like the energy used to drive, the source of the energy used in production has a big impact. The Polestar uses CATL manufactured batteries. Batteries produced in the US generate far less GHG than those produced in Asia (on average):
https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV-life-cycle-GHG_ICCT-Briefing_09022018_vF.pdf
Producing the Model Y would have a much lower GHG impact than a Polestar 2, and then use energy much more efficiently over it's lifetime (and is a 300 mile BEV)

Many different papers on this subject, wth GHG gas estimates ranging from 30 to 494 kg CO2e/kWh
One way to compare different vehicles (and you can tweak many settings/assumptions):
https://www.carboncounter.com/#!/explore

 

[Landshark]

The Model Y get 326 miles vs 233 for the Polestar with a pack of essentially the same size.

Does it really get 326 miles? The Model 3 Long Range (323 mile claimed range) in a Car and Driver 2 year/24K mile review had an observed rang of 237 miles. The longest distance they’ve driven it on a full charge was 221 miles, on a trip from Michigan to Virginia. The battery has lost 7% of its capacity, or about 22 miles of range.

The actual range achieved from the Tesla represents approximately 70% of the claimed range. Conversely, the 233 mile Polestar achieved a range of 190 miles during the Car and Driver 75mph freeway test. That represents just over 80% of the claimed range.

Looking at some actual results, rather than inflated claims from a manufacturer, demonstrates that the Tesla may not be as efficient as we are led to believe. After all, a kWh is a kWh and electric motors with the same output will use the same amount of energy to do the same amount of work. Variables such as weight and aerodynamics will play a part in actual rage, as well as differences in BMS protocols that may allow one vehicle to access more of the batteries capacity than another.

One thing for sure is that 2 years to break even, isn’t an accurate answer. It is mileage dependent not time dependent. Hell, it may be more “eco-friendly” to buy a used ICE car rather that a new BEV. That would completely eliminate the entire carbon footprint of manufacturing a new vehicle.

 

[rodeknyt]

Looking at some actual results, rather than inflated claims from a manufacturer, demonstrates that the Tesla may not be as efficient as we are led to believe.

With ICE vehicles, you can generally use the EPA numbers as a gauge of how well one car does vs. another—i.e. the car with higher EPA numbers will get better mileage during equivalent driving circumstances (but never as high as the estimate). With EVs it looks like even the EPA estimates are not all that worthwhile to figure out which car will give your specific driving habits the best mileage.

 

[Jimmy Vo]

Does it really get 326 miles? The Model 3 Long Range (323 mile claimed range) in a Car and Driver 2 year/24K mile review had an observed rang of 237 miles. The longest distance they’ve driven it on a full charge was 221 miles, on a trip from Michigan to Virginia. The battery has lost 7% of its capacity, or about 22 miles of range.

it's true, in real-world driving you can never get 326 miles range. But remember, EPA test includes in-road stop-and-go and highway. From my experience with my Model Y, city roads and highways have huge range differences. If you hit the highway and drive over 70mph, I would not surprise with the range number of 221 miles from Michigan to Virginia on the highway. Highway and speed are the range killer. Speed makes a big difference, it's not just a small one. So it's hard to say the range, it depends on how you drive. I would say, the same car, 50 miles difference between who drives it. Taking an example from me and my wife. I floor the pedal every time I drive , my wife can have 50 miles more range than me

 

[Agzand]

Does it really get 326 miles? The Model 3 Long Range (323 mile claimed range) in a Car and Driver 2 year/24K mile review had an observed rang of 237 miles. The longest distance they’ve driven it on a full charge was 221 miles, on a trip from Michigan to Virginia. The battery has lost 7% of its capacity, or about 22 miles of range.

The actual range achieved from the Tesla represents approximately 70% of the claimed range. Conversely, the 233 mile Polestar achieved a range of 190 miles during the Car and Driver 75mph freeway test. That represents just over 80% of the claimed range.

Looking at some actual results, rather than inflated claims from a manufacturer, demonstrates that the Tesla may not be as efficient as we are led to believe. After all, a kWh is a kWh and electric motors with the same output will use the same amount of energy to do the same amount of work. Variables such as weight and aerodynamics will play a part in actual rage, as well as differences in BMS protocols that may allow one vehicle to access more of the batteries capacity than another.

One thing for sure is that 2 years to break even, isn’t an accurate answer. It is mileage dependent not time dependent. Hell, it may be more “eco-friendly” to buy a used ICE car rather that a new BEV. That would completely eliminate the entire carbon footprint of manufacturing a new vehicle.

Tesla uses a more detailed test (5 cycle) to get their EPA certification. Other manufacturers use the simple (2 cycle) test. This is one of the reasons Teslas have such a good EPA numbers. Their cars are also more aerodynamic and have higher recommended tire pressures. All these factors contribute to better range. However to get a better idea on actual range vs. other models you should look at WLTP numbers, which although inflated, provide better comparison between different brands.

BMW and Kia get good range from their EVs, very competitive with Tesla in that regard.

 

[Landshark]

Tesla uses a more detailed test (5 cycle) to get their EPA certification. Other manufacturers use the simple (2 cycle) test. This is one of the reasons Teslas have such a good EPA numbers.

What I was attempting to get across, is that comparing a car that is perceived as being a high efficiency EV, simply because the manufacturer has managed to slap on a 320 mile range rating, to a vehicle with a similar vehicle that has almost the same capacity battery and a 233 mile range, is a questionable comparison when the 320 mile car can only manage to travel 230 miles, while the 233 mile car travels 190 miles on the same test run.

That may be the longest sentence I’ve ever composed.

Yes, the Tesla covered more distance with the same size battery. But it isn’t as significantly more efficient as one might be led to believe. The observed range over a 2 year period was 237 miles. This was derived by dividing total battery capacity, 75kWh’s by kW’s per mile, .316. So on average, if the entire battery capacity could be utilized, the 320 mile car would go 237 miles. I’d be PO’d to discover this after purchasing the car.

Every car, motorcycle or truck that I’ve owned has managed to meet or exceed the window sticker mpg rating. Even the Clarity gets 47 miles in EV, 95% of the time in temperatures above 50-60 degrees. The only slightly disappointing number is 36mpg in HV on long trips at 80mph.

We’re a bit off the rails as far as the topic goes. Just thought I’d bring to light some actual Tesla numbers.

 

[lessismore]

Do we have any data to support this statement? Do we know what the long term maintenance and operating costs are for a BEV?

Let’s face it, the ICE components on a modern car are pretty bullet proof for 20+ years and 200-300K miles. Can we say the same for a BEV? What’s more likely to fail are the electronic nanny features, and other high tech gizmos that are now present on both ICE and BEV cars.

I’ve had a 1999 GMC truck since new. Other than fluids, filters, brakes, tires and a 12V battery, the only thing I’ve had to replace was a parking brake cable. How many Cybertrucks will be running around in 22 years still performing as they did when new?

We also have a number of owners who operate and charge the battery, exclusively on gas. In some cases the cost per mile using gas is half of what it would be on electricity. The difference could easily be $500-600/yr, depending on miles driven. That’s more than enough to offset a few oil changes. Who know where the price of either gas or electricity is headed? I don’t see electricity costs going down as demand increases and infrastructure is enhanced. I also don’t see “free” charging as a sustainable operation. Sure, some employers will offer it as a perk, but there is still a cost involved that has to be recovered one way or another.

There’s also the issue of a fuel tax equivalent for BEV’s that will eventually increase the operating cost. It may be all rainbows and unicorns now, but be prepared for changes.

do we need data to support what? . We've got two systems in one vehicle, of course that's added complexity and maintenance. If you are questioning 'double' as exactly 200%, I would say it costs more to maintain ICE system than the EV part, but with Clarity selling in 2017 I cannot back it up with actual average costs of course.
If everyone drives a 1999 GMC as you did, mechanics would be out of jobs. Apparently, my experience has been very different from yours. With my two BMWs, I've replaced alternators, valve covers, water pumps, thermostats, radiators, fans, vanos solenoids, timing chains, eccentric shaft sensors, transfer case actuator motor... the list goes on. I should have bought GMCs, now I know.

 

[Landshark]

do we need data to support what?

To support your statement. I’ll be waiting for your data.

 

[Jimmy Vo]

The observed range over a 2 year period was 237 miles

Not totally true for everyone. At least for my case after owning MY for 2 months, if I don't floor pedal like crazy every time, drive normal like my wife, we can get 290 miles with a full charge for sure including heater

Not sure your number is from "one individual" or not, but certainly if you average out of 2 years, 237 is way too low. I go to Tesla Moto Club forum many time, have not seen any owner said below 260 miles. it's true that no one can reach to 325 miles like Tesla claims in "real-world driving", but the average is between 280 and 300. If you drive 100mph on highway, then yes, your range might be 237 miles. But not average over 2 year period.

 

[jpkik96]

All - curious what are your thoughts on Honda's "revised" EV announcement from Friday - their new CEO clearly has a different take on Honda's future than their prior one. Definitely a little late to the EV party....despite having the 1st Insight to market in 1999 and three versions of the Clarity to market in 2017. Hopefully they can re-commit their engineers to a world-class EV platform!

https://www.automotiveworld.com/new...ances-in-environmental-and-safety-technology/

 

[insightman]

All - curious what are your thoughts on Honda's "revised" EV announcement from Friday - their new CEO clearly has a different take on Honda's future than their prior one. Definitely a little late to the EV party....despite having the 1st Insight to market in 1999 and three versions of the Clarity to market in 2017. Hopefully they can re-commit their engineers to a world-class EV platform!

https://www.automotiveworld.com/new...ances-in-environmental-and-safety-technology/

I bought nothing but Honda cars starting with my 1986 CRX Si through two gen-1 Insights and finally to our Clarity Plug-In Hybrid. I was excited by Honda's Urban EV prototype and the eventual 4-door EV the Honda e. I wrote many letters to Torrance, but my mistake was not asking for a new SUV. American's want big SUVS so that's why we're getting the big Hondultium and the Acurultium rebranded GM SUV EVs instead of the Honda-designed Honda e.

The first Insight and Clarity were home-runs IMO, but cars in general are no longer selling on this continent. Instead, Honda's been selling lots of CR-Vs, Pilots, and Passports. I shouldn't be so peevish that they're offering what sells, but they were willing to sell low volumes of gen-1 Insights to burnish their eco-cred. So why couldn't they sell a few Honda e cars to get people used to Honda being a company that sells electric cars. I think the cute Honda e would be a hit based here on its looks alone, but I'm biased. I hope the company lets the Honda e's designers create all their electric cars.

Last week Honda emailed me an ad for their upcoming next-gen Civic. So boring. Still, I'm glad Honda hasn't abandoned the manufacturing of cars the way GM, Ford, and the US arm of Stellantis have done.

 

[CIvan]

I bought nothing but Honda cars starting with my 1986 CRX Si through two gen-1 Insights and finally to our Clarity Plug-In Hybrid.

Insightman, apparently we were separated at birth. Along with a 2001 Insight, I also owned a 1986 CRX, although mine was an HF. That was also my first Honda.

 

[turtleturtle]

I bought nothing but Honda cars starting with my 1986 CRX Si through two gen-1 Insights and finally to our Clarity Plug-In Hybrid. I was excited by Honda's Urban EV prototype and the eventual 4-door EV the Honda e. I wrote many letters to Torrance, but my mistake was not asking for a new SUV. American's want big SUVS so that's why we're getting the big Hondultium and the Acurultium rebranded GM SUV EVs instead of the Honda-designed Honda e.

The first Insight and Clarity were home-runs IMO, but cars in general are no longer selling on this continent. Instead, Honda's been selling lots of CR-Vs, Pilots, and Passports. I shouldn't be so peevish that they're offering what sells, but they were willing to sell low volumes of gen-1 Insights to burnish their eco-cred. So why couldn't they sell a few Honda e cars to get people used to Honda being a company that sells electric cars. I think the cute Honda e would be a hit based here on its looks alone, but I'm biased. I hope the company lets the Honda e's designers create all their electric cars.

Last week Honda emailed me an ad for their upcoming next-gen Civic. So boring. Still, I'm glad Honda hasn't abandoned the manufacturing of cars the way GM, Ford, and the US arm of Stellantis have done.

I don’t think the Honda e would sell well here, if at all. Great design, but too small as you noted the American appetite for SUVs.

Agree on the new Civic. Not hyped for that one.

 

[insightman]

I don’t think the Honda e would sell well here, if at all. Great design, but too small as you noted the American appetite for SUVs.

If selling well was Honda's only criterion for bringing a model to North America, there would be no 2021 Clarity PHEV. The car may generate a few CARB credits, but the numbers sold are so small that it would be easier to simply purchase credits from Tesla the way many other manufacturers do.

In my many letters to Honda, begging them to sell me first the Honda Urban EV, then the Honda e in later letters, I argued that selling a small BEV in the US would be like when they were happy to sell just 14,000 gen-1 Insights in 7 years. Most people saw the gen-1 Insight as a strange little space-ship, but when told it could achieve 70 mpg, they were impressed with Honda's technical expertise and the company's dedication to saving the planet. An eco-halo car, if you will.

Rather than a strange space-ship, the Honda e would be a cute eco-halo car. Hollywood types embraced Toyota's Prius to show their eco-cred. I believe those influencers would flock to the Honda e, making it the coolest eco-halo car in the country.

I suggested Honda should make the Honda e hard to get and price it high enough to make a profit, rather than selling the car at a loss the way they did with the gen-1 Insight and are doing now with the Clarity Plug-In Hybrid (they're practically giving them away in California). The small numbers of Honda e cars sold would let dealers dip their toes into the BEV pool without being overwhelmed by the new technology. Those dealers would be ready when Honda's mass-market BEVs came to market.

The Honda e is competing in a market filled with similarly sized BEVs, many of which are less expensive and offer greater range. That wouldn't be the case in the US. It would be the Honda e against the MINI Electric (which I purchased after giving up on the Honda e). The MINI Electric, while a very competent car, looks pretty much like every other MINI. The Honda e gets noticed for all the right reasons, reasons enough in my view to bring it to the US and Canada.

I'm glad Honda found reasons to bring the Clarity PHEV to all 50 states (unlike Hyundai and VW BEVs), because we love ours. It would have been nice to have a Honda e as our Clarity's eco-stablemate.