WadeTyhon, you appear to have your head screwed on straight, so I hesitate to disagree with you, especially when you've obviously looked deeply into the issue and can quote some figures, which I can't.
However, I think it's possible -- again, not saying you're wrong, but an alternative possibility -- that Tesla will reduce the U.S. sales of the MS and MX in order to delay passing the 200,000 milestone. Tesla could simply choose to send more of its MS and MX production to Canada and overseas, while continuing to push out as many TM3 units to U.S. buyers as it possibly can. Tesla already voluntarily (at least according to what the company claims) reduced MS/MX production by 10% in the latter half of last year, in order to reassign some engineers and workers to maximize the effort to ramp up TM3 production. Would it be that big a surprise if they chose to reduce domestic MS/MX sales even more this year, by sending a lopsided number to Canada, and to overseas markets?
Tesla could even, in theory, send some TM3 units to Canada and overseas. However, I don't think they'll do that before passing the 200,000 milestone, as it would violate the priority they have advertised for who on the reservation list gets served first. They have pretty clearly said that U.S. customers get served first. Of course, there's no law that says they can't change their minds, but that would generate some pretty strong negative publicity for them, so I don't think they will.
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We don't know the exact number of current sales, but it is probably somewhere between 165k and 170k. Inside EVs estimates through this January are 163k. Other sources think the number is higher. So I'll meet in the middle and say Tesla has an available 35,000 sales before they hit 200,000 in the US.
Tesla has said that they will be producing 2500/week by the end of this quarter. And 5000/week by the end of next quarter.
In order to have any chance of delaying the threshold until Q3, I have to assume some fairly pessimistic US sales numbers for the next 5 months. Production might be higher than the following but these are just example numbers in order to hit Q3 rebate trigger:
1000/week
Feb 2018: 4000
1125/week
March 2018: 4500
1500/week
April 2018: 6000
1500/week
May 2018: 7000
2,000/week
June 2018: 8,000
Total Model 3 sales for Feb-June 2018: 29,500
As you can see, these numbers I've thrown out there are less than half production targets. Roughly 2,000/week
production in May assuming the current 3-5 weeks from configure to delivery continues. If the "delay until Q3" theory holds true, production would then rise quickly in June for delivery in July.
There are basically 2 ways they could hit these numbers:
- Production continues to be much lower than they are shooting for.
- A significant portion of Model 3 production is sent into Canada and other markets starting in Q2.
Of course, even at the relatively low production numbers above, they would still hit ~30,000 units. So:
- Canadian/European sales of the Model 3 would need to begin
very soon, and would need to soak up 40-50% of deliveries. Canadian deliveries on their own wouldn't offset sales enough. And S/X deliveries in the US would need to drop by at least 40%. Canadian delivery estimates have indeed moved up to Mid-2018. But only for the LR version I believe. And that isn't soon enough to really help.
- Assuming all Model 3 deliveries are for the US only, Model S and X would basically need to ship less than 6,000 units combined in the US over 5 months. It's possible, but that would be off about 70% from last year.
You're right that it is technically possible.
If they're going to do it, they need to actually announce they are doing so. I hope they do for the sake of myself and others wanting the Short Range Model 3. But that would be 5 months of much lower deliveries for S, X and 3 in the US than expected. I'm not sure it's the right move for Tesla financially or PR wise.
They're kind of in between a rock and hard place here for US deliveries. Do they further delay production? Stop fulfilling Model S/X orders? Start to ship the high end model 3 overseas? No matter the tactic, they're gonna piss off someone, somewhere lol. They want to avoid pissing off their current customers and those looking to max out the vehicle with options. Better to piss off those buying the less profitable, lower end model. Since that model was priced to be competitive even without tax breaks anyways.
They also probably hope they'll convince some future SR owners to go for the LR model. LR with the full tax rebate wouldn't be much more than the SR without the tax rebate.
They probably mean the same thing in this case. Still, the fact that he was so pleasant about it and not pushy at all made the interaction feel more like he was trying to get the right car for us instead of pushing us into a car we can't afford. Big difference from the experience of a usual car dealer!
