Thoughts on how to do second Cybertruck vs F150 challenge?

[101101]

Ah it appears that the shorts are starting to throw money at the gambling odds because they can't accept and don't want it known that they are being evicted from their fossil fuel rent seeking scam permanently.

So let us go over it again. The electric motor in a 40,000lbs gvrw full size Proterra city bus can be lifted by a single person. It is cheap enough to be replaced in routine maintenance if need be. It replaces an ICE motor/transmission that weighs 10x as much. It is a solid state unit the drive axel merely moves in a magnetic field. Even the 2016 power electric powertrain could take that bus 350 miles in stop and go inner city traffic. But again a single person can lift that motor. Any equivalent 2015 BYD bus ran all day and long for months and months in trial in Tibet essentially off he PV from its paneled roof. ICE is just beyond obsolete and these pull tests demonstrate it like nothing else.

So again its very simple. You take a price-as-sold unit that represents the Ford's performance option. That is a average selling price 75K Raptor and/or whatever Tesla chooses as representative. That Raptor (stupid name by the way- choose a little dinosaur for the large in the pants crowd ) fully specked
can't even come close to matching the features and functionality of any spec Cybertruck- just can't get there with obsolete design and obsolete ICE junk. And then no matter what the Cybertruck has at the very minimum market price matched its 2x the torque/hp (and that's just a software set point for stock long wear performance and responsibility ) and radically better torque at zero rpms and radically better traction control. You load these things up to their capacity (and all the Cybertrucks have 2x the capacity of a Raptor) and you go and it is the same result a Cybertruck will pull a fully loaded down 2020 Ford Raptor up a hill backwards like it was nothing. Last time Tesla did this likely with a dual or even single motor against the most common kind of F150- the vehicle people are driving now that it will replace. This is how it is. No matter what over its life the Cyber truck will be a lot cheaper and more reliable and zero emissions with much better performance because Ford F150 ICE is obsolete.

Lets think about how stupid the money is that tries to bet for Ford. Do we think Tesla would do the test if Ford could possible win it? No they wouldn't. Do we think they would have shown the first video if that were possible? No! Do we think this is a new idea? No its not. Musk brought it up a few years ago in the context of the Semi, same claim which he made in this case but for the Semi. Why? Because the pulling capacity of electric in his words is practically infinite (relative to ICE.) Do we think Tesla only planned one tug when it showed every man's F150 being properly destroyed to make a point? No, it anticipated a series of tugs but it apparently only had a couple weeks to throw a prototype together before the show and that was part of the shows demonstration. So that was a mere planned warm up.

Tesla has demonstrated the plaid power train with live people. It did that at the Semi launch. Is there a plaid mode apparently coming to the S and X (?) and maybe the truck (?) Maybe not and surely we're clear its not the same as the Roadster's. There is no Ludicrous for the Model 3. Point is just having roughly the same motor configuration doesn't mean they will be set up to get the same power output from the batteries. Tesla will presumably set up a vehicle with the SpaceX package that they intend to go for the world record at Nurburgring differently electrically so that it has more speed options. Hobbyist set up their batteries in their RC racers to discharge at 30x the normal rate- not the best use case for the batteries. But again the record holder at Nurburgring only carried exactly the fuel it needed and probably needed a new engine after one run. Whereas the Roadster will have true reputability. But we get the larger point that if they had to crank the power to drag something they certainly could.

 

[interestedinEV]

I think what @101101 is referring to with the weight is the fact that Elon said exosceletton. So yes, the steel is heavier, but you lose the internal frame.
So you lose the internal steel frame completely. You have higher weight on the outside. Not sure if it'll save weight in the end it how all that works.

This called the UniBody or unitized body design used in most cars but not trucks which still use the old body on frame design. While Uni body design can use lighter and stronger materials, use of 3 mm sheets negates the weight advantages. The reason why trucks use body on frame design is to withstand higher torsional stress i.e. strength against the twisting effects when towing loads or off roading. My guess is that the thicker plates are needed in the Cycbertruck to provide higher torsional rigidity than in most unibody designs, which have good lateral rigidity. (And in a nice, good marketing twist, Elon can claim that "our design stops bullets" rather than saying "we need thicker plates to be able to use the unibody design")

But on Alibaba when you order in 301 stainless by the ton it ranges from $800-$4471-per ton. If you look at what stainless by the industry costs is said to be $3lbs. So pretty sure you can actually get the highest grade annealed better than full hardness 301 stainless for $4471 a ton or $2.35 a lbs. But lets go with the worst case scenario of $3 a pound. And lets assume you need 3 times for the surface area or a squared box that would contain the truck (maybe other expensive steel like Posco high strength gigasteel is used inside- it will still be cheeper than 301) So that's 900lbs of steel or $3000 in cost for steel.

I can bet that Tesla does not buy steel on Alibaba . As per Tesla's website, they are using a specially formulated alloy of ULTRA-HARD 30X COLD-ROLLED STAINLESS STEEL. This tells me that they have worked with one or two mills to produce this alloy to stringent quality specifications, meaning it is not inexpensive.

https://www.worldautosteel.org/proj...the-weight-gap-with-aluminium-for-car-bodies/

So again neither the cost nor the weight of this material is going to be an issue and Rikard covers the construction.

Interesting article, I did download it. They have used a much smaller vehicle and they have used High Speed Steel, not SS. And the emphasis of the article is the formability which is not what SS is known for. The focus is on using thinner steel sizes which can replace alternatives, not thicker sizes. None of these materials suggested in this article are designed for rocket ships or armored cars.

From what I have read using my technical understanding is that it is an innovative approach to building trucks, that if everything goes right it could lead to lower or comparable costs. I do not want to get into estimating the production costs and weights as there is not enough information for me to do so and my guess will be as right or as wrong as yours. I can however see that there are going to mass production challenges (Space X which also uses this material is a low volume user) but that does not mean that they are not solvable.

While I applaud Elon and Tesla in the quest to bring new thinking to truck design, we have to wait and see if they can actually produce the truck within the given specifications at the given price in the given time frame. I personally think that something will have to give, either some of the capabilities such as bulletproofing or the cost, but I have known to be wrong. I am however rooting that Elon is able to achieve all of this as this will be a breakthrough in EVs.

 

[101101]

The linked article on high strength steel in cars was there just to show that steel can make lighter vehicles. Posco says the same. They make the point that their aluma steel ("giga steel") is stronger than titanium but weigh 1/3 what steel weighs and can be drawn to much thinner specifications really increasing the strength while lowering the weight of the vehicle dramatically and only cost what high grade steel costs. The point is steel it in its various forms is not necessarily heavy. The Alibaba check was just a guess about the higher end limit of the pricing.

But here is the thing the 30X stainless if you can form it provides the best strength to weight ratios. Here is a quote from a manufacturer about it:
"Extra Hard Colled Rolled - Type 301 - (chrome-nickel) Stainless Steel Strip has been stocked to meet the demand for exceptionally high strength and where a high strength-to-weight ratio is desired and good corrosion and heat resistance are necessary. Type 301 excels Type 302 in its high strength due to its lower nickel content causing it to work harden more rapidly. Its principal use is for mechanical springs and parts where exceptional hardness and toughness are required."

This is where Musk said this is the best there is. And it is NOT! heavy- the thickness is not the issue. 5lbs for a square meter at 3mm is obviously not heavy, especially not when an exterior is all that is needed- no frame. I do want to get into the amount and weight and cost of the body. I believe the body could weigh 300lbs or even less (about 1/7th other truck bodies) and have a mere $1000 or less in materials costs. And as Rikard's pointed out the construction can reduce the manufacturing process and tooling by 60% and the finish ditches the paint shop. This oragami design is not rocket science but it would cut potentially radically cut the cost and weight of the body while radically improving its stiffness, toughness, strength and maintainability. As Rikard pointed out this process is something the industry has been contemplating for decades. Musk also attributed the lightness of the truck to the use of this material and design.

Also this kind of steel has been used to form hulls of ICBMs for 60 years or more. Its likely been used as at least the interior hull of nuclear submarines. People have been working with it for 6 decades or more. We've been rolling it up into coil springs etc. for a long time.
Tesla doesn't have to bend this stuff very much at all to form that body. So my guess is 1/7 the weight. 1/7 the cost of materials, 1/5 or less the manufacture cost. 1/5 or less the manufacturing time. But a huge increase in design performance. It weighs only as much as a current F150 but (and the F150s already had their weight reduced by 30% through the use of aluminum.) It also has great aero dynamics.
This material seems like the kind of thing robots are perfectly equipped to handle. Cut it with a water knife or maybe a laser to score it and help bend it. Tesla is about to use a press to form 70 parts in one go to form a car body in one stamping, that won't happen here it seems but this is just a much a reduction in cost and complexity. And lets remember the Cybertruck has 1/3 the parts of a F150 and a solid state drive train (only the drive axle rotates- the power train just generates the field used to rotate it.) But it does so with precise instantaneous super efficient recuperative control over that movement.

I think the Cybertruck is as big a leap over a 2020 Raptor as he Raptor is over the first ICE truck.

 

[101101]

Cybetruck pull (towing 1400lbs + 3500lbs playload) 17500lbs 3x quicker 0-60 than Ford Raptor can pull 9750 lbs 0-60

Remember that the Cybertruck is in the same weight range as a F150 and is by the specs a much better off road vehicle than the Raptor.
But it looks based off of what the Tesla Semi can do relative to Class 8 vehicles like the Cybertruck could move close to 2x the weight the Raptor can handle 0-60 3x quicker just like the Tesla Semi. And if it scales the same way (the top spec already fully appointed Cybertruck- which has he same price with full self driving as the average Raptor sale price) the Cybertruck will take that load to 60mph in under 12 seconds and won' have any trouble with slowing down or overheating on hills like the Raptor does and diesel Class 8s do. If it scales the same way the Ford Raptor will take 36 seconds to get to 60 miles per hour. And all told the Cybertruck will be moving about 23000lbs 0-60mph in about 12 seconds. That would be in the same acceleration range as the 2013 Acura ILX Hybrid (bone dry.)

1. Show Cybertruck pulling a fully loaded down 2020 Ford Raptor up a hill backwards in a tug test like its nothing.

2. Show Cybertruck pulling (towing +payload) about 2x as much weight 3x faster than Raptor maximums 0-60mph- Show Raptor getting beat in that actual drag race.

3. Show Raptor slowing down and heating up grape vine with its 1/2 weight max load out but show the no slow down and no heat issue ever with Cybetruck with about double the weight.

4. Show Cybertruck destroy Raptor 0-60 unloaded (make sure the Raptor fuel tank us full) and 1/4 and 1/8 mile. Remind that Cybertruck is much more capable off road.