Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by TeslaInvestors, Sep 2, 2018.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    If I hadn't looked at the TSLA financials and history, I would agree. It turns out the profit+loss vs stock price shows each brief profit resulted in a significant, step increase in stock price. My expectation is in 11 days we'll see press releases and reports followed by the Q3 detailed report with about a $2B profit. With the funds they already have from Q2, Tesla can easily handle any pending debt.
    It is a small part of the 401k, my gambling money. Because I turn 70 in three years, I will be forced to take 25% and that risks boosting our gross income close to the 22% tax rate. I monitor TSLA progress and there are no guarantees. If there is a path to Q4 profitability, I'll stay. Regardless, by the end of January 2019, I'll diversify, probably precious metals.

    What I'd like to see is:
    • stock split - bring the price low enough for ordinary investors
    • split off Tesla Trucks from Tesla Motors - this might bring Tesla Trucks into a low enough capitalization that it could go private. Using the lessons learned, built a another manufacturing facility while Tesla Motors continues to distract the usual suspects.
    • Tesla U. - in house training to build up supervisors and managers from their staff.
    Bob Wilson

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  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Found a 'short' tracking web site:

    Sept 8, 2018:
    Short Interest (Shares Short)           32,720,600
    Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover)           2.2
    Short Percent of Float                       25.82%
    Short % Increase / Decrease                     -6%
    Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior   34,989,500
    Shares Float                           126,718,700
    Trading Volume - Today                  22,332,777
    Trading Volume - Average                15,118,800
    Trading Volume - Today vs. Average          147.72%
    % Owned by Insiders                          25.31%
    % Owned by Institutions                      63.96%
    . . .
    Market Cap.                       $ 43,932,123,600
    Sept 14, 2018:
    Short Interest (Shares Short)           32,843,800
    Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover)           3.5
    Short Percent of Float                       25.76%
    Short % Increase / Decrease                      0%
    Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior   32,720,600
    Shares Float                           127,518,400
    Trading Volume - Today                   6,722,632
    Trading Volume - Average                 9,252,100
    Trading Volume - Today vs. Average           72.66%
    % Owned by Insiders                          25.19%
    % Owned by Institutions                      59.53%
    . . .
    Market Cap.                       $ 49,265,928,000
    Sept 21, 2018:
    Short Interest (Shares Short)           32,843,800
    Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover)           3.5
    Short Percent of Float                       25.76%
    Short % Increase / Decrease                      0%
    Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior   32,720,600
    Shares Float                           127,518,400
    Trading Volume - Today                   4,974,002
    Trading Volume - Average                 9,252,100
    Trading Volume - Today vs. Average           53.76%
    % Owned by Insiders                          25.19%
    % Owned by Institutions                      59.53%
    . . .
    Market Cap.                       $ 49,916.799,000
    Let's take another peek next week.

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2018
  4. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Tesla brings back free supercharging that Elon just ended last weekend, bcs he realized it was "unsustainable". Elon eats crow and deletes this tweet.
    This time free supercharging offered even on LR Model 3s.
    Adding link:
    (Can't believe I'm linking to electrek. What an 180 degrees shift.)

    Never knew that one can just say and then unsay things on twitter so freely with no legal consequences. LOL. Is unsay even a word?
    I guess Elon will say he invented it. :)
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2018
  5. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    It's amazing how the tone of commenters on that Electrek article has changed, as disillusionment and the sense of being cheated with their Model 3 hits home.
    People making their monthly payments on $60k to $80k cars with no car to drive :( People getting poor quality cars, making multiple trips to service centers is another issue. It's like you are damned if you got your car, you're damned if you didn't.
    Many of these people are coming from Toyota and Honda like cars, that have stellar reliability and quality.

    It used to be full of starry eyed wannabe Tesla owners commenting all kinds of utopian nonsense.
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2018
  6. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    I totally missed this in the InsideEV story today about some insider info from Tesla (emphasis mine):
    That's crazy! Tesla was not supposed to start international deliveries of Model 3 till next year. Supposedly, they have so much demand to fulfill at home before the $7500 credit is reduced, that Elon has been shooting to produce 10k a week forever.

    This doesn't look good. Not even one quarter in, Tesla has to ship Model 3 to China? Seems the 210k reservation queue in US has run dry too soon.
    Even after throwing in some freebies like free supercharging (that is unsustainable, according to Elon).
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2018
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Gosh darn, Elon adjusts to market conditions? The nerve! Does he think he is CEO?

    Regardless, 10 days and counting to end of Q3.

    Bob Wilson
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Ah, well that's far more sensible. I thought from what you were saying you had sunk most of your 401(k) funds into Tesla stocks!

    My apologies for thinking you needed some advice from someone who's not even a "financial guy". Clearly you know what you're doing. :oops:

    Yeah, I was quite surprised when I looked at the price of major legacy auto makers' stocks. They are all far lower, or at least the ones I checked were. Looks like Tesla isn't interested in lowering the bar for buying its stock, which seems strange to me! But perhaps Tesla thinks a high price is one way to fight volatility?

    Just some guessing from someone who's not a "financial guy".
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2018
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Could you talk to my wife of 41 years about this? <grins>

    Bob Wilson
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    To learn how to spot logical inconsistencies, I throughly recommend Denial 101 (i.e., @TeslaInvestors.) An online course, ~30 hours, oriented towards climate denial, it also teaches how to spot logical inconsistencies. These techniques also work on issues ranging from tobacco, politics, or stock advice. Let me share an example from "Seeking Alpha."

    Source: by Bill Maurer, September 21, 2018


    "Another quarter ending. Where is the $35,000 Model 3?"
    . . .

    (Elon Musk, "With production, 1st you need to achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live." May 20, 2018)
    "OK, that does seem logical. Tesla needs to get costs in check before it can move to its lowest margin variant of the Model 3. Nobody seems to be arguing the point that a $35,000 Model 3 would really hurt margins and further impact the company's financial situation."

    So on one hand, Maurer takes umbrage about the $35k Model 3 and on the other agrees that premature manufacturing would risk Tesla going out of business. There is no requirement for Tesla to commit a suicide that even Maurer acknowledges.​

    "Six months after ratings downgrade, production still weak."

    ". . . Here's what has been detailed:
    • Latest Friday to Friday period saw 3,800 Model 3 units produced, following a week of 4,400 and 3,100 before that.
    • More than 70,500 vehicles have been produced quarter to date, including more than 46,000 Model 3 units.
    • The previous Friday saw a record of more than 800 Model 3 units produced and there were two days that saw S/X/3 production over 1,000 units.
    If these numbers are accurate, they would seem to indicate that Tesla will fall within its guidance range of 50,000 to 55,000 units for the quarter. However, let's not forget that even at the top end of that range, it implies a weekly rate ( 55,000 / 92 * 7 ) for the quarter of less than 4,200 units."

    How do ratings impact production? Production depends on capital equipment, labor experience, and materials. The stock ratings are a result, not a driver of production. Tesla has the materials, especially batteries; capital equipment to do a burst 5k/week, and; every week improves labor and supplier experience. Those are impressive and improving production metrics.​


    "Interest rates on the rise yet again."
    . . .
    "Finally, let's not ignore the fact that interest rates are starting to rise again, and the Fed is expected to hike its target range next week. As you can see in the chart below, the 10-Year Treasury bond yield is back above 3.00% again, and nearly 30 basis points above where it was when Moody's downgraded Tesla's credit rating back in March."

    Maurer could have taken the outstanding debt and interest from Q2 and calculated an an effect of new interest rates. Then use the historical interest rates to see what Tesla got. But he didn't. In contrast, I've read the Q2 financials:
    "Note 10 – Convertible and Long-Term Debt Obligations
    The following is a summary of our debt as of June 30, 2018 (in thousands):"
    I don't see Tesla's doom in interest rate increases that can't be managed by Tesla. Especially if Tesla achieves a $2B profit in Q3.​

    There are more useless notes in this article. Many are just 'grasping at straws' with no bearing on Tesla productivity and financial state. But this is the type of bear food for their postings.

    If our 'bear(s)' want to cut-and-paste announcements of a natural disaster that destroys Fremont and the Reno Gigafactory, I'm more amused than really interested. The calendar works against them as Q3 ends in 10 days.

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2018
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  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    From the article:

    Like the Macintosh, if you have a superior product, people will pay for it and become exceptionally loyal. That led to my Apple stock success. In similar fashion, Tesla all but phoned home, 10 days and counting.

    Bob Wilson
  14. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Top vendors market share (2017)
    Top 6 vendors by number of units shipped, 2017
    Manufacturer Market share[1]
    1 HP 21.0%
    2 Lenovo 20.8%
    3 Dell 15.2%
    4 Apple 7.4% <-
    5 Asus 6.8%
    6 Acer 6.5%
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  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Mac users swear by them, not at them. Apple has a rigorous quality program for both their hardware, OS, and application software. This means we don't have to worry about thieves embedding bad things in Apple software including the applications.

    The only way I can stand to use a windows system is to replace the OS with Debian Linux, the closest thing to MacOS:
    • Priced right - free
    • Source code available - so if something is broke, I can find and fix the problem.
    • Crowd sourced support - it means other bug fixes are found and added to the code base.
    • No forced changes - unlike MicroSoft, the Debian community runs a lot of legacy software because the code is available and the user chooses.
    Microsoft abuse of their users is legendary. For me, it started in 1984 when I went to buy my first personal computer. The 128k Mac was $1,750 and the local paper had an ad for a PC at ~$1,100. I went to the PC store and selected the model and then the salesman asked, 'Do you want a monitor and keyboard?' When I asked about a mouse, the price exceeded the Macintosh that came with a built-in handle so I could use it at home and office.

    I hate 'bait and switch' thieves but I understand others may not understand the difference between Apple and Microsoft quality. You get what you pay for and Microsoft is too expensive for the subsequent pain and agony. It is death by a thousand cuts as soon as you buy one.

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2018
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

  17. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Well, there is something called a budget for most people. Apple products may be best, but not everyone can afford that.
    I also don't want to be locked into Apple ecosystem. I find it difficult to digest that Apple isn't into open standards.

    About the bait and switch: The biggest one is happening right now. Someone promised a $35k best car ever, took deposits, but is not showing any sign of producing the promised car. If it is ever produced, it would be no longer a novelty and the buyers won't get the tax credit they were banking on. I think, you said that is your kind of guy. Irony! :)
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2018
  18. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    That is just someone's opinion, most likely of some Tesla acolyte's. No data presented to prove anything. I can write up a better piece to show that Tesla is the worst electric car.
    Tesla may be good in electric powertrain for those who are willing to live with suddenly dead car on the roads, make frequent trips to service centers and serve the car instead of being served by the car, just so they can drag race few times on the streets.
    But vast majority have other considerations for a car purchase. The other car makers are much better in those.
    Pretty much in all the aspects of quality, reliability, delivery experience, pricing, servicing, parts availability, repair times, etc. Even old ice cars are fast enough for most people. So any electric car will do for them for performance.

    About 4-5 years ago, both Toyota and Mercedes used to buy powertrains from Tesla to keep it afloat when it was about to go bankrupt.
    Toyota had to recall its RAv4 EV few times to fix powertrain issues. Of course, you will never see articles on those issues in the ev sites.
    Neither will you see the Tesla recalls, because Tesla likes to do these secretly, since it's a negative thing.

    Here is a nice and positive article about Tesla (seriously positive) on how it is able to get its owner community help it deliver many cars.

    BTW, didn't you say you will love to work in Tesla showrooms and delivery centers? Here is your opportunity knocking. Elon is asking for free labor from its owners cum shareholders in delivering cars. You may have to first help Elon by buying one of his inventory cars to become an owner, then dedicate your free time to help him get richer so he can keep flying in his G650 ER while stiffing his workers, sales people and customers. :)
    I'm thinking, pretty soon, he will ask these volunteers to also place those bundles of cash on the hoods of cars to move some metal.
    After all, they have their stock in TSLA that will go up as they sell more Teslas. So nothing to lose.
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2018
  19. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    If that's not trolling, then I don't know what trolling is.

    Dude, wouldn't you be more comfortable on a coal-rolling or at least a gearhead forum, where your naked outright hatred for EVs would find at least some who might appreciate such extreme EV bashing?
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Well I ordered 60 and 10 shares of Tesla and got them. I’d have been upset if it hadn’t been Tesla stock or required an extra $ee.

    I do not plan to replace our BMW i3-REx or Prius Prime until after the Fort Smith SuperCharger comes online. Even then I would shop for an end of lease Tesla. The depreciation is greater than the tax credit and faster.

    Yes, I would love to work at Tesla. Just I don’t own a Tesla and the two hour commute to Nashville is a little too far. Four hours on the road each day plus a housekeeper for my home-bound wife ... impractical.

    Bob Wilson

    FYI, nine days and counting.
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2018
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  21. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    You are losing it man. It took me 2 minutes to prove how bad this Model 3 is. If it's going to eat up Camry sales, it ought to live up to the current industry standards. The gung-ho style tentathalons of building cars with random interns and software programmers ( customers and shareholders next?) isn't working.
    Here is some quality comparison from truedelta. The 'very few moving parts' is not helping it.

  22. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    It took ‘two minutes’ to type. Proof takes more than a forum posting.

    Bob Wilson
  23. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    This again seems to be projection on your part. As the announcement Tesla's 3rd quarter profit-and-loss statement gets closer, your posts seem to be getting more and more unhinged, and further and further from reality. Dude, if you're that worried about your short investment, why not just sell it off?

    I'm being serious here. This appears to be causing you a great deal of stress. Is it really worth it to you to keep posting what everyone can see is increasingly desperate -- and increasingly embarrassing for you -- disinformation? o_O

    :p :p :p

    Apparently the word "prove" has a very different meaning on Earth-2 than it does here on Earth-1.

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