Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by TeslaInvestors, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Perhaps we can set a good example for others . . . Ok, maybe I'm expecting too much from them.

    Bob Wilson
  2. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

  3. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    The constant accusations of law breaking don't lend your arguments gravitas.

    Also, $400, not $500.
    "Shah reduced his price target to $300 from $400 for Tesla's stock, representing 5 percent upside from Monday's close."
  4. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I certainly wish that committing stock fraud by participating in a campaign of repeatedly posting company-bashing FUD to social media, in a deliberate and organized attempt to manipulate the stock price, was a crime punishable by prison time. It's certainly unethical and immoral; if it's not illegal, it certainly ought to be!

    Why is that one type of stock fraud ignored by the SEC?

  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Because being stupid is not a crime:

    I agree with Jon Stewart:

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2018
  6. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    In this case, it's the lack of any law to enforce responsiible analysis is the issue, not law breaking.

    I'm afraid someone has to eat a crow on this one. The short term memory of people (market) is what these analysts exploit,
    Just throw out all the numbers as targets. When the price hits any of them, claim "told ya so!" and claim that he is a genius analyst. When it misses, don't mention it.

    This was less than a year ago. How soon we forget.
    What's bizarre, is that these so called "analysts" aren't even required to have any experience or knowledge in the auto industry. Just come up with any BS and feed it to the public who aren't smart enough to question the BS.
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2018
  7. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I certainly agree with what Jon Stewart said about Cramer. And what Cramer did was a crime. If my understanding is correct, Stewart outing Cramer for his self-admitted fraud lead to an SEC investigation of Cramer, and that lead to the latter no longer being allowed to manage his former... whatever it was; money market fund or hedge fund or whatever. (If any part of that is incorrect, please do correct me.)

    I admit you have me totally confused, Bob, where you call the organized anti-Tesla campaign against Tesla, using smear campaign and FUD to commit fraud, merely "stupid". How is that in any way less criminal than what Cramer did? So far as I can tell, the only difference is that Cramer got more attention to his attempts to manipulate stock priced because he was/is on TV.

  8. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    What is bizarre is you complaining about exactly the same behavior you exhibit in most of your posts to this forum. It's like you're complaining about your own playbook!
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    The line between stupid and criminal can be fuzzy. Intent has a lot to do with it so that is why we have the SEC and courts. Had Elon mused about going private and sold a bunch of stock on the bump, he would be liable. But near as I can tell from 3d party reports, it was more of a spontaneous thought that had not been cleared with the board and encouraged by earlier offers from the Saudi. Regardless, it'll be adjudicated in the court(s) soon enough . . . once all the cases are combined and the land sharks realize they are only going to get a taste if successful or nothing if it goes the way, as I expect.

    As for the FUD merchants, it only works if you can be scared by the same things. Since I've seen in Musk the same brilliance of a Steve Jobs or rare, inspired bosses in the past, I'll go with my experience. Of course I could be wrong but I'm playing with my chips.

    The funny thing is three months ago I really didn't care about Tesla or Musk. Our two plug-in hybrids met and still exceed expectations. It was the pathological postings of ‘he who must not be named’ that piqued my curiosity.

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2018
  10. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Thanks for your interesting perspective on things.
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Bloomberg has two approaches to tracking Model 3 production: NHTSA VIN requests and user VIN reports:

    I am not happy with the 'user VIN' analysis because there was a plateau midway and the subsequent trend line appears to drop a distinct delta, a percentage, midway:

    So I took a snapshot of the Bloomberg chart, overplayed a grid of weekly verticals and 10k horizontals, and measured the weekly numbers from January 1, 2018:
    Using the highest 'dot' in each week, I transferred the data to a spreadsheet.

    Here we see an exponential trend line with vertical dashed line for each quarter.:
    • Week 24-30 -> (100 - 60) / 6 ~= 6,666 Model 3 per week
    It is not unusual to stop production for rework, retraining, and repair. We are also dealing with user reported VIN. So a more pessimistic rate:
    • Week 24-32 -> (105 - 60) / 8 ~= 5,625 Model 3 per week
    Meanwhile, Bloomberg claims "3,486 Model 3 per week" which I think is inaccurate for Q3 production.

    I do like user reported VIN because that means production and delivery to end user which books the sale.

    Bob Wilson
  12. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Starting from zero, every plot looks like exponential. We have to wait for few quarters to see how exponential it is.
    The 10k a week Elon promised the investors long time ago is pushed out to God knows when.
    Electrek has reported that Tesla never reached the 6k a week it targeted in August.

    Bloomberg tracker is a joke. It's easy to fool, so Elon asked investors to check that to get a pulse of how production is going.
    It shows Tesla never hti 5k a week in June. We will know pretty soon if Tesla prodiced a total of 90k Model 3s.
    I'd think, data based on new car registration is more accurate to predict sales.

    It looks optimistic compared to the ground level checks people are doing.
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Perhaps but there aren't many alternative except perhaps for GoodCarBadCar:

      Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun       Jul       Aug
    1,875    2,485    3,820    3,875    6,250    6,062    14,250    17,800

    • 3869/wk ~= 17800 Model 3 sales / 4.6 weeks :: August 4 weeks + 3 days
    • 3392/wk ~= 14250 Model 3 sales / 4.2 weeks :: July 4 weeks + 2 days - 1 holiday
    • 32,050 Model 3 for August and July, 8.8 weeks
    So comparing to Bloomberg VIN tracking as I modified:
    • 40000 ~= 100000 - 60000 :: Model 3 sales July to September
    • 5714/wk ~= 40000 / 7 weeks :: Model 3 sales per weeks of July and August
    I need to check my week scale as 8.8 != 7 weeks.

    Bob Wilson
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Estimated Model 3 sales since Q2 2018:
    • 6250 model 3/ wk ~= (100000 - 50000) / 8 weeks :: Using digitized Bloomberg
    • 4000 model 3/ kw ~= (68000 - 36000) / 8 weeks :: Using trend line GoodCarBadCar
    I wonder if anyone else has published an opinion like a Tesla skeptic:

    Tesla expects to make 6,000 Model 3 sedans in a week by the end of August, the company said in its second-quarter earnings letter, and a total of 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3s in the third quarter.
    . . .
    Achieving a consistent production rate of 5,000 Model 3s and 7,000 total vehicles per week is critical to the company's goal of becoming profitable. Tesla struggled to increase production after the Model 3 was launched in July 2017 and twice missed its self-imposed deadline to produce 5,000 in a week, but hit that rate at the end of June. During the second quarter, the company made more Model 3s than in the prior three quarters combined, in part due to a new production line, known as GA4, the company assembled in an outdoor, tent-like structure.

    Bob Wilson
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Found a 'short' tracking web site:

    Sept 8, 2018:
    Short Interest (Shares Short)           32,720,600
    Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover)           2.2
    Short Percent of Float                       25.82%
    Short % Increase / Decrease                     -6%
    Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior   34,989,500
    Shares Float                           126,718,700
    Trading Volume - Today                  22,332,777
    Trading Volume - Average                15,118,800
    Trading Volume - Today vs. Average          147.72%
    % Owned by Insiders                          25.31%
    % Owned by Institutions                      63.96%
    . . .
    Market Cap.                       $ 43,932,123,600
    Sept 14, 2018:
    Short Interest (Shares Short)           32,843,800
    Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover)           3.5
    Short Percent of Float                       25.76%
    Short % Increase / Decrease                      0%
    Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior   32,720,600
    Shares Float                           127,518,400
    Trading Volume - Today                   6,722,632
    Trading Volume - Average                 9,252,100
    Trading Volume - Today vs. Average           72.66%
    % Owned by Insiders                          25.19%
    % Owned by Institutions                      59.53%
    . . .
    Market Cap.                       $ 49,265,928,000
    Let's take another peek next week.

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2018
  16. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    This looks like total guesswork to me. Even the Canadian numbers are WAGs. How can both July and August be 950?
    And how did they even publish Canada numbers for September ahead of time?
    Why don't use use wards auto data? They have been tracking sales for decades. They must be doing something right.

    The big question will be how many buyers will pony up $50k+ for problem ridden electric cars. Tesla has been sending me unsolicited emails for couple of weeks now. May be I should go check out how desperately they want to sell me a car and what kind of Model 3 inventory they got.
    They have been calling other people too.
    Then, Elon drops the excuse of having delivery bottleneck. Obviously, lack of buyers is a major bottleneck. :)
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    My understanding is Wards requires a subscription fee for that data. I have a free subscription but it does not include vehicle sales.
    Any thoughts about how they got your e-mail?
    I just checked MYEV.COM and it showed two Model 3 in Texas. Do you have another source?

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2018
  18. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    It was mentioned by Wards reporter in the video I posted up-thread. No need to subscribe to Wards.
    I test drove a Model S 4 1/2 years ago.

    It seems you aren't keeping abreast of happenings. Last weekend Tesla organized instant delivery events all across USA, and mainly in California.
    Many cars to pick from. No need to order beforehand or reserve one. Just go in, like a car, buy it and drive off. Just like at thousands of dealerships across the world.
    But Tesla has a fancy name for the dealership model that exists for decades. Tesla calls it their "new delivery system".
    Sold out for years.. pfff! All the backlog gone with the wind with just a few weeks of deliveries.

    Here is a revealing reddit thread on it. Lots of cars, more cars on trucks and in overflowing parking lots.

    And may I remind again about the overflowing storage lots? Tesla is swimming in Model 3 inventory. :)
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
  19. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Presumably that was Tesla's "Drive Electric Week" promotion. I think it's great that they're trying alternative methods of sales, altho I would be happier if trying something different was by choice, other than -- as it appears -- a rather desperate attempt to relieve the bottleneck of Tesla's overloaded delivery system. Tesla Model 3 production is finally ramping up quite swiftly, and Tesla is struggling mightily to have the delivery system and the service centers keep pace.

    Hmmm? Did Tesla use high-pressure salesmen haggling over prices? Did they use "bait and switch" tactics on prospective buyers? Did they try to "upsell" buyers with extended service plans and useless options like underbody coating or fabric protection?

    No, none of these things?

    Well then, I guess it was not at all "Just like at thousands of dealerships", was it? :confused: :rolleyes: :cool:

    I'm reminded of what Rachel Maddow once said on her show, about how hard-right wingnuts live in a "bubble world" denying reality rather firmly. She talked about "Earth-1", the real world where people actually live, as opposed to the wingnuts' alternate reality of "alternative facts" and fake news.

    Her comment reminded me of the old DC Comics, where there was "Earth-1", the familiar DC universe of the superheroes we know and love, but also "Earth-2", an alternate world with different history and different superheroes.

    Well, TeslaInvestors, your claims here seem to be a message from Earth-2. They have no relationship to the world as we know it, and I for one don't think you honestly believe a word of it. You're not that crazy; you know perfectly well the huge demand for the Model 3 has not suddenly collapsed. In fact, I rather suspect you are well aware that on Earth-1, demand is constantly growing.

    One more point: Your "message from Earth-2" claims are a good illustration of that saying: "Denial is not a river in Egypt." ;)

  20. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    If you want to crack jokes, you need to try harder :) If the delivery system was overloaded, as you just "presume", Tesla won't be calling non-reservation holders and won't be sending unsolicited email to me, who hasn't contacted them in years, to come and buy a Model 3 without any res.
    If you post this kind of illogical comments, readers won't take anything you say seriously. Oh wait.. :)

    Tell me the car you want to buy, any car. I will send you to dealerships near you where you can buy it with 0 haggle.
    You can pay the MSRP (and even more if you want) with zero haggling, all day long, everyday.
    It seems you haven't bought a new car in this century.

    To maintain a higher level in this thread, I'm not going to respond to your other mumbo-jumbo.

Share This Page