Would you buy an SE at current prices without the $7500 credit?

  • Thread starter Thread starter polyphonic
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Would you buy an SE at current prices without the $7500 credit?

  • Yes (I have additional state incentives)

    Votes: 8 10.0%

  • Yes (I do not have additional state incentives)

    Votes: 26 32.5%

  • No

    Votes: 46 57.5%
  • Total voters
    80
Alf_W said:
I love the concept, but I'm not convinced there will be a robust marketplace for replacement or aftermarket batteries for the SE in ten years. Especially if sales are limited (or cut off after IRA), there may not be enough business incentive to create many drop-in options. We will see!
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Drop in, no but aftermarket companies already exist that you could pay to do the upgrade. Even today I bet I could get 10kWh more in the SE
 
Alf_W said:
Especially if sales are limited (or cut off after IRA), there may not be enough business incentive to create many drop-in options.
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I would hope that those of us who think that electric cars now are going to help our grandchildren be able to breathe outnumber those of you who think that spending fewer sheckles today is worth a bleak future.
 
SCelectric15 said:
That's the question we're dealing with now, we reserved an ID-4 about a month before the MINI and we only reserved the MINI because it was a shorter wait time. Now without the tax credit for either the ID-4 or MINI, because both are to be manufactured overseas, we're doubly screwed. We'll we reserved the '23 ID-4 as it should qualify for some tax credit or rebate.

Rather disappointed with MINI, neither the dealer or MINI reached out to us and when I contacted the dealer early last week they had heard nothing from MINI, I had previously told them I wanted to put more down and sign a contract to purchase but since we're in CA they couldn't do it with the car on the lot. VW was more communicative and did ask, where possible, for the dealers to sign a binding contract.
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Same here. Pinged MINI on social media and got a boilerplate response.
 
revorg said:
I would hope that those of us who think that electric cars now are going to help our grandchildren be able to breathe outnumber those of you who think that spending fewer sheckles today is worth a bleak future.
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At the same time, buying a car that you throw away after 10 years (versus the more typical 15-20 for an ICEV) isn’t helping our grandkids either. So aftermarket battery options is a valid concern.


Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
 
The average ICE car lifespan is 12 years or 200,000 miles. The 15-20 year thing is a myth.
Yes you will see 20 year old vehicles on the road, but no many.
If you can identify the age of a car on sight take a look and see how many you see over about 15 years old. It’s not many given how many millions were produced each year.
 
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AndysComputer said:
The average ICE car lifespan is 12 years or 200,000 miles. The 15-20 year thing is a myth.
Yes you will see 20 year old vehicles on the road, but no many.
If you can identify the age of a car on sight take a look and see how many you see over about 15 years old. It’s not many given how many millions were produced each year.
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Agree. Contributing to lifespan, could be that some of the shorter life cars are probably not so good, and the longer life cars are probably great cars, loved by their owners. I'll bet the MINI SE has the potential to be a longer lived car that beats the averages.
 
JB Straubel (Tesla, Redwood) said batteries will last “about 15 years.” At that point the metals can be recycled. The motors and inverter will likely last longer.

Straubel left Tesla to focus on battery recycling. I think EVs are far more sustainable than ICEV.

There’s nothing more disposable than a German luxury ICE vehicle, imo.
 
polyphonic said:
JB Straubel (Tesla, Redwood) said batteries will last “about 15 years.” At that point the metals can be recycled. The motors and inverter will likely last longer.

Straubel left Tesla to focus on battery recycling. I think EVs are far more sustainable than ICEV.

There’s nothing more disposable than a German luxury ICE vehicle, imo.
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Battery recycling is only economically viable for nickel and cobalt based batteries such as NCA or NCM. LFP recycling is an entirely different problem, but at least it's abundant!
 
AndysComputer said:
The average ICE car lifespan is 12 years or 200,000 miles. The 15-20 year thing is a myth.
Yes you will see 20 year old vehicles on the road, but no many.
If you can identify the age of a car on sight take a look and see how many you see over about 15 years old. It’s not many given how many millions were produced each year.
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The average AGE of cars on the road today in the US is 12.2 years according to S&P global mobility reports. That means for every new car sold, there is, on average, a car that is 24.4 years old. No, averages don’t work that way of course. But the point is that the lifespan of a car MUST be much higher than 12 years. I can’t find a stat on average lifespan (maybe someone more practiced in google-fu can) but 15-20 years seems reasonable and jives with my own experience.


Sent from my iPhone using Inside EVs
 
revorg said:
I question your guess at how long people keep cars. Are you saying that the SE will only last 10 years? Or that you will tire of it after 10 years?
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My comment isn’t not related to how long I, or anyone else keeps a car. If I keep a car for 20 years but 10 years in someone else buys a new car, it is the same net as if I sell the car after 10 years, buy a new car, and the buyer keeps my old car another 10. All that matters is how long the car lasts.

Nor am I making any predictions on the lifespan of my SE. The discussion was regarding putting new batteries into an old car to give it new life. You said that you want to leave a better world for your grandkids. Excellent, so do I! So which is better - two EVs that each last 10 years or a single ICEV that lasts 20? It’s not a cut and dry answer.


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GetOffYourGas said:
So which is better - two EVs that each last 10 years or a single ICEV that lasts 20?
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What evidence is there a non-first generation EV only lasts 10 years? First-gen EVs (Leaf, Spark, maybe Fiat?) tended to have crappy battery management, but they're still on the road albeit with reduced range. The Tesla Model S is just now getting to the 10-year mark, and there hasn't been massive failures of that model.

This reminds me of when CDs first came out, there was all kind of FUD about how they'd only last a few years before bit decay got to them. The first CD I ever bought was in 1986, a used copy of Dire Straits' Brothers in Arms. It still works fine over 30 years later.
 
Puppethead said:
This reminds me of when CDs first came out, there was all kind of FUD about how they'd only last a few years before bit decay got to them. The first CD I ever bought was in 1986, a used copy of Dire Straits' Brothers in Arms. It still works fine over 30 years later.
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Your CD is uncensored too, unlike the digital version.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
The average AGE of cars on the road today in the US is 12.2 years according to S&P global mobility reports. That means for every new car sold, there is, on average, a car that is 24.4 years old. No, averages don’t work that way of course
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Yeah that is very much NOT what the 12 year average means, but you are correct that the average age is 12 years not lifespan.
I also struggled to find up to date info, the best I found so far is 8-10 years old.
In 2012:
Less than 10% of the fleet was 21+ years old.
42% were between 11-20 years old.
32% were 6-10 years old.
15% were 5 years or less.

The range of 11-20 is too wide to be useful imho and I naturally expect the bulk of that 42% would be on the lower end. After all if 32% are 6-10 years old I suspect that for reasons of curve that it’s probably 27% in the 11-15 year range and that leaves about 15% soldiering on in the 16-20 range.

So 1 in 4 cars driving around might be older than 15 years, and that falls off to 1 in 10 being over 20 years old. At least in 2012.

Now, I expect the figure for overall longevity to have improved as despite what people think about them “not making them like they used to” cars are lasting longer.

However there are two things skewing that.
1. We have had an increase in market share of trucks and traditional SUVs which tend to last longer
2. But, and this is a big one, we have had a downsizing of engines putting them under more strain with an increase in weight of vehicles, plus an increase in complexity with turbocharging and other emissions and efficiency equipment. This may offset the overall trend of engines lasting longer as they do require more expensive repairs…

Source:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-3/americans-aging-autos.htm
 
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Puppethead said:
This reminds me of when CDs first came out, there was all kind of FUD about how they'd only last a few years before bit decay got to them. The first CD I ever bought was in 1986, a used copy of Dire Straits' Brothers in Arms. It still works fine over 30 years later.
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Lucky you! I got my first CD player in 1987 and 1 in 4 of my oldest CDs actually have suffered from bit rot. You could see through parts of them, it looked like rust or something. And I was always careful with them. Later ones seems fine though.
 
One point to note is that in 12+ years, an ICE car has most probably had major services to the engine. Probably several thousand dollars worth of maintenance. I like to think of the engine being comparable to the battery in EVs. They are parts which need maintenance. The EV motor, and ICE fuel tank are pretty much for the life of the car. Think of it another way - how many ICE cars don't need any engine maintenance (oil change, spark plugs, timing belt, rings, pistons etc) in 10 years? An EV is near maintenance free for the motor/battery combination for 10 years. You then update the battery and get another 10 years. There are first gen leafs which are over 10 years old with new batteries. They will probably last another 10 years or more. This is with the worst battery maintenance (air cooled) of any modern EV. I think EVs will in fact have a much longer lifespan. They will be removed from circulation when the tech becomes outdated (eg. self driving etc), not that the car wears out. Look for reports of Teslas clocking over 1 million km (or even miles). In an ICE car, that would be unusual - not unheard of, just unusual. At 20,000 km a year, that represents 50 years of motoring. They have had a (or maybe more than one) battery replacement, but are still going strong.
 
vader said:
At 20,000 km a year, that represents 50 years of motoring. They have had a (or maybe more than one) battery replacement, but are still going strong.
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Don't forget that batteries age with time in addition to use. A battery sitting around doing 0 miles a year would still age significantly over 10+ years
 
Puppethead said:
What evidence is there a non-first generation EV only lasts 10 years? First-gen EVs (Leaf, Spark, maybe Fiat?) tended to have crappy battery management, but they're still on the road albeit with reduced range. The Tesla Model S is just now getting to the 10-year mark, and there hasn't been massive failures of that model.

This reminds me of when CDs first came out, there was all kind of FUD about how they'd only last a few years before bit decay got to them. The first CD I ever bought was in 1986, a used copy of Dire Straits' Brothers in Arms. It still works fine over 30 years later.
Click to expand...
I think that was the first CD I bought in 85 along with the last piece of vinyl I bought new Twisted Sister Come Out and Play (I saw them and Zebra live many times before either band was signed).
 
vader said:
One point to note is that in 12+ years, an ICE car has most probably had major services to the engine. Probably several thousand dollars worth of maintenance.
Click to expand...
I remember Car Talk pondering the question of how many parts of a car can be replaced before it's not the same car, which is the Paradox of Theseus' Ship.

 
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