Model 3 production ramping up

  • Thread starter Thread starter Rex B
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Sorry I'm late to this party. In my research for the "machine gun belt" bandolier assembly process for the Model 3 packs that George and I wrote about a while back, an insider at the GF clarified that Tesla only has one automated line set up for assembling the cells & cooling tubes into bandoliers and then assembling the bandoliers into modules.

Elsewhere (where, I can't remember) I recall that the cell/cooling tube assembly process took 10 minutes per bandolier manually and only 10 seconds via automation. With that data, we can estimate how many packs per hour Tesla can produce with one automated line (when operating at 100% efficiency)

7 bandoliers per module x 4 modules per pack = 28 modules x 10 seconds/bandolier = 280 seconds per pack = 4.667 minutes/pack = 12.8 packs per hour
Assume two 8-hr shifts per day & 6 days per week. 12.8 packs/hr x 8 hrs x 2 shifts x 6 days = 1,228 packs/week.
Assume 80% efficiency (15% machine down time plus 5% scrap rate). 1,228 x 0.8 = 983 packs/week

So if the information about the cycle time is true and that there is currently one line working, then Tesla can only build about 1,000 packs per week until they duplicate the 1st line and get it commissioned. That gibes with the current estimated burst production rate. The inside source said the space was set up for 4 lines at full capacity. With 4 lines, Tesla could build about 4,000 packs per week and therefore build 4000 Model 3's per week. The ramp-up beyond 1,000 will require a) bringing on new lines and b) getting them properly commissioned. Since they hopefully learned a lot from the first line's problems, the 2nd (and 3rd and 4th) lines should be able to assembled, commissioned, and producing much quicker than the 1st.

Why did I assume just two shifts (no graveyard shift) and why not 7 days per week? Cleanup and maintenance. The cleanliness required to maintain the tolerances of this fine assembly is very high. A thorough cleaning has to be done daily. And service, calibration, etc required on these automated precision systems are horrendous. (If you watch videos of any modern automated assembly line, you'll see that you could probably eat right off the floor). Frequently one full day each week (like Sunday) is reserved for handling the bigger maintenance issues that can only be done when all lines are down. And then there are the multi-day shut-downs, usually over holiday breaks and then a 1-2 week summer shutdown for serious maintenance and/or retooling.
 
Many of us in the greater Phoenix area are getting their CONFIG but not in an email. We have logged in to see if our dates have changed and there is the message ready to config. Then after doing the config it's 30 days or less to delivery. (as long as you want the long range battery, black interior and no AWD etc). I'm all set I want any options they allow and the earliest delivery.
 
7% of the reservation holders are current Tesla owners. Not many owners are configuring this version. The price is too close to the Model S.

Not many non-owners will select this option as it would be over their budget.

I would love to see the non premium version and TACC decoupled from autopilot (wishful thinking).
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Source/basis for this data? Is it current?
Click to expand...
Yes, the data is from Tesla, quarterly earning call.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/model-3-delivery-estimator

Tesla is almost finished with owners in the US. Notice how fast Tesla went through the employee and owners from California and East Coast. Not many are biting on the most profitable version.
$9000 for 90 miles of extra range.
Premium option for $5000
EAP $5000
FSD $3000
All those options are Hugh profits for Tesla. Tesla will need to produce 5000/week by July or will need to do another round of cash raising.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/highest-production-vin-in-the-wild.96812/page-51
 
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JyChevyVolt said:
Yes, the data is from Tesla, quarterly earning call.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/model-3-delivery-estimator
Click to expand...
Sorry, all I see in your link is another forum comment, just like yours. Anything more definitive?
Which specific earnings call are you referring to? TIA.

From the link:
"Bluesday Afternoon | June 23, 2017
@Iwantmy3, Owner reservations represent approximately 7% of Model 3 reservations. Not sure where you came up with 40%. The vast majority are not owners."

Not many are biting..
Click to expand...
See the overview sheet below. One third of owners already took delivery. Only 30% are deferring, mainly for AWD or different interiors, IIRC.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BWscIZyLsh42IHcj1AJNfEF-vzj-vRo-3skcCXgO_Nc/edit#gid=0

Saw this SA blogpost also. Interesting if true.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/24476483-valueseeker/5102056-just-many-model-3-reservations-really
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
Sorry, all I see in your link is another forum comment, just like yours. Anything more definitive?
Which specific earnings call are you referring to? TIA.

From the link:
"Bluesday Afternoon | June 23, 2017
@Iwantmy3, Owner reservations represent approximately 7% of Model 3 reservations. Not sure where you came up with 40%. The vast majority are not owners."


See the overview sheet below. One third of owners already took delivery. Only 30% are deferring, mainly for AWD or different interiors, IIRC.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BWscIZyLsh42IHcj1AJNfEF-vzj-vRo-3skcCXgO_Nc/edit#gid=0

Saw this SA blogpost also. Interesting if true.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/24476483-valueseeker/5102056-just-many-model-3-reservations-really
Click to expand...
The call is on YouTube. You can Google it.
 
JyChevyVolt said:
The call is on YouTube. You can Google it.
Click to expand...

You're talking about one of the Tesla quarterly earnings conference calls with investors? I think Seeking Alpha has transcripts of all those. What was the date?

(Ordinarily I don't recommend visiting Seeking Alpha, since it's a magnet for Tesla hater posts. But it does have its uses!)
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
You're talking about one of the Tesla quarterly earnings conference calls with investors? I think Seeking Alpha has transcripts of all those. What was the date?

(Ordinarily I don't recommend visiting Seeking Alpha, since it's a magnet for Tesla hater posts. But it does have its uses!)
Click to expand...
Normally, I give out the link but someone named teslainvestors should know the answer.

Why would anyone go into battle without knowledge is mind-blowing.
 
You DID post a link, which was useless.
I'll accept your apology if you fix the tense error in your sentence "7% of the reservation holders are current Tesla owners."
 
Our model 3 is only 24 days away and counting down. Were going to pick it up at the factory in California and drive it home to the Phoenix area. I also hope to tour the factory.
 
jim said:
Our model 3 is only 24 days away and counting down. Were going to pick it up at the factory in California and drive it home to the Phoenix area. I also hope to tour the factory.
Click to expand...

Please give us a report when or after that happens! ...or better yet, several.
 
jim said:
Our model 3 is only 24 days away and counting down. Were going to pick it up at the factory in California and drive it home to the Phoenix area. I also hope to tour the factory.
Click to expand...

Not to be too demanding, buuuut... ;)

Full video walkthrough of the car and infotainment system! I also wanna know how well you think the keycard and phone app work.

This will be our first Tesla and we would be getting the short range version so it will be a while before my wife and I are allowed to buy.
 
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