Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by TeslaInvestors, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    You should take your own advice.

    If you choose to keep participating in this forum, you're going to have a very hard time living down your "Earth-2", alternate reality, fake news claims that demand for the Model 3 is collapsing at the very time that it's growing rapidly.

    But fake news is supposed to be something that at least some people might believe is true. Your "Earth-2" claims... not so much! :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    So I visited the Tesla store in Nashville and their Saturday, small staff is taking time to train each buyer. This makes sense as so many are conquest sales from gassers. In contrast, I had to drive by the next door Lexus dealer and four salesmen were in lawn chairs waiting for customers.

    One of the new staff joked about ‘selling extended warranty and options’ and I joked ‘go back to your Lexus dealer.’

    I asked ‘if any of their cars in the lot were available or do I have to order it on the web?’

    They said they could get some configurations in four weeks. The store does not carry uncommitted inventory.

    The store impressed me as being focused on buyer quality of training and orientation over quantity. I would work there in a heart beat.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
  3. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Good to do some research on the ground! They need 4 weeks to locate and then transport an inventory car from one the lots at Lathrop or Burbank in California, or from some yet to be discovered storage lots.
    It always looks better from the outside, doesn't it? Read up on how Solarcity employees got stiffed from their commissions by Tesla.
    Then you will wake up.

    @Pushy, Tesla delivery system is so overloaded, so overloaded, that Elon has started offering free one-year supercharging for RWD Model 3 if you take delivery by this month!
    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...ing-if-i-take-a-delivery-in-september.128873/
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
  4. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    So, Tesla is doing an end-of-quarter sales incentive to temporarily increase demand for RWD LR Model 3's, a narrow segment of Model 3 production for which most domestic pre-orders have already been satisfied.

    Meanwhile, Tesla has also raised the price of AWD by $1000 because demand for that configuration is higher than Tesla expected. But no doubt you'll find some Earth-2 "alternative facts" explanation for why Tesla has raised the price in response to what you claim is demand which has fallen off a cliff. Here on Earth-1, a higher price generally means either higher production costs or higher demand, or both.

    I suppose details such as end-of-quarter sales promotions are significant for those who are obsessed with Tesla's week-to-week sales; the sort of person who follows Bloomberg's weekly production estimator. It's entertaining watching you tie yourself in knots, TeslaInvestors, using pretzel "logic" to justify an increasingly absurd claim that overall demand for the Model 3 has collapsed by pointing to a few branches on one tree instead of looking at the forest. Pretty soon you'll be so twisted up that you'll be biting yourself in the back! :p :rolleyes: :cool:

    Personally, I'm quite content with just the info in InsideEVs monthly sales reports; week to week fluctuations in production and deliveries mean very little to Tesla's long-term business outlook.

    * * * * *

    Looking at the big picture; stepping back and looking at the forest and not just a few branches on one tree:

    Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
    2012: 2650
    2013: 22,300
    2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
    2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
    2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
    2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)

    ...and it looks very much like Tesla is on track for production to increase more than 100% in 2018!!
    :eek: :) :)
     
  5. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    The latest i-Pace killer?

    Is there a master list of Tesla killers?

    FYI, 13 days and counting to Q3.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
    Pushmi-Pullyu likes this.
  7. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    All these so called "Tesla killers" are going after the top end of the market, $75,000 + out of the door. Yes, it may put a small crimp in the sales of Tesla S/X, but it will also expand the market and make EV's more main stream. Let us say Tesla sells about 50,000 S/X this year and competition starts next year. Let us say sales go down by 20%, that is about 10,000 cars. This is assuming that the Audi/Jaguar/Mercedes/Lucid.......... actually are able to produce these number of cars in 2019 (even established manufacturers have ramp up problems). Compared to that Tesla will bring out new models and cheaper versions of the Model 3, and let us assume there are able to sell 100,000 more cars in 2019 (including new models, the Roadster etc. with higher margins) than 2018. This will provide enough of buffer to allow Tesla to continue to innovate and win back market share. Sorry folks, Tesla is not going to suddenly stop selling cars when Audi/Jagur/.........Smart car (as one website claims) come out with their EV's. Lucid which got funding from the Saudis does not even mention when they will produce a car and it looks like their car is at $100K segment.

    This is not to say that Tesla margins will not be impacted. Yes, S/X have more margins that current 3, but then Tesla has to go for economies of scale and of scope. The real battle will be in less than $50,000 segment, which is where the volumes are. So I am not saying the road for Tesla is as easy as compared to when they were the only game in town. Far from that. They are going to find other manufacturers eyeing this market. There are going to be the serious competitors who will take away some market share. Then, there are the pretenders who will make a lot of noise and fade away. Let us not take all these announcements too seriously. Tesla is not going to go away that easily but they do have their work cut out for them.
     
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    Tesla pretty much wiped out the gas/diesel powered, luxury cars. Having suffered the loss of this market, the existing manufacturers are trying to stay in the game.

    Bob Wilson
     
  9. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

  10. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    Not sure I would go as far as saying that they have wiped out the gas/diesel powered, luxury cars but they have made a big dent on these other maufacturers. Tesla X/S sold about 5400 cars in August as per Domenick's EV sales numbers up from about the half the number the previous month. Depending upon where you draw the cut off (BMW 3 series, 5 series, 7 series etc), they would have between say 10 to 35% of the market share. If you compare S/X with only the top end, (Mercedes S, BMW 7, Porsche Panamera, Lexus LS etc. ), it is about a third of the market share. If you say Tesla is able to sell about 4000 S/X per month at $100,000 a car, that is about $400 million a month, which they have taken away from the other manufacturers.

    By no means insignificant as these cars have the highest margins. So yes it will have an impact if Tesla's market share in this segment reduces from say 35% to say 25%, but then Tesla will make up some or all of that with other models. And you are right, this loss in market share for existing manufacturers is causing them to sit up and decide they need to stem their losses, for if they do not do anything, Tesla may take over 50% of the market.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    At 28% margin per Q2 report, $112 million profit. It used to be they were paying a 'CARB' tax but loss of $400 million has got to hurt too.

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    OMG! Set your hair on fire! I'll rush out and sell all my TSLA stock right now!

    Oh wait, I don't own any.
    :rolleyes:

    Apparently when TeslaInvestors says "stock in freefall", he means a 4% drop before stabilizing again. (Well, as much as Tesla's highly volatile stock ever "stabilizes", which isn't much.)

    I guess we need an FUD-to-English translator here.
    :D :D :D
     
  13. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Enumerating all the wannabe Tesla "killers" would be a pretty long list by now! ...and all batting close to zero.

    Meanwhile, Tesla's runaway success with the Model 3 shows the "big boys" how it's done!

    Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!
    :) :) :cool:
     
  14. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    My point is that it will not be $400 million a month. I do not believe that it will collapse to zero in one year. Some part will be lost to competition, some part to other to cars like the roadster, and some will remain, people will continue to buy the S/X. So I am guess the net loss is say $100 million to $150 million and the margin leakage will be say $28-42 million. Some portion of this margin will be made up by increased sales of the Model 3. All these are guesses, but my guess is that the impact will be much less than what the bears predict but it may be higher than the supporters think it will be. One thing people forget is increased competition in newer technologies has a way of increasing over all market size and bringing in new buyers, who might not have been interested before. So if Audi or Jaguar do well, some of their sales will come from potential Tesla customers, some from customers who wanted to buy another Audi product, and some from customers, who might not have considered a EV initially but decided to look at EVs due to increase in viability. In mature markets, it is more of a zero sub game. EV is still a growing market.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    We could speculate or just read:

    Q2 2018
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459018019254/tsla-10q_20180630.htm

    Code:
    (Dollars in thousands)
    Three Months Ended June 30,     2018        2017    $change    %
    Automotive sales          $3,117,865  $2,013,852 $1,104,013  55%
    Automotive leasing          $239,816    $272,764   -$32,948 -12%
    Total automotive
       revenues                $3,357,681 $2,286,616 $1,071,065  47%
    Services and other           $270,142   $216,161    $53,981  25%
    Total automotive &
       services and other
       segment revenue         $3,627,823 $2,502,777 $1,125,046  45%
    Energy generation and
       storage segment revenue   $374,408   $286,780    $87,628  31%
    Total revenues             $4,002,231 $2,789,557 $1,212,674  43%
    

    Looks OK to me.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Quite the reverse; publicity over the Tesla Roadster Mk II will contribute to higher demand for the S/X. That's why auto makers build halo cars like the Roadster. If halo cars didn't lead to larger overall sales for auto makers, then they wouldn't put them into production.

    Re the repeated and futile attempts by "TeslaInvestors" to use this thread to convince us that Tesla is in decline: "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Serial Tesla bashers never learn from history, and are doomed to repeat their foolish predictions of Tesla's supposed decline and fall over and over and over again. One might almost call them... Losers!
    ;)
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    A Prius owner since 2005, I've heard similar "buzzz-hit" before. The best clean up are facts and data.

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Our old hat Bob with some interesting comments about today's DOJ probe.

    Tesla is 'headed for the graveyard,' predicts former GM exec Bob Lutz
    "Tesla has no … tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage. No advantages whatsoever," he said.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/tes...aveyard-predicts-former-gm-exec-bob-lutz.html
     
  19. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Tesla taking a massive beating in Norway. Nissan Leaf is choking Tesla sales there.
    http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/

    # Model August YTD
    --------------------------------
    1 Nissan Leaf 1241 8012
    2 VW e-Golf 764 4371
    3 BMW i3 473 3542
    4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 190 2353
    5 Tesla Model X 113 2346
    6 Tesla Model S 82 1959

    It's not looking good this month also. Only half of last year's Septemer so far.
    http://www.teslastats.no/
    tesla_norway.JPG
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2018
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member

    One of the logical fallacies Prius owners and climate science students have to deal with are selective edits ... lying by omission:

    Lutz said Tesla is "hemorrhaging cash" and because of the federal investigation, the SEC will not let it make a capital raise.

    He also said there is competition coming from not only Audi but Mercedes, BMW and Porsche. And those auto manufacturers can sell their cars at a loss and make up for it on sales of internal combustion vehicles.

    "Tesla has no … tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage. No advantages whatsoever," he said.
    ...
    The former GM executive has been a frequent critic of Musk and has said the CEO should step aside. This also not the first time he has predicted the demise of Tesla.

    1. "hemorrhaging cash" - was making the capital and staff improvements needed to make cars.
    2. "competition" - are late and still not doing volume sales. As for subsidy by "sales of internal combustion vehicles," that is exactly the future as those cars become more expensive and excluded from urban areas.
    3. "Tesla has no ... tech advantage" - ignores the SuperCharger network and Gigafactory. Even Insideev has facts and data showing Lutz is out of touch: https://insideevs.com/electric-cars-us-price-range-comparison/ and https://insideevs.com/compare-plug-ins/
    4. "... he has predicted the demise of Tesla" - and will until folks figure out he doesn't know what he claims to be talking about.
    Regardless of Lutz, we are 12 days away from the end of Q3 and the facts and data. I like my bet. If Lutz wants to bet on the other side, there are plenty of opportunities. He could announce his "short" position.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2018

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