Tesla stock price

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Ok, so I asked Mr Google and got:

To tell if you're interacting with a bot, look for signs like overly fast responses, repetitive language, vague answers that don't address the context of your conversation, inability to understand sarcasm or nuances, a lack of personal anecdotes, and a tendency to stick to scripted responses, especially when asked complex or open-ended questions; essentially, if the conversation feels robotic and lacks the natural flow of human interaction, you might be dealing with a bot. ​

Back in 1975, I ran into a program on an IBM mainframe called ELIZA.

Created to explore communication between humans and machines, ELIZA simulated conversation by using a pattern matching and substitution methodology that gave users an illusion of understanding on the part of the program, but had no representation that could be considered really understanding what was being said by either party.​

Giving a tour of the computer service company I worked at, I could tell the young woman didn't really understand what the loud, noisy, well refrigerated machines were doing. So I fired up ELISA only to find in a few minutes the young woman was on the verge of tears. For example, this happened a few minutes ago:
upload_2025-1-31_9-1-52.webp​

So when I get "cut and paste" and evasive replies, ELIZA comes to mind. This is the source I offered:
elon_01.webp

elon_02.webp

You might find a copy in a local library if you don't want mine. Actually, the first one to PM me with an address gets the book. I've already read it and kept it only to cite specifics.

Bob Wilson
 
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Well, Tesla stock's gone down a bit, in part probably due to reports of imploding sales in Germany (hmmm... that neo-Nazi thing a problem there?) and other parts of Europe. But it's still what I consider to be irrationally high. The adventure continues. Companies that issue monthly sales reports (incl. Ford, Honda, Hyundai, Kia -- but not Tesla or GM) mostly reported EV sales up compared to a year ago.
 
Massive unemployment may also have an effect. Federal employees getting the "Fork" memo and China dependent manufacturers and retailers seeing price inflation.

Bob Wilson
 
Well, Tesla closed out this week down 11% for the week, no doubt in part due to reports of cratering sales in Europe (where Nazi salutes seem to be unpopular -- go figure). Sales reported down in China, too, but probably mainly due to the Model Y changeover so possibly temporary. The hot new social media hashtag for Tesla is #Swasticar -- probably suboptimal branding.
 
Agreed although IMHO the root cause is distracted management. For example, the robots. Robots don't buy cars or even other robots. Early Tesla almost died because too much emphasis was placed on robotics instead of trained, skilled production staff. Sad to say, Tesla is repeating the same mistake instead of engineering more affordable cars with free, Self Driving Software.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Agreed although IMHO the root cause is distracted management. For example, the robots. Robots don't buy cars or even other robots. Early Tesla almost died because too much emphasis was placed on robotics instead of trained, skilled production staff. Sad to say, Tesla is repeating the same mistake instead of engineering more affordable cars with free, Self Driving Software.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

Well, I think it's all related. Musk is distracted because he's chasing all this (crazy, IMHO) political stuff rather than steering Tesla in a logical direction. And presumably no one at the company has the power to do much about it or steer the ship onto a more productive course.
 
Yeah. The executive editor of Yahoo Finance posted a piece this morning noting that apparently the fundamentals -- you know, old-fashioned, low-tech stuff like sales and profits -- are finally kicking in as investors price Tesla. Seems about time. But it's still higher than it was for much of the last 2 years, so it may have farther to go.
 
And hard to explain why it went up so far last few months? Fundamentals certainly didn't support it. I suspect it still has a lot further to fall.
 
The descent appears to be increasing:
upload_2025-2-11_15-20-32.webp

Stock prices are in effect, a popularity contest between buyer and sellers. There are multiple motivations which can be hard to fathom in the instant. Personally, I think the board should give Elon a choice, politics+twitter, or Tesla. Elon being distracted, it is a coin toss which path he might choose.

Having sold all my TSLA, I have no dog in that fight.

Bob Wilson
 
I see Musk as distracted and that is also consistent with:


Bob Wilson

ps. Given Trumps past practices and his 'true believers,' I have some trepidation about Musk's future.
 
Why the stock is down, again:
Tesla made a big mistake with the Cybertruck, and FSD is so far another failure. Until they come out with new models that can compete with the likes of BYD, and even Hyundai, TSLA is in trouble. There may be some ups along the way, but it does not look good. This article highlights the FSD failures to-date. Credibility is not good. Musk did good to bring EVs to us, but he is floundering now. Sort of reminds me of what happened to Blackberry. Their owners got distracted with other things, and that was the beginning of the end.
https://electrek.co/2025/02/10/elon-musk-masterful-move-goalpost-tesla-full-self-driving/
 
There are a lot opinions about stocks on the Internet and stock brokers and fund managers and 'business analysts.' I really don't care for it but I came across this curious YouTube video that struck home because it resembles why I sold my TSLA for a roof top solar project:


My views on the four reasons postulated:
  1. Needs money for other things - I have sold TSLA to buy other things in the past and did so to buy a roof top Solar Project. At least the solar project will save future electric bills.
  2. Loses confidence in the management - Everyone should have a hobby but Elon has become distracted by (1) Twitter/X, (2) non-EV products and services, and (3) notorious for driving off productive employees who start new companies to compete with Tesla.
  3. Loses confidence in the business - The latest Model 3 has the same kWh/100 mi as mine, 25 kWh/100 miles. Worse, we've elected an anti-EV, anti-windmill, pro-oil, sociopath. It is not 'will he kill EVs' in the USA but when and how he will kill our USA businesses and government to implement Herbert Hoover's policies.
  4. The stock is overpriced - TSLA has never paid or offered dividends. Its value is a popularity contest between buyers and sellers. Worse, its R&D is being frittered away on robots, large vehicles I would not buy, unrealistic AI expectations, and obvious flaws not being addressed in Full Self Driving.
These four 'reasons to sell' parallel my reason to sell. Just Musk's distraction was the latest which marked a distinct change in Tesla management.

Bob Wilson
 
Are you still trying to rationalize your sale? Your timing was a mistake. But it is done, can't be reversed. Move on.

Where the stock goes from here, we can only speculate. But it is interesting to watch,... for many reasons. And to watch others who have their own opinions, some pretty strong. I personally have never owned the stock, and never would. I have my own opinions, which don't necessarily match others here. But that's what makes forum traffic. We can sometimes agree, and sometimes not.

I am actually a pretty active trader, and like to take advantage of volatility. I made some good money these last couple weeks, playing the ups and downs of some Cdn stocks that could be affected by the tariffs. And it is not over yet... I do have some US holdings, but mostly just ETFs with nice dividends, that utilize covered calls and are well hedged against losses. I occasionally do make some opportunity trades on individual US stocks, but don't hold them for long. I don't like high valuations.
 
R P said:
Are you still trying to rationalize your sale?
Click to expand...
Just observing a parallel pattern with Warren Buffett (if the video is to be believed.) I wasn't looking for it when it showed up in my YouTube feed this morning and thought to share. This occurred many months after I sold my TSLA and had no impact on my decision to sell.

We each have a right to be wrong. If your investments make you happy, go with God. Past fees associated with stock buying and selling inhibited me from that strategy. As is my practice, GOOD LUCK!

So this part of what I bought:
upload_2025-2-16_23-2-29.webp
A frosty morning in Dixie, you can see three panels are in the direct morning sunlight The other 13 are frost covered but will be perfect for sunset. I'll get my first 'dividend' with the March electric bill. Then dividends every month thereafter.

Technical details:
solar_schematic.webp

Once the system is online, I'll install three lighting terminal rods along the apex of the top roof and ground each end of the cable. Equipment can be replaced but a house fire would be worse.

BTW, my insurance house value will go from ~$250,000 to ~$350,000 after we get the Permit To Operate. In effect, the former TSLA capital is preserved in the value of the house and soon will pay monthly dividends.

Bob Wilson
 
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So, does this mean your property taxes will go up?

But don't get the wrong idea, I am a big fan of solar power. There is a lot of unused roof space available, so why not put it to use. Unfortunately, where I live on grid, our govts do not support that. We have an abundance of hydro electricity here and is produced and supplied by a govt agency called BC Hydro. And roof solar would just take away revenues from them. Instead they promote the use of electricity, incl getting home heat pumps and replacing gas stoves with electricity. I think that is dumb as I consider renewable hydro electricity as a precious commodity and we should not be wasting it for uses that are better served by nat gas. For sure, there will not be any new hydro dams built. So, with permitting, installation regulations, they make it very expensive to install home roof top solar. I looked into it several times, and payback would be 20 -30 years (used to be 15 years), which is ridiculous.

BUT, off grid, it is a very different story. We have a lake cabin, where hydro power is not available so everyone has their own solar. Plus we don't have to comply with all the regulations, expensive materials, permits and construction costs that we would have to at home. So I built a very economical 3.2kW panel system with 20 kWh battery storage. Works great and totally trouble free (no power outages, haha, like at home). The total cost incl charge controllers and inverter is less than $6000 (CAD). It is more than enough to handle our cabin needs even if the sun doesn't shine, and when it does can charge my car and still have enough to power our cabin needs. So yeah, am a big fan of solar, if it can be produced cheaply,... and it can.
 
I expect both property and insurance will go up. Both have been going up. But my step increase has a cause and others beyond my control.

Bob Wilson
 
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