Tesla Semi tractor may come in way under 17000lbs meaning more range

[SouthernDude]

This statement assumes large scale hydrogen storage is significantly cheaper than battery storage. Do we have prices on hydrogen grid storage?

This is true. It is an assumption and I have a rational on why I think it is generally true. Batteries work very well for short term duration storage and are great at meeting daily peaks and smoothing out near instantaneous variations in grid voltage/etc. While this is great and all, seasonal storage is a different animal.

Seasonal storage basically creates a market condition where you have a small period of time during the year to earn revenue. The service is generally high-value, but it's not going to earn the same revenue for providing yearly services. All this to say that a battery LCOE for daily grid services isn't correct to use in this comparison.

We can assume that transmission costs for both Hydrogen and batteries are negligible because its possible to use the existing infrastructure for both. The same assumption can be made with existing natural gas pipelines if necessary.

The capital cost of existing natural gas plants is incredibly low and its possible to do the same for hydrogen or the same facility that generated the hydrogen could run the electrolysis process in reverse and generate the electricity. The additional capital cost would just be the hydrogen storage tank itself in that case.

Hydrogen storage tanks can store hydrogen at various different pressures. This effectively means that there is a range of total energy storage where the marginal cost of for increasing the total energy storage by an additional unit of energy is essentially equal to the cost of the hydrogen when it is produced.

Batteries don't have that advantage. The marginal cost of adding additional battery storage is effectively the same over the same energy amount. That's not even getting into space considerations with batteries either.

Both the tank and battery will 'leak' energy over time and I'm not sure what that looks like for a grid scale battery.

I could be wrong, but that doesn't matter. I just don't want arbitrary regulations that would prevent market competition between the two.

 

[petteyg359]

Why are you so against hydrogen? Maybe it will work, and maybe it won't,... for long range freight transport. But at this time, electric batteries (and associated infrastructure) aren't there yet either. It will take some more time to determine which is best.

I don't think we should put all our eggs in one basket. Who knows what could happen to the electric grid. It seems to be falling apart in CA right now, and maybe elsewhere. Could be big trouble after 2035. Having to depend completely on oil wasn't the best either, esp when you were dependent on foreign countries for supply.

The electric grid in CA "falling apart" is because a certain company preferred to be a profit vampire and didn't perform required upkeep and maintenance. They admitted fault to at least one of the recent fires. That's a problem with profiteering corporations, though, not the electric grid.

 

[101101]

Only idiot companies with board members who are CEOs of fossil fuel companies say anything that isn't negative about the hydrogen fraud. Musk nailed it: fool cells.

Manufacturing hydrogen sucks even dirty reforming of it wastes 2x or more energy just to get into hydrogen form with at least 2x the polution. Doing it green is much worse in multiples of waste when its much better just to send that energy to batteries in the first place. Just right at the point of coverting the energy to hydrogen it is unrecoverably dead because it can't ever compete. The whole green stack is 90% efficient cummulative if you run it true green- not minus 200% at step one like hydrogen. Even trying to convert it into electricity you lose 40%.

You want to ship it? That majorly sucks too. Liquid cryogenically cooled under pressure hydrogen (the only true bulk hydrogen storage option) takes 3x the volume of gasoline. Way worse when its a gas and you try to move semi or train car way, way more containers.

But lets talk about STORAGE of Hydrogen because this is the most laughable of all!!!
Could you have a worse long term storage medium of chemical extraction of energy?
You want to store it in bulk, you have to waste 200% minimum just to get it into hydrogen form. Liquifyinh it will be minus another 15% or more. Then you have to constantly super cool it which isn't cheap- then ridiculously you have to keep pressurized or under pressure when its an incompressible liquid then you have deal with very high self discharge or loss rates. As you know it can sweat out of tanks right through metal walls and bleed past valves (and these are very expensive storage systems. The self discharge rate for liquid air batteries is 5 years to go from 100% to zero. Hydrogen is going to be a lot worse.

But you know what doesn't suck for storage in terms of self discharge anymore? Batteries. Even NIMH which would lose all it charge over a few months a decade ago is now 25 to 100 years now to full self discharge. Lithium is tracking the same.

I tried to pencil out what a stack of 4680s verses a brand new liquid air energy storage facility would cost to store 250mwhrs. Press says air storage is $112 million for a plant that size. 4680 are 1/10th cost and going to be more compact and much safer to be around with much lower self discharge loss rates by decades. Hard to beat solid state room temperature made out of sand!!!!!!!!!!

If I had to guess hydrogen bulk storage is 10x the cost of bulk air storage which is 10x the cost of 4680.

Ships will use 4680s
Trains will use 4680s or electrified wire
Planes will use 4680s, the new electric plasma jets china developed, upper atmosphere ion culling, new efficient V bodies and in some case detaching systems that help with the lift off only (nothing wrong with that, planes now routinely take off with more fuel than they can safely land with)
Hydrogen won't be used any where not even in that dumb little fork lift company with its scammy Nikola like hidden fuel lease scams that hide totally obvious non viability in costs. Hydrogen won't it seems even be used in elemental form in rocketry.
We're cutting the cord on these austerity inducing public budget vampires.
It doesn't matter what powerful families want the hydrogren scam physics and survival will over-ride them. Its a puzzle why we have to put up with these families- was it democracies weren't a good way to a one world government to address aliens or something like that. Well neither is dumb as rocks fossil fuels unless its holding off an ice age.

 

[bwilson4web]

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota...8-fuel-cell-electric-truck-for-north-america/

Some experiments have to proceed to the bitter end.

Bob Wilson

 

[101101]

They don't have any proven tech just the Mirai which is a total market place failure. They just got denied by CA and SCE the permit to try to build a plant in Long Beach because the state can see its bs and not clean- the were trying the same fungible pipline bs that they would put toilet gas in the pipe and not take Shell standard fossil fuels at the other end for reformation. If it is NG based it is sure as hell not green and absoutely not carbon negative like the obvious BS Hyllion is putting out.

Mirai: less than half the performance and way, way higher fuel costs and super dirty in reality. Even the VW ID4 which has less than half the acceleration of a Model Y and a compromised range and no one pedal braking does better.

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota...8-fuel-cell-electric-truck-for-north-america/

Some experiments have to proceed to the bitter end.

Bob Wilson

 

[101101]

I've never bought that the Tesla Semi was cell contstrained. I think we would have seen it a year ago with 2170 cells with all the stated stats it at the expected price just all these ahole ICE and fossil fuel companies were on their hands and knees begging the Trump admin to delay it some how. I also kind of wonder if the stupid Nikola suit had that effect to any degree. Something didn't add up. But I think Tesla must have got something in return for any delay. I pretty certain the FF industry must be behind the scenes claiming it will go under if the Tesla Semi is allowed to go to market. But even if only in say China it will get in somewhere and then its over everywhere. Its going to be a fight because both Tesla trucks are absolutely disruptive.

Really Its going to start to happen some where. Russia did Yukos. But it seems like these companies will end up having their charters disolved, their officers imprisoned and their share holders liquidated, their assets nationalized and I wonder if it will start with Exxon which it was learned is planning to increase emissions by 17% over the next 6 years. What does Exxon know that we don't. Are they staving off an ICE are about to get hit with planet X? At some point the government will label these firms criminal enterprises.
Being properly heavy with PG&E is a good way to start. Maybe CA kicks Exxon out.

 

[R P]

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota...8-fuel-cell-electric-truck-for-north-america/
Bob Wilson

That sounds pretty impressive. I have a lot more faith in Toyota technology and engineering that other manufacturers.

 

[101101]

Its still utterly lame and will never work out and its dishonest

That sounds pretty impressive. I have a lot more faith in Toyota technology and engineering that other manufacturers.

Thinking of Gates comment that Tesla just did the easy part with EVs. That is so foolish. Electric rail never went away and it was there from the beginning. Battery powered locomotives in mines and in the EU electrified rail. 10 years ago DOE took the diesle stack off a full sized GE locomotive with lead acid batteries with recuperative braking but only on the actual locomotive. It had better power and better range by far- like double 24 hrs and only needed about 3hrs to charge (but could easily load and off load the batter for instant charge) well within operating paremeters. Go farther without down time or cool down. Lower maintenance- lower costs by far on fuel and not even expensive on a unit basis. 4680 solves everything else.

 

[101101]

Tesla Semi destroys the Hyllion tech/approach which surely isn't green, will be comparatively very expensive to operate and will have comparately nothing like the performance on grades or the safety over all. Hyllion will also take 16-20 min per 600 miles to fill or 32-40 min for 1200 miles. Its about 1.2 million $$ for the equipment to fill 2 class 8 trucks at a time at that rate. As I've mentioned above I'd conjecture based on battery day the Tesla Semi may well match the upper range for full long haul or beyond.

Hyllion will get something like 3.39w per mile or 12 mpg or $139 in fuel to go 600 miles or $23166 to 100k miles or $231660 to go a million miles- but the cost of NG is not stable so could be more. Maintenance likely 1/2 diesel or $7500 a year or $75000 over 10 years. Operating costs for Hyllion is about $306660 over 10 years excluding the driver and insurance.

Tesla Semi Guess:
Tesla Semi 1.3 watts per mile (far lower than the vague under 2 watts per mile announced in 2017) or $54.6 at Tesla's announced cost of 7 cents a kwh for 600 miles but as low as $7.8 for 600 miles if one can get 8 Minute Energy's 1 cent kwh or match it with one's own solar system. So between $1300 and $9100 for 100k miles and between $13000 and $91000 for 1 million miles or 10 years. Tesla semi obviously includes million mile batteries and million mile motors almost maintenance free or about 1/10th diesel or about $1500 a year or $15000 for a million miles. But auto pilot plus Tesla insurance (where Tesla insurance doesn't constantly buy dumb fossil fuel stocks to socialize their endless losses,) should cut costs much further than competitors. But straight material cost per year of $2,800-10,600 or $28,000 to $106,000 for 10 years. That's a worst case savings of about $200,660 or %65.5 on operating costs. Now the Tesla trucks might be 50K more expensive but you may save that on insurance and better up time. The best case has the Tesla at 1/10 the cost to operate.

Also while the Hyllion trucks will have better than average diesel power they will have nothing like the rocket ship power of the Tesla they simply don't have enough batteries or the right kind. Also won't have the safety features or the ergonomics.

Either can convoy and you drop the price way down and put bankrupting pressure on the fossil fuel industry- the goal should be bankrupting that industry as a matter of outright justice. But the post battery day Tesla looks like it will be better than rail just with 1.3 khw per mile even with out convoying. Hyllion won't be better than rail but with convoy will approach rail. Less use of NG will drive its price up making Hyllion even less viable although it won't be viable the moment the Tesla reaches the market- hilariously Shell will be forced into scraping the ICE components and increasing the batteries or Hyllion goes under- of course hydrogen won't work.

Also Hyllion won't even be remotely green even in principle- there are legal considerations here but this looks like pure absolute fraud on the net negative green claims or fraud of the worst kind and this baby fall guy CEO is very apt to destroy himself if he keeps repeating it- its missleading and looks obviously intended misleading investors. 4% of CA burned this year and we may just be getting started- requiring 17000 fire fighters. 64% decline in terresterial animal life and 84% decline in fresh water animals since 1970- these fools are playing with literal dynamite. What will happen to them when CA looks like Australia? But its a desperate Shell making the claim, one desperate to push into vehicle manufacturing to try to shill and shim a continued place for its obsolete products. Claim is 40% of transport comes from so called 'renewable' natural gas- but its not renewable in any meaningful sense because its not necessary or unavoidable and its also ridiculous because CNG is a tiny part of transport right now and its totally obviously just meant to be hard to track or fine or shut down, its a shell game of fungibility or diesel gate II that tries to hide behind it being cheaper to ship in pipelines but the pipelines are just props in a fraud- NG had no future even before Trump came in and green tech didn't stand still but fossil fuel crap is an obvious pure dead. Hyllion is not net negstive- it will still be super dirty but hiding straight 1x NG behind RNG bs is better then than the multi x gray hydrogen but still obvious straight criminality that has to be stopped. Even if bs RNG could scale it would have them doing things like constructing uneccessary maneure lagoons and generating unnecessary polluting methane (which needs to have the restrictions placed back on it.) Regardless- biogas or straight NG or biogas acting as a token mask for NG none of it will EVER be economically viable but you already have stupid states like Utah trying to subsidize this crap beyond the hyper. Say the non subsidized and non exempted rate is 25 cents a khw and (that is being generous) but with all that hyper bs its 6 cents a kwh- Utah is trying to temporarily push it to 4.5 cents a kwh- that is theft from its citzens on an even grander scale? Why? The answer is not yobs! But it still doesn't compete with unsubsidized unexempted battery backed solar at 1 cent a kwh with flat price curves.

 

[gooki]

So few details on the Toyota/Hino truck is kind of telling.