Testing Autopilot

We have seen reports that traffic light detection is embedded but locked in the current AutoPilot. Then we read this:
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/2-pedestrians-struck-by-Tesla-in-the-Tenderloin-14112314.php

22 year old lady driver
+45 mph excessive speed
ran red light
broadsided by a Mini Cooper
struck two pedestrians and killed one​

I suspect the traffic light detection will be soon enabled.

More technical details: https://abc7news.com/vallejo-woman-idd-as-tesla-driver-in-sf-crash-that-killed-tourist/5411417/

Bob Wilson
 
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Source: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

In the 2nd quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.27 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.19 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.41 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 498,000 miles.​

Comparing large numbers is a challenge that relative percentages can clarify. As a general rule, larger numbers are considered better so we'll use the NHTSA number as the base:
  • 100% - USA car crashes
  • 283% - safer Tesla with just defaults, unassisted driver
  • 440% - safer Tesla with free, safety features assisting driver
  • 657% - safer Tesla with for fee, AutoPilot assisting driver
Another way to represent the same with smaller, easier to understand numbers:
  • USA car crashes
  • 2.3 times safer - Tesla with just defaults, unassisted driver
  • 4.4 times safer - Tesla with the free, safety features assisting driver
  • 6.6 times safer - Tesla with for a fee, safety features assisting driver
Bob Wilson
 
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/26/safety-groups-want-ftc-state-probes-of-teslas-autopilot-system.html

Two consumer safety groups are calling for federal and state investigations of Tesla’s semi-autonomous technology in the wake of several fatal crashes linked to the system earlier this year.

The groups contend the automaker violated Section 5 of the FTC Act, as well as California consumer law.
. . . ​

Called the "Center for Auto Safety" run by Jason Levine, a right-wing Federalist Society lawyer, is nonsense. He has spent the past decade bedeviling Toyota at every opportunity. His business model is court cases.

One good thing is we may finally get the NHTSA and IIHS to finally do a proper statistical analysis of Tesla accidents. There are enough Teslas doing enough miles to do a credible, independent, statistical analysis.

Bob Wilson
 
From another source: https://newsroom.statefarm.com/distracted-driving-advanced-tech

1920_ddadasgraphicshort2-246217.jpg

What is missing from this survey is a report of accident rates with ACC and LKA engaged versus not having them.

Bob Wilson
 
I've heard reports from several people about premature and excessive auto-braking incidents with this new (to me) technology.
The reports are not restricted to BEVs. And I don't recall any Tesla reports. But maybe I missed them?
Curious how Tesla's autopilot behaves in this respect?
 
brulaz said:
I've heard reports from several people about premature and excessive auto-braking incidents with this new (to me) technology.
The reports are not restricted to BEVs. And I don't recall any Tesla reports. But maybe I missed them?
Curious how Tesla's autopilot behaves in this respect?
Click to expand...
We call it "phantom braking" and it can easily be reproduced as I did:

Speed dropped from 16 mph to 9 mph and resumed within 3 seconds.

I had the same problem with our "Magic Eye", 2014 BMW i3-REx. For me, no big deal as I can easily apply the accelerator and it becomes a non-event. But if you are someone with a more sensitive "startle" response, it can be unnerving.

A week ago, Tesla upgraded the software to 2019.24.4 from 2019.20.4. In the past +100 miles, these "phantom braking" events have become much less frequent. But this could just be conditional on environment as anything else.

Tesla Autopilot expects the driver to be alert and ready to take over the car. It is expected to have a "man in the loop" to handle edge cases. So after documenting the Autopilot shortcomings, I can replicate the conditions and have noticed an improvement, not perfect, but fewer issues. Passengers may not be as calm about these incidents.

Bob Wilson
 
Detailed report on running into firetruck partially obscuring HOV lane:

Source: https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/HAB1907.pdf

The National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable cause of the Culver City, California, rear-end crash was the Tesla driver’s lack of response to the stationary fire truck in his travel lane, due to inattention and overreliance on the vehicle’s advanced driver assistance system; the Tesla’s Autopilot design, which permitted the driver to disengage from the driving task; and the driver’s use of the system in ways inconsistent with guidance and warnings from the manufacturer.
​
Source_2: https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NR20190904.aspx

WASHINGTON (Sept. 4, 2019) — A driver’s inattention, overreliance on his car’s advanced driver assistance system, and use of the system inconsistent with manufacturer guidance, coupled with the system permitting driver disengagement from the driving task, led to the Jan. 22, 2018, crash in Culver City, California, according to a National Transportation Safety Board brief issued Wednesday.​

Absent are accidents that were avoided by AutoPilot. Only a crash can be analyzed.

Source_2: https://regmedia.co.uk/2019/09/04/tesla_truck_crash_culver_city.pdf

Driver interview transcript.

Bob Wilson
 
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We've upgraded to firmware V10: 2019.32.11.1 this morning. Now to restart regression testing:
handy_010.jpg


Bob Wilson
 
Here is the curved, dashed lane lines entering an intersection from the left triggers a strong, right-turn response:



In this next clip, there are two cars in front. The lead car (unseen) brakes to take a sharp left turn. My lead car brakes and begins to drift to right lane. But AutoPilot brakes hard (surprise but reasonable) but fails to accelerate to resume original following distance to lead vehicle.



You can get a rough idea of distance by watching the width of the leading vehicle change.


Bob Wilson
 
Due to my hubris, I had an Autopilot accident when 'auto-steer' failed to come on after a double-tap. TACC worked but I didn't notice the blue lines were gone so I let the car drive over a curb. No visible body damage and the air bags did not deploy but the passenger side, wheel rims and tires, will have to be replaced. The tires are still holding air but the car remains parked until repaired.

Tesla advised:

Thank you for contacting Tesla in regards to your tires.

So we recommend you find a local tire shop to repair this. There is a foam insert on the inside of the tires that they need to cut out in order to patch your tires.

Please do this at your convenience.

Best regards​

I don't think they understood my original note. Regardless, I have a plan:
  1. Photos to get estimates at Costco and Firestone - discuss lead times and their ability and willingness to do Model 3 alignment.
  2. Estimate from Tire Rack for wheels and tires. Replace tires as I have the jack adapters.
The Tesla dash cam stopped recording "Recent" videos about an hour or so before hitting the curb. So losing 'auto-steer' restart in Autopilot may be related. However, I turned on "Fred" a couple of days earlier to mute some of the alarms and that may also have contributed.

I have a legacy dash cam set up in the cabin to record video; audio; GPS metrics, and; 3-axis acceleration. Here is the narrative under the public YouTube:

Video recorded at 2 frames/second so playback is hurried. Adjust playback speed to slow; "SPACE" halts; "," backup one frame, and "." forwards one frame. Use embedded time stamps:

23:52:29 (hh:mm:ss) - distant car hits brake lights at green traffic light
23:52:33 - hit brakes to slow approach which turns off Autopilot
23:52:42 - lead car turns so reach up to 'double-tap' back into Autopilot
23:52:49 - I failed to notice a Auto-steer down, traffic aware cruise control is OK
23:52:51 - "Fred" on, I failed to notice close approach to curb
23:53:00 - Car steered to curb where bad things happened
23:53:01 - Significant impact, no air bags but rim and likely tire damage

The rest are my lame attempts to figure out what broke and drive home.​

Given moderator sensitivity about some subjects, I recommend Google my YouTube channel to see the video.

Bob Wilson
 
Now let me get this straight. Did you pay for Autopilot or is Tesla paying you to test it??
 
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