What to consider when buying a PHEV

[David A]

I'm on my phone and not my computer so I'll try to keep this short (for me anyway ).

The Clarity does have a 60/40 fold-down seat and trunk pass through. The space in that pass through is a little tight IMO, but I've thought that of every sedan I've had. Don't rule it out because you don't think it has a useful pass through, check it out at the dealer and decide for yourself.

It is true that a battery replacement will be pretty expensive. With the 17 ish KWh battery on my Clarity, I'm guessing a $8-10k replacement cost. However, quite a few electric cars and hybrids go 150-200k miles without needing a battery change. At that rate I do not expect the likelihood of me needing a new battery early to be any greater then my chances of needing a transmission or engine on a regular car ( also extremely expensive car parts).

A few of the plugins out there do require the engine for the heat to turn on, at least the Hyundai and the Kia. I don't know if any current ones off hand that need the gas engine for the air conditioner.

Good post...however...IMHO...there is going to be several boat loads of PHEV's and BEV hit the used car market in 3-4 years...Tesla cars will be cheap...majority of folks will dump these cars for the very reason your post makes sense...cost of battery replacement plus other associated age related issues. I'm confident battery cost will come down but not too many folks are going to pay the freight in today's throw-away society.

I look at the PHEV as a transitional vehicle to a full BEV in 5 years or so. I do not anticipate the Clarity being worth much at that time due to the dumping of 5 year old EV's et.al. My question is...whats going to become of all these used cars? I believe its going to be one heck of a mess.

Just my two cents.

 

[marshall]

I think there are plenty for folks that will be looking for a used PHEV or EV. What Honda has done right is to make the gas engine and electric motor interaction simple and should be very robust. If the price is right for a used Bolt coming off lease, I'll probably buy one.

The current battery warranties are at least 8 years, 100,000 miles for non-Carb states and 10 years, 150,000 miles for Carb states for a PHEV. The main issue for the traction battery capacity loss due to age and number of charges. A bigger battery takes care of that issue.

The EVs in particular, should be very reliable and with their bigger battery are going to make a very good used car.

Any pricing pressure is going to come from lower cost batteries and driving assist features in the newer vehicles.

Leaf stats: http://myevstats.com/index.php?sVIN=006977&lType=1
Chevy Volt and Bolt stats: https://www.voltstats.net/

 

[Yanni]

So the question that comes into play for the analysis is the time frame. If you are like me who wants to run cars to the ground before I get a new one (just donated out my 2006 Sentra), then it may be a consideration. If you believe that you are looking for the Total Cost of Ownership for only 5 years, and the battery warranty is say 7 years, then eliminate it as a criteria. Not all criteria apply to all situations and people may have different views on the same criteria. But you make a good point on having a time frame for the analysis.

That makes sense. We usually hang onto our cars until they're ready for the scrap heap. We drive them. Then the kids drive them. then they may stick around for a guest car (we get a lot of guests!) and then at some point they collapse.

That being said, this is a totally different kind of car so we may not have that same behavior, so if I held onto it for, say, 5 years and then was going to sell it, wouldn't the new buyer want a deep discount since in 2+ years they'd be looking at a $6K - $10K battery replacement fee? At least that's how I'd be looking at it...

I realize that I'm figuring that at/around the end of the warranty the battery will be degrading to the point that it's no longer very useful. Especially with some of the cars available today with only high-20 electric-only miles available. With a 20% reduction in chargeability (or whatever it's called!) it brings you down to at/under 20 miles. I def wouldn't want to hold onto that car....

 

[Yanni]

You bring up another point, on location of usage. Based on location, some criteria may or may not apply or there may be new criteria based on location. One additional change based on location is the cost of charging, some utilities have discounts or incentives for EV charging. So I have added operational costs to the Total cost of ownership as they will change. As you point out, warranties change based on location.

Right. In my case we can charge for free at home due to our excess solar generation. Right now without a plug in car, it's money going down the drain, essentially, as we don't get the same value when we sell our power back to the power company at the end of each year.

 

[Yanni]

If you live in a CARB state, then many of your hybrid and emission parts are covered with a longer warranty. For example, the battery is warranted for 10 years or 150,000 miles. Other hybrid parts are covered for 15 years or 150,000 miles.

I don't even know what a CARB state is, or if I'm in one, or how that affects me. Hello Google...

 

[bwilson4web]

I look at the PHEV as a transitional vehicle to a full BEV in 5 years or so. . . . due to the dumping of 5 year old EV's et.al. My question is...whats going to become of all these used cars? I believe its going to be one heck of a mess.

Yes and no:

• CCS charging too expensive - my recent trip to Nashville using CCS chargers cost $26 for just over 140 miles,~$0.19 per mile and CHAdeMO provides no price relief. Worse is the charging delays and routes mapped by chargers, 140 miles, not the direct, 111 miles. This makes a pure BEV an expensive choice for cross country travel and the USA is a big place.
• Hybrids and PHEV have affordable, long legs, ~$0.06 per mile. They also work in areas with little or no CCS or CHAdeMO chargers.

I see hybrids and PHEVs as having a lot longer life in the 'fly over' areas, new drivers, and lower income. Used, they are affordable yet the fuel savings makes them a good buy for the cost sensitive.

Except for SuperCharger compatible Teslas, BEVs are really a local option like around a school or university. They make a perfect first car for teenagers and university students. Limited range, CHEAP, and affordable to operate. Trip planning leads to a useful skill (or tow.)

Bob Wilson

 

[interestedinEV]

That makes sense. We usually hang onto our cars until they're ready for the scrap heap. We drive them. Then the kids drive them. then they may stick around for a guest car (we get a lot of guests!) and then at some point they collapse.

That being said, this is a totally different kind of car so we may not have that same behavior, so if I held onto it for, say, 5 years and then was going to sell it, wouldn't the new buyer want a deep discount since in 2+ years they'd be looking at a $6K - $10K battery replacement fee? At least that's how I'd be looking at it...

I realize that I'm figuring that at/around the end of the warranty the battery will be degrading to the point that it's no longer very useful. Especially with some of the cars available today with only high-20 electric-only miles available. With a 20% reduction in chargeability (or whatever it's called!) it brings you down to at/under 20 miles. I def wouldn't want to hold onto that car....

There is very limited information on resale value for EV as you do not have so many on the market. Tesla has directly intervened and managed to stabilize the used car prices. Now if Tesla is going to be selling about 20-25,000 cars a month on a sustained basis, then over a period of time, values of used EV's will come down as there will be limited amount of intervention that Tesla can directly do. As technology changes, EV cars with older technologies will depreciate faster. As there are more choices, there will be less brand loyalty and this could also depress prices as no one would want to pay a premium for a used EV as they do for a Tesla today. I would say that it is a safe assumption that for most EV's we can assume the resale value will be low due to the need to replace the battery. In other words, there are a lot of unknowns, but it will be safe for your analysis to assume that EV's will not be worth much in about 8-10 years time. Reality may be totally different.

 

[marshall]

There is very limited information on resale value for EV as you do not have so many on the market. Tesla has directly intervened and managed to stabilize the used car prices. Now if Tesla is going to be selling about 20-25,000 cars a month on a sustained basis, then over a period of time, values of used EV's will come down as there will be limited amount of intervention that Tesla can directly do. As technology changes, EV cars with older technologies will depreciate faster. As there are more choices, there will be less brand loyalty and this could also depress prices as no one would want to pay a premium for a used EV as they do for a Tesla today. I would say that it is a safe assumption that for most EV's we can assume the resale value will be low due to the need to replace the battery. In other words, there are a lot of unknowns, but it will be safe for your analysis to assume that EV's will not be worth much in about 8-10 years time. Reality may be totally different.

I think the number of cars leased has had a big effect on the resale value, along with government rebate, tax credits and the unknowns about the battery.

GM and Nissan are not helping things by not providing information about the traction battery health over time.

Personally, I think the battery fear is a bit overblown, especially with the larger batteries in the new EVs. However, we still haven't reached the 10 to 15 year longevity for any PHEV or EV so battery health is still an unknown for longer periods of time.

I do believe the PHEVs will go the distance, simply because they can operate as a regular hybrid. Plus, if you live in a CARB state, then with the longer warranty you should have no worries about expensive hybrid parts.

 

[Dana Mitchell]

My wife and I have two kids and rear facing seats actually take up more room and would not fit in the Volt. If they were facing forward in the Volt their heads would be at the rear glass, plus the space in the hatch leaves a little to be desired. I loved my 2012 Volt, but once we had the second kid I had to sell. I was hoping for something new to come out and one day looking at a Odyssey for my wife I saw the Clarity. No information was really out but looking at the performance stats and trusting Hondas engineering I took the chance and I can say that I'm so happy I did. With the exception of a couple quirks this car is perfect. I just rolled 10k miles today and to date I have used 11 gallons of gas. Of all the PHEVs I've driven it has the best ride quality. I would not hesitate to take it on a long trip even with the smaller fuel tank because it does get great fuel economy. A couple extra MPG doesn't matter if you only drive 450 miles on gas out of 10,000. If you want a real mid-size sedan, check it out.... I'd almost consider it full size from the actual room and great rear leg room. My only knock is that they don't give you all the data that you get in the Chevys.

 

[Ben Washburn]

To me, if I were to pick just one thing I think it would be to identify your primary usage case and compare that to the all-electric range. Because to me, when you buy a PHEV I think what you're trying to buy is an electric car with the ability to go farther if/when you need to.

If you need maximum electric range then pretty much you have the Volt and the Clarity at the top end, and then you're probably deciding between a smaller hatchback vs a sedan. If your commute is less than 15 miles each way then that brings a whole lot of other options to the table.

So at least in the way my pachinko ball fell the most important thing to me was maximum electric range, which narrowed the choices down to those two. Subsequent bounces of the ball ended up with it in the Clarity slot.

But if you're going to hold out to the end of the credit period you'll be into the 2020 model year and you may have lots more choices by then, but of course you won't be getting end of year discounts on 2019 models.

But in a funny quirk, you MAY get similar discounts on those new 2020 models because dealers will know that if they don't move them by December effectively they all experience $7,500+ price increases. Which may mean, if they think that way, the end of year discounts on the 2019s may be stupid big. OTOH, if there's a feeding frenzy right at the end due to limited availability there may be no discounts at all.

Also, I'm not sure by then the Volt will still be qualifying for the credit. It seems like I read somewhere they're getting close to the 200,000 limit. So figuring that out, if true, is probably high up on the pachinko machine too--you could end up with only one option in that 50 EV mile category unless the credit just doesn't matter to you.

 

[Dana Mitchell]

That 200,000 is per manufacturer so that's for Chevrolet entirely, Volt and Bolt Sales.

http://evadoption.com/ev-sales/federal-ev-tax-credit-phase-out-tracker-by-automaker/

 

[Ben Washburn]

That 200,000 is per manufacturer so that's for Chevrolet entirely, Volt and Bolt Sales.

That's a good chart; I hadn't seen that. But yeah, that pretty much confirms the whole Chevy line will be off the table if the OP waits a year. I wonder what that will do to Clarity sales when it becomes the only PHEV with the relatively generous range?

But also, I thought all the credits expired at the end of 2019--when I first started looking at EVs I was really looking at Teslas so I think the Tesla expiration made me think it was for the credit as a whole, not just Tesla. I was too buried in TeslaWorld!

That's good news--I have a utilitarian vehicle to replace so maybe in two or three years someone will have a PHEV in a hatchback that gets 150 miles per charge. With good planning and a growing recharging infrastructure that could make even long range trips something like 75% electric.

 

[Mark W]

Right. In my case we can charge for free at home due to our excess solar generation. Right now without a plug in car, it's money going down the drain, essentially, as we don't get the same value when we sell our power back to the power company at the end of each year.

I think this is the key to YOUR current situation. I would think this should knock out all of the PHEVs that have the shorter range, and leave just the Clarity and Volt.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I think this is the key to YOUR current situation. I would think this should knock out all of the PHEVs that have the shorter range, and leave just the Clarity and Volt.

And given that he doesn't like small cars, that leaves just the Clarity.

Yanni, if you do decide to buy a Clarity PHEV, you'll be happy to know that there is a large and very active Clarity PHEV community here on this forum, so there will be plenty of people to answer any questions you might have, and advice to offer, specific to that car. In fact, I think there is now a "FAQ / Read this first" thread for Clarity owners?

Yes, it's here.

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