Wow, you are very close... It's too bad you don't live in a "California Emissions State" where you would be covered for 150K miles.
As far as we know, the value that you read with the ELM device is exactly the same as what the dealer would read.
We really have not heard of very many battery failures here. A couple of posts back,
@Thomas Clauser had gotten agreement in principal to have his battery replaced with a value that was slightly above the published threshold. His reading was 38.8, but as of his most recent posting, his dealer had not produced a new battery and I think he had to press the issue before he got 'agreement'. It will be interesting to see how his scenario progresses.
Bottom line - I don't think there are very many who have experiences with warranty replacement... At least, not that we have heard about here.