Which plug-in hybrid will wear the 2018 sales crown?
- Thread starter Domenick
- Start date
- Replies 16
- Views 3K
-
- Tags
- phev sales
Pushmi-Pullyu
Well-Known Member
No love for the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV? 
I'm sure of one thing: It won't be the Karma Revero!
I've been surprised at the significantly lower than anticipated sales of the Prius Prime, especially given that in some areas it's actually priced lower than other Prius models. From recent comments, apparently the Prime's acceleration is quite anemic, and reviews say the car feels sluggish and unresponsive, so that may be the main reason for lackluster sales.
Demand seems to be limited for the Volt as well as the Prius Prime. For other PHEVs, it seems that limited production is keeping sales down. Several of those on the list have the potential for outselling the Volt and the Prius Prime... but only if the auto makers choose to ship that many to the USA. In particular, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is outselling other PEVs in some international markets. But will Mitshbishi ship enough Outlanders here to the USA to support that level of sales? My guess is "No".
I'm going tochicken out play it safe here and not make a prediction. My last prediction re sales was that the Tesla Model 3 would have at least 20,000 deliveries in 2017... and look what happened there! 
I'm sure of one thing: It won't be the Karma Revero!
I've been surprised at the significantly lower than anticipated sales of the Prius Prime, especially given that in some areas it's actually priced lower than other Prius models. From recent comments, apparently the Prime's acceleration is quite anemic, and reviews say the car feels sluggish and unresponsive, so that may be the main reason for lackluster sales.
Demand seems to be limited for the Volt as well as the Prius Prime. For other PHEVs, it seems that limited production is keeping sales down. Several of those on the list have the potential for outselling the Volt and the Prius Prime... but only if the auto makers choose to ship that many to the USA. In particular, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is outselling other PEVs in some international markets. But will Mitshbishi ship enough Outlanders here to the USA to support that level of sales? My guess is "No".
I'm going to
JyChevyVolt
Active Member
GM will shutdown plant and stop producing the Volt next year.
1. Prime
2. Clarity
3. Pacifica
4. Ioniq/Kia
5. Outlander
6. Volt
1. Prime
2. Clarity
3. Pacifica
4. Ioniq/Kia
5. Outlander
6. Volt
Owner of a BMW i3-REx, it has plenty of acceleration but I coded for the middle power range. At the highest power range the car is too fidgety These micro accelerations and decelerations waste energy and reduce EV range. The same is true with our Prius Prime, so I use the middle power setting. Acceleration played no part in our purchase requirements ... we're too frugal to care.
The Prius Prime has an excellent purchase price and outstanding efficiency. So I think it still has long sales legs. Not listed, end of lease BMW i3-REx are also in the same price range. And we own one of each.
Bob Wilson
The Prius Prime has an excellent purchase price and outstanding efficiency. So I think it still has long sales legs. Not listed, end of lease BMW i3-REx are also in the same price range. And we own one of each.
Bob Wilson
JyChevyVolt
Active Member
BMW is having a blowout lease deal in California. We should see good numbers for January.
Domenick
Well-Known Member
No love for the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV?
I knew I missed one! Actually, two. I should have added the Kia Niro also.
Domenick
Well-Known Member
As far as I know, Volt will be in production until after 2020. https://insideevs.com/report-gm-considers-ending-chevrolet-volt-in-favor-of-plug-in-crossover/
WadeTyhon
Well-Known Member
Based on what? lol XD It is currently still a top 5 selling plug-in. It will finish it’s current generation.
If GM kills it, I would expect it to go away in 2021 or 2022.
Pushmi-Pullyu
Well-Known Member
I was kidding! I can probably find some other even lower-selling PHEVs (like the BMW i8), but your survey asked for which one we think is going to sell the best. I expect Hyundai to ramp up production of the Ioniq models, for which demand was far greater than Hyundai expected; but I certainly don't expect them to ship enough units to the USA to challenge the sales leaders!
Oh, wait... your survey doesn't specify U.S.-only sales. My bad!
Domenick
Well-Known Member
Apparently I need to work on my poll-making skills.
JyChevyVolt
Active Member
I estimate sub 10,000 sales next year for the Volt forcing GM to kill the Volt earlier than anticipated.
WadeTyhon
Well-Known Member
I agree demand will probably be down, but sub-10,000 is so unlikely that I’d say it is impossible.
2019 or 2020 maybe... by then GM will have launched multiple new BEVs. And tax rebates will be gone. I still think 2019 will be above 15,000.
But 2018 will remain above 15,000 for sure. Probably repeat the ~20,000 of this year.
This is the last year for full tax credits on GM plug-ins after all. That should give a little boost to both the Volt and Bolt for 2018.
Last edited:
Cypress
Active Member
GM will hit the phaseout period for the US federal rebate this year. Sedan sales have been sluggish and declining. Gas is still cheap and the orange traitor is opening up new gas exploration, so that’s not likely to change. It’s not looking great for small PHEVs unless mfgs drastically cut prices. GM may be able to keep sales up by dropping the price closer to $20k-$25k after the incentives run out.
WadeTyhon
Well-Known Member
Yeah, Volt sales will be down, but there is no reason to think they will be under 10,000. 17k-20k seems more likely to me.
GM will most likely hit 200,000 in very late Q2 or early Q3. I think they will intentionally push it to Q3.
It looks like the 2018 MY Bolt will only be for a few months. Then they will briefly shut down/slow production before building the 2019 Bolt.
It would be good to do this at the end of Q2, then have as many 2019s on dealer lots as possible right at the start of Q3.
If so, they will be able to finish 2018 with the full credit available. And hopefully they can launch one of their new BEVs by Q4 to take advantage of it.
JyChevyVolt
Active Member
It's depends on how much cash on the hood GM throws into the Volt.
GM's got serious problem in California when the inferior Prime is outselling the Volt. It's not the price because the Volt is cheaper to lease than the Prime.
GM's got serious problem in California when the inferior Prime is outselling the Volt. It's not the price because the Volt is cheaper to lease than the Prime.