Bloomberg Model 3 tracker shows production crashing below 1000/week

Pushmi-Pullyu said:
I think the semi-informed guesses were that starting the second week in July, Model 3 production stabilized at about 3500 per week, and of course it has climbed, or will, from there. As has been pointed out many times, the Bloomberg "production tracker" doesn't even pretend to be accurate from week-to-week, but only tries for long-term overall accuracy.

5000 per week was what Tesla almost -- but not quite -- managed to do in the week ending the second quarter. As with every pull-out-the-stops week ending a quarter, Tesla ramped up to an unsustainable production pace, and then immediately after had to take a few days of slack production -- or even a few days off -- for everyone to rest and recuperate.

Personally I wish Tesla would quit this binge-and-purge cycle. But strangely enough, Elon keeps failing to call me up to ask for my personal advice on how he should handle production. He does that every quarter, quite predictably. ;)
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To answer @TeslaInvestors, a quick search gave me this Tesla Registers Over 6,000 New Model 3 VINs, All Dual Motor.

During the analyst call Musk mentioned that they hit 5,000 Model 3 a week in July as well, at least two weeks worth. No idea how low it may have dipped the other weeks.
 
Domenick said:
During the analyst call Musk mentioned that they hit 5,000 Model 3 a week in July as well, at least two weeks worth.
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Ah, I missed that. Thanks, Domenick! So then, it looks like Tesla is doing better at maintaining a steady production rate! Well, coming closer to that, anyway. I've been hoping for years that Tesla would move away from the binge-and-purge production model. Is it too much to hope that's finally happening?

Go Tesla!
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Ah, I missed that. Thanks, Domenick! So then, it looks like Tesla is doing better at maintaining a steady production rate! Well, coming closer to that, anyway. I've been hoping for years that Tesla would move away from the binge-and-purge production model. Is it too much to hope that's finally happening?
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For any number of reasons, build rates are variable week-to-week and looking at them closely at that scale isn't helpful for meaningful analysis. Probably better to consider production by month and/or quarter. I mean, no one ever looks at GM's or Ford's weekly production rates.
 
Domenick said:
I mean, no one ever looks at GM's or Ford's weekly production rates.
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Yes, sometimes it is exasperating to see the way Tesla's production and finances are examined in microscopic detail, far more so than any other auto maker.

On the other hand, Tesla insists on using social media and news outlets for free advertising, refusing to spend (much) money on mass advertising. Since Tesla has invited media scrutiny, it's hardly fair to complain when not all of it is positive.* As I've said frequently: Depending on media "buzz" for free advertising is a two-edged sword!

*On the other hand, it certainly is fair to complain -- loudly -- about certain media outlets which frequently run articles or "stories" heavily biased against Tesla; outlets such as CNBC, Business Insider, and of course everybody's favorite "fair and balanced" news outlet, Faux News! ;)
 
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Inching lower week by week. Elon can't keep it up no more.

Domenick said:
For any number of reasons, build rates are variable week-to-week and looking at them closely at that scale isn't helpful for meaningful analysis. Probably better to consider production by month and/or quarter. I mean, no one ever looks at GM's or Ford's weekly production rates.
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Doubt it. Ford F-series trucks are produced like clock work, no pulsating production that Tesla has invented.

The bloomberg tracker is headed south AGAIN, for the n-th time!

m3_prod_sep15.webp
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Ford F-series trucks are produced like clock work, no pulsating production that Tesla has invented.
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Ah, another report of how things work on Earth-2. Thanks for keeping us entertained! :p

TeslaInvestors said:
The bloomberg tracker is headed south AGAIN, for the n-th time!
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OMG! Set your hair on fire! I'll rush out and sell all my TSLA stock right now!

Oh wait, I don't own any.
:rolleyes:

BTW -- Here on Earth-1, Bloomerg's so-called Model 3 production "tracker" is actually just an estimator, and Bloomberg doesn't claim it's accurate from week to week. They only aim at long-term accuracy. This has been pointed out many times, but of course deliberately ignoring that fits your Tesla-bashing agenda.
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Billdragon said:
I talked with my delivery represantive They are working 6days a week, 12 hours a day. I’m always asked if I want to move up my delivery date. It’s 9-29.
They are delivering a lot of m3’s. The quarterly numbers will be big.
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Is that because Elon laid off half of the staff and thinks he can simulate the workers faster, at the same time also deprive the customers of a good delivery experience, only to fill up his own coffers?
Or is that because he jammed the EOQ with all the deliveries while rest of the time, the employees were sitting idle doing nothing? These shenanigans happen at Tesla delivery centers for more than 4 years every quarter, nothing new.

If they are working 12 hours, it's more likely to be one of these reasons:
- Tesla didn't expand its delivery force adequately.
- Elon fired many employees to stay afloat.
- Tesla is really poor in planning. scaling, training employees or managing customer calls

None of these are good. Ford, GM, Toyota handle 100x volume with no sweat. Tesla must be a really inept and cash starved company.

And why are they asking you to come before quarter end if they already have enough to deliver?
Seems like they are not sure if they will hit their delivery target.
 
@TeslaInvestors:

From what you're saying, things must be really bad on Earth-2. Fortunately, you seem to be the only one living there.

Here on Earth-1, the reality most of us live in, the Tesla Model 3 is now the #5 best-selling "car" (not including light trucks) in the USA, and is likely to achieve a higher rank by year's end.

See "Tesla Model 3 Breaks Into Top 5 Best-Selling Passenger Cars In U.S."

Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!
 
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OMG, Tom gives up on his joke of predictign weekly model 3 production. Instead of showing the histogram for weekly numbers, now he resorts to some smoothed line plot, that shows Tesla never hit 6k a week. Will IEV r-epublish the article with apology that was written to celebrate 6000/week milestone?

What's worse, it's headed SOUTH, towards 2000 a week. I hope Elon stops the downtrend before it hits 0.
I see lifelong free supercharging coming for all Model 3. May be a bundle of cash on the hood also.

tom_gives_up.webp
This seems to line up better with on ground checks by some people.
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
Will IEV r-epublish the article with apology that was written to celebrate 6000/week milestone?

What's worse, it's headed SOUTH, towards 2000 a week. I hope Elon stops the downtrend before it hits 0...
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Will you issue an apology for your endless stream of effluvium on this subject in a couple of weeks, when the official 3rd quarter delivery numbers for the Model 3 are posted?

Of course you won't. Anti-Tesla FUD-mongers never admit they've been proven wrong, no matter how often they are.
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Perhaps even negative?
article-2502655-195D36D200000578-55_634x414.jpg


I bet Bob Lutz and Rick Wagoner could help:
crushed-electric-vehicles.jpg

1.jpg


Bob Wilson
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
OMG, Tom gives up on his joke of predictign weekly model 3 production. Instead of showing the histogram for weekly numbers, now he resorts to some smoothed line plot, that shows Tesla never hit 6k a week. Will IEV r-epublish the article with apology that was written to celebrate 6000/week milestone?

What's worse, it's headed SOUTH, towards 2000 a week. I hope Elon stops the downtrend before it hits 0.
I see lifelong free supercharging coming for all Model 3. May be a bundle of cash on the hood also.

View attachment 2423
This seems to line up better with on ground checks by some people.
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The IEVs team that works on getting the numbers is quite confident in what they publish.
 
marshall said:
From Bloomberg's web page. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

"The changes bring our Method 2 model more in line with Method 1 and, we think, provide a more accurate overall estimate of Tesla’s quarterly production. Our model now suggests that Tesla will come in at the high end of its forecast for quarterly production of 50,000-55,000 Model 3s"
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I need to take back my comment about Tom Randall's model. He is trying his best to decipher the devious tricks that Elon plays on him. So it is really not Tom Randall's fault that Elon is using his fan journalists to push false narratives to the market.
I read the explanation Tom posted, and I think it's good he fine tuned his model to "mind the gaps". The issue is, he also disclosed it, so Elon will now go and fix his own algo of VIN assignment etc. to keep deceiving Tom's model.
Elon is the ultimate mastermind in these kind of games. And then, he will ask analysts to to go look at Bloomberg model for production numbers instead of disclosing such simple numbers.. Of course, he always knew that the model was grossly wrong all the time. But that never stopped him to ask people to use that model.

Tom has also added this disclaimer now (but who really reads all these? I didn't :( ).
We still caution readers not to place too much emphasis on our weekly estimates. For example, our model shows weekly production in a sharp downward trend for September. Upon close inspection of the two datasets, it seems likely that our model overestimated production in August, when Tesla registered an unprecedented number of VINs, and is now underestimating production while Tesla works through its backlog.
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Gee, I wish he said "readers and writers", so it would have covered the IEV writers also, who often write up rosy articles based solely on that unreliable number. Is it a coincidence that Elon now follows IEV instead of Electrek?
 
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Domenick said:
The IEVs team that works on getting the numbers is quite confident in what they publish.
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Seems more like over confidence :)
When that article was published on Aug 23, I wrote in the comments that I am bookmarking it, and will see how long it takes for the model to retroactively correct itself. Not surprisingly, my comment was deleted. I find it rather disturbing, the practice of such fascism in moderating comments. If my comment violates some forum policy, then replace it with what policy it violated. These surreptitious deletion of any comment that is not 100% aligned with author's view is quite distasteful, imho.

Here is that article.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-production-now-exceeding-6000-per-week/
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Seems more like over confidence :)
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Dominick is referring to myself and Steven. We track Tesla sales, not Vanja, and we place no importance on Bloomberg as far as IEV estimates are concerned.

As I explained months ago in this very thread:

Bloomberg Model 3 tracker shows production crashing below 1000/week

"The Bloomberg production tracker is often incorrect because it is not adjusted on the fly or corrected when it is wrong. And it is never outright stopped.

Bloomberg over-estimated April production by at about 3,000 units. Primarily this is because they did not account for the 5 days when production was down. Or the 3-5 days immediately following when production ramped back up to previous levels.

The current production is not 1,000 units / week. Far more than that. Rather than simply correct their number, they are adjusting it below actual production for a few weeks to offset the inflated numbers. Within 2-3 weeks it should be back on track.

The bloomberg tracker is useful and interesting to look back on over time. But it isn't particularly useful as a real time estimator. "

I'm not interested in anything other than the most accurate numbers available. As a result we were less than 500 units off of U.S. delivery estimates in Q2 and about a dozen off for combined U.S. + Canadian deliveries in Q2. AKA within 4% of actual US numbers. We were also about 300-400 on July numbers based on a graph released by Tesla. So yeah, we're confident.

It's impossible to be 100% accurate. We just want to have the best numbers possible.​

TeslaInvestors said:
When that article was published on Aug 23, I wrote in the comments that I am bookmarking it, and will see how long it takes for the model to retroactively correct itself. Not surprisingly, my comment was deleted. I find it rather disturbing, the practice of such fascism in moderating comments. If my comment violates some forum policy, then replace it with what policy it violated. These surreptitious deletion of any comment that is not 100% aligned with author's view is quite distasteful, imho.

Here is that article.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-production-now-exceeding-6000-per-week/
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I don't know what comment may have been deleted. But you seem to be missing the actual text of Vanja's story:

"Keep in mind that the tracker is not accurate when it comes to daily or even weekly current output, but rather, long-term estimates. Also, even if Tesla did have a week that exceeded 6,000 units or a day that would extrapolate to that over time, this doesn’t directly correlate with sustained production. Moreover, as the end of the month is nearing, we always need to keep in mind that production and deliveries are two very different things."

If you don't like the article that's fine. But Vanja's article reported on Bloombergs numbers as "estimates" as they are. And he also provided caution that Bloombergs numbers are not accurate on a short term scale but can signify general trends long term. So attacking him doesn't seem at all appropriate.
 
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