Tesla Model 3 is outselling Chevy Bolt 9 to 1

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101101

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Through the year Bolts are decreasing month after month and in the most recent month it appears the Model 3 outsold the Chevy Bolt 9 to 1. Up to this point in the year the total is 4 to 1 which is due largely to Tesla's ramp up. By the end of the year assuming Bolt sales don't improve or are even able to hold steady it could be a difference of 40 to 1. Some of this also has to do with GM choosing to create an econo-box compliance car and market it and build it in compliance fail-convincingly numbers.

That is one of the big narrative strategies of petrol that some fail-convincingly company will take the lead to help push a pure green play like Tesla out. Same holds for Jaguar (Tata) until they go full green as captured media's support for them is mainly again that they don't seem to be pure green play speaking to the media's bought and paid for nature.
 
No one other than Tesla is a pure green play. There are some other start ups but not significant. In search for cars, only Nissan seems to be interested in pushing the Leaf. All others, it is a compliance car. Not sure why GM does not want to push the Bolt given that they could be legitimate competitor to the Tesla 3.
 
Dealers are a big part of the problem. They actively and passively resist efficient cars so give them what they want ... and open an entirely separate dealer or sales division. Peel off hybrids, plugin-hybrids, and BEVs into a separate brand.

The new dealer network is kept separate from the existing regional and mega-dealer companies. An independent show room and service center. So instead of hiding efficient cars in a forest of traditional cars, let them sit on their own.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Peel off hybrids, plugin-hybrids, and BEVs into a separate brand. The new dealer network is kept separate from the existing regional and mega-dealer companies. An independent show room and service center. So instead of hiding efficient cars in a forest of traditional cars, let them sit on their own.

Bob Wilson
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Interesting concept, again the only manufacturers who have a line up that might work is Hyundai today. To be self sustaining either you have to a blockbuster single car model or a series of cars. Yes Tesla started one with a single model, but they had a story they could sell to investors. You have to be able sell at least 50-100,000 cars a year to have a brand or a sub-brand, even more if you have a separate service network. An established car manufacturer with shareholders may have a more difficult time making the investment in creating a new brand (and it will cost a lot). Toyota could if they added the Fuel Cell concept car to this and developed a BEV, which they have no intention of doing. Hence Toyota would really have only hybrids, which they are better of selling through their existing network.

That leaves Hyundai which has hybrids, PHEV, BEV and fuel cell car, the only one with a complete line up of competitive cars but for now only in California but they are not close to being market leaders (Toyota dominates the hybrid market, Tesla the EV market with Chevy and Nissan following Tesla) . Hence it might be worth the investment for Hyundai to create a brand and possibly a separate store that leverages the existing service network. BMW might be able to get into the mix with the new set of cars. Chevy does have the PHEV and EV and they have clout to do this but they would need a focus and do not seem to have it.

In other words, you have a great idea, but for most manufacturers, it will stop at the bean counters desk unless they have a visionary leader.
 
interestedinEV said:
Not sure why GM does not want to push the Bolt given that they could be legitimate competitor to the Tesla 3.
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1. GM doesn't make much profit off the Bolt EV. I don't believe the claims that GM loses $9000 on every Bolt EV -- or rather, that kindergarten-level analysis is much too simplified to be meaningful -- but I strongly doubt they're making more than a razor-thin profit margin on a per-unit basis. Why would GM want to spend money increasing production on a car which earns them little if any profit, when that money would be far better invested in almost any other of their many models of automobiles?

2. GM doesn't have access to a source of battery cells which they control. They are utterly dependent on what LG Chem is able and willing to sell them in any given year. LG Chem originally required orders two years in advance for their newer, lower cost batteries. So far as I know, they still need about the same lead time for substantial increases in orders.

Tesla has spent, and will spend, billions of dollars to build out Gigafactory 1... and so has Panasonic. Tesla has done what is necessary to control their own EV battery cell supply. GM has not. It's that simple.
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interestedinEV said:
That leaves Hyundai which has hybrids, PHEV, BEV and fuel cell car, the only one with a complete line up of competitive cars but for now only in California but they are not close to being market leaders...
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Can't we say the same about Honda? The Clarity has PHEV, BEV, and FCEV versions. On the other hand, as was pointed out in a comment just the other day, only the PHEV version is worth much discussion, because the other two versions aren't selling in quantity, at least not here in the U.S.

Surprised you'd even mention fuel cell cars. Those are not selling in a quantity sufficient to have any noticeable impact on the market, and they're not going to. Within a few years sales will start to taper off, as further generations of BEVs improve in usefulness and as fast-charging gives way to ultrafast-charging. Eventually governments in California and Japan will stop subsidizing them, and then even Toyota will stop making them.
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<AHEM>
interestedinEV said:
Interesting concept, again the only manufacturers who have a line up that might work is Hyundai today. To be self sustaining either you have to a blockbuster single car model or a series of cars.
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Let me suggest using the 'Power Search' function of www.fueleconomy.gov.
  • Make - set to Toyota
  • Vehicle type - click hybrid, plug-in, and all electric
I count:
  • 10 Toyota models (11 if the Mirai is included)
  • 4 Ford models
  • 5 Chevy models
  • 7 Hyundai models
I remember the former Toyota Scion, 4 models, and GM Saturn sub-brands. Gone now, their unique contributions did not sustain a high enough return on investment. Scion was absorbed into the Toyota line and Saturn evaporated as it was a different marketing practice.

Bob Wilson
 
interestedinEV said:
Not sure why GM does not want to push the Bolt given that they could be legitimate competitor to the Tesla 3.
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That's simply not true. No way it could ever be a legitimate competitor its an econobox compliance car whereas with Model 3 Musk made good on his promise and its simply the best car one car one can get for the money. New BMW 3 series or now its about to destroy its marketshare and it is already doing the same for non competitive Leaf and Bolt.
 
"Why would GM want to spend money increasing production on a car which earns them little if any profit, when that money would be far better invested in almost any other of their many models of automobiles?"

far better invested?

Maybe they might want to stay in business? But they are all about slopping at the trough and placing blame. When they went bankrupt under Bush and needed a bailout they tried to blame their workers. So funny you put it this way. They are all about trying to suck off the trickle down from the theft known as petrol fuel/energy subsidies. Their profit derived as it is from the unjustifiable petrol subsidies echo system logistical chain means a loss of schools and other services and a suppression of our quality of life, standard of living and security. Propping up their crap (regular passed down petrol losses even beyond titanic subsides) means way higher health care costs and ridiculous mortgage terms etc. So they can't take any real step that would reduce their ill gotten gain from that theft and fraud. And profit for who but their complicit investors? So they can't be bothered to create a competitive offering because it would mean less fat on the hog. Stay structurally bankrupt keep the hog fat.
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Can't we say the same about Honda? The Clarity has PHEV, BEV, and FCEV versions.

Surprised you'd even mention fuel cell cars. Those are not selling in a quantity sufficient to have any noticeable impact on the market, and they're not going to. Within a few years sales will start to taper off, as further generations of BEVs improve in usefulness and as fast-charging gives way to ultrafast-charging. Eventually governments in California and Japan will stop subsidizing them, and then even Toyota will stop making them.
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The big seller is conventional hybrid, Hyundai has a hybrid that they are pushing and so does Kia. Honda Accord hybrid is way down the list. To have a separate brand you need to have some good selling models and the only one that fits the bill now is conventional hybrids. If you are going to be having a fuel efficient brand you have to invest in Hybrid. However, I will accept that Honda could create a separate brand, so could Ford, who have a good hybrid. So I guess after Hyundai, it would be Honda who could do it but then Honda would have to put more effort into their hybrid sales.

About Fuel Cells, the only advantage is refueling is as long as gas, in five minutes or less. I do not see in the next 5 years, anyone getting to the point that you can provide a 300+ mile charge in less than 5 minutes. The only non hydrocarbon alternative to quick refueling is fuel cell. Yes Tesla can get a full charge in 75 minutes but unless then can bring it down much more, electric cars will still be a niche segment.
 
bwilson4web said:
<AHEM>


Let me suggest using the 'Power Search' function of www.fueleconomy.gov.
  • Make - set to Toyota
  • Vehicle type - click hybrid, plug-in, and all electric
I count:
  • 10 Toyota models (11 if the Mirai is included)
  • 4 Ford models
  • 5 Chevy models
  • 7 Hyundai models
I remember the former Toyota Scion, 4 models, and GM Saturn sub-brands. Gone now, their unique contributions did not sustain a high enough return on investment. Scion was absorbed into the Toyota line and Saturn evaporated as it was a different marketing practice.

Bob Wilson
Click to expand...

Toyota does not have a pure BEV. They have made it clear they do not see a future in BEV, they do have plug ins and the hybrid line + Mirai. It does not make sense for them to start a separate brand they are selling Hybrids well enough without it. Chevy has the Bolt, Volt and 3 hybrids which are way way down in sales
(https://www.hybridcars.com/april-2018-sales-dashboard/). Ford has a good selling hybrid the fusion, but they do not seem to have focus (pun intended) on BEV or PHEV's.

However, your point on the Scion Brand and the Saturn brand is correct, it does not make sense to have a new brand unless you can sell mass volumes or higher margins (e.g. luxury segment).
 
Let explain it:
interestedinEV said:
Toyota does not have a pure BEV. They have made it clear they do not see a future in BEV, they do have plug ins and the hybrid line + Mirai. It does not make sense for them to start a separate brand they are selling Hybrids well enough without it. . . .
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  • Local Toyota Dealer Hostility - when I tested the waters about a post retirement job, the sales folks I spoke with were very proud of their sales records of Camrys, gas Camrys. When I test drove a Gen-4 Prius, the sales staff were astounded at the mileage I got (but not me.) Their sales technique was to offer list price. When I stood up to leave, they brought another quote, $3,000 lower. They didn't pay attention to my complaint that the Gen-3 did not get good enough mileage, a 2016 Prius Level 3 with a d*mn moonroof instead of the 2016 Prius ECO. They made no effort to sell me the ECO.
  • SouthEast Toyota Region Hostility - they resisted the Prius and decided not to offer the Prius Prime plug-in. They absolutely are not selling them and if you insist on placing an order, they load them up at the port with all sorts of expensive cr*p.
Separation from the 'traditional' dealer network is the first step. You don't want ignorant and resentful sales staff and management anywhere near the efficient cars. So have a separate sales lot with the wide range of efficient models to choose from and Toyota has a bunch.

Setup the facility with access to 24x7 charging, fast DC and several L2. If really supporting hydrogen fuel stations, a filling station. Work with ChargePoint to have a free parking card at the chargers but a parking fee for everyone else.

This favors the Toyota brand making them truly practical and not a dang science project. For good measure, require renewal at the dealership every three years . . . so they can see the improved models. Allow non-Toyota owners to use the chargers because you want them to look at the efficient Toyota inventory. After hours, a sun and rain shielded bench with water and possibly a unisex bathroom accessible ONLY if someone is using a charger or fuel cell refueling station.

Bob Wilson
 
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The Bolt and Model 3 are completely different cars. The only thing that makes people compare them is that they are electric cars with similar range. The Bolt is a boxy car with an economy level interior. The Model 3 is a sexy, fast, hi-tech luxury car. No comparison other than the big battery underneath them.
 
Mark W said:
The Bolt and Model 3 are completely different cars. The only thing that makes people compare them is that they are electric cars with similar range. The Bolt is a boxy car with an economy level interior. The Model 3 is a sexy, fast, hi-tech luxury car. No comparison other than the big battery underneath them.
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True that Model 3 is a Sedan that comfortably seats 5, Bolt is an overpriced small hatch back. The level of controls and features is also much more advanced in the Model 3. You are right that they are not comparable as far as specifications are concerned and the only reason that people look at them is due to the fact that there are the only BEV's with 220+ mile range. However, they are in different price brackets today which implies the car segment.

The big difference is that Bolt can be bought at $40,000 out of the door price, the only Model 3 today with some upgrades cost around $55,000 with a better range. Yes when the Model 3 version at $35,000 come out, it will have similar range with Bolt but offer a lot more. The operative word is "when". Today the only car with a 220 mile range and under $40,000 is the Bolt. The $35,000 Tesla Model 3 is still away in the distance, if it happens. So many things can change between today and a year from now but if the price does come down to $35,000, there is a night and day difference.
 
I'm dragging my feet, but my wife wants to drive 400+ miles this weekend, to buy a Bolt at a reasonable price (approx.36k). The Tesla website says 6 to 9 months before the Model 3 standard battery is available. I assume that is for people who already have reservations, which I don't. When it does become available will it really sell for 35k as promised?

Stalling... stalling...
 
Droidish said:
I'm dragging my feet, but my wife wants to drive 400+ miles this weekend, to buy a Bolt at a reasonable price (approx.36k). The Tesla website says 6 to 9 months before the Model 3 standard battery is available. I assume that is for people who already have reservations, which I don't. When it does become available will it really sell for 35k as promised?

Stalling... stalling...
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I don't think you will see a $35,000 Tesla anytime soon. I suspect you will be able to buy the short range model 3 for around $45,000, including AutoPilot sometime early next year.
 
Droidish said:
my wife wants to drive 400+ miles this weekend, to buy a Bolt
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Have you checked Plugshare to see what sort of charging is available along the return route?

Caution as dealer chargers are often locked up at night. So it might make more sense to plan a sleep-over on the way back to get a full charge for the last leg.

Take pictures and let us know how it worked.

Bob Wilson
 
400+ miles means a minimum of two full charges (assuming it is fully charged at the beginning and there is full charge station exactly about between say 200 and 210 miles away from your start point and there are no detours or delays on the road). Just too many ifs for my liking. More likely you have to charge it at least twice and possibly thrice during the journey (again assuming you being with a full charge). If you have a fast DC charger you could could get about 90 miles in 30 minutes. So you need to actually map out your route very carefully and be ready for 1-2 intermediate charges (a quick charge which might get you to next station where you can wait to have a full charge). Map it out and have a couple of different options if possible. Worse case you may need to have AAA or someone you can call in an emergency. Unlikely you can do it in one day unless all the stars are lined up, so overnight might be necessary, all depends upon where you are coming from and where you are going to, why type of roads you are driving on (freeway, highway, smaller roads), where the chargers are located etc.
 
Chevy might be able to include shipping the car to a local dealer after the deal is done. But if this is your first EV, you might consider going used.

EVs depreciate rapidly and battery deterioration has not been universally bad. The depreciation is 2-3x greater than the $7.5k Federal tax credit.

Bob Wilson
 
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