Suddenly there seem to be a lot of $35k EVs

[Lars]

Tesla M3 (basic), Nissan Leaf+, Kia eNiro, Hyundai Kona Electric, Chevy Bolt. This is, price wise, a market saturation! Wonderful for all of you guys in sunny California . And to folks who can get them in other states.

While here in Canada the prices are still prohibitive for me, it is still good news. The reason is this, watch the prices to drop in a not so distant future. While these cars are certainly not equivalent in terms of use, like an M3 is a sexy sport car vs. a more practical Leaf or Bolt or an SUV type Niro or Kona, to a lot of EV enthusiasts who are budget constrained this is a smorgasbord! The direct result is that all manufacturers will need to compete for every sale.

Mark my words, the prices will come done and faster then we think. Also the silly optoining of certain safety features, like adaptive cruise control, lane assistant, emergency breaking, are already standard on all Toyota cars. These will become standard on all EVs regardless of trim level. All manufacturers have these features already. True, some work better than the others. But it is only Tesla who will be sucessful to charge for the Auto pilot and rightly so.

 

[DaleL]

Adaptive cruise control and emergency braking are NOT "silly optoining" (sic). The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) reported: "GM vehicles with autobrake and forward collision warning had 43 percent fewer police-reported front-to-rear crashes of all severities and 64 percent fewer front-to-rear crashes with injuries than the same vehicles without any front crash prevention technology." Similar results are being reported for other vehicles with emergency braking.

I do agree that there are more "$35k" EVs. (The real price before tax credits is more like $40k.) I think this is because the average selling price for all passenger vehicles in the USA in 2018 was just under $36k, according to Kelly Blue Book. Even at $35k, EVs are missing out on the bottom 1/2 of the new car market. The various tax credits help, but people buying $25k vehicles typically do not have enough taxes to take full advantage of the tax credits.

Also, $35k EVs do not yet have enough range to be the "one" car in the family. Instead, affordable EVs are the "second" car. They are perfect for everyday transportation. Long road trips, 400+ miles, are still best done in an ICE vehicle (conventional, hybrid, phev). As battery technology improves, even the $35k EVs will have 300 to 400 mile range on a single charge.

 

[Lars]

Adaptive cruise control and emergency braking are NOT "silly optoining" (sic). The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) reported: "GM vehicles with autobrake and forward collision warning had 43 percent fewer police-reported front-to-rear crashes of all severities and 64 percent fewer front-to-rear crashes with injuries than the same vehicles without any front crash prevention technology." Similar results are being reported for other vehicles with emergency braking.

I do agree that there are more "$35k" EVs. (The real price before tax credits is more like $40k.) I think this is because the average selling price for all passenger vehicles in the USA in 2018 was just under $36k, according to Kelly Blue Book. Even at $35k, EVs are missing out on the bottom 1/2 of the new car market. The various tax credits help, but people buying $25k vehicles typically do not have enough taxes to take full advantage of the tax credits.

Also, $35k EVs do not yet have enough range to be the "one" car in the family. Instead, affordable EVs are the "second" car. They are perfect for everyday transportation. Long road trips, 400+ miles, are still best done in an ICE vehicle (conventional, hybrid, phev). As battery technology improves, even the $35k EVs will have 300 to 400 mile range on a single charge.

Sorry, I was not clear. I never meant that safety features are "silly". What I meant was that the practice optioning these is silly. They should be included in the base price.

And you are absolutely correct. $35k is still high for half of the market. Unfortunately this makes it even higher price for second cars. On the other hand our old iMiEV, even with its 60M range is plenty for us as a second car.

 

[Jimmy Truong]

Adaptive cruise control and emergency braking are NOT "silly optoining" (sic). The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) reported: "GM vehicles with autobrake and forward collision warning had 43 percent fewer police-reported front-to-rear crashes of all severities and 64 percent fewer front-to-rear crashes with injuries than the same vehicles without any front crash prevention technology." Similar results are being reported for other vehicles with emergency braking.

I do agree that there are more "$35k" EVs. (The real price before tax credits is more like $40k.) I think this is because the average selling price for all passenger vehicles in the USA in 2018 was just under $36k, according to Kelly Blue Book. Even at $35k, EVs are missing out on the bottom 1/2 of the new car market. The various tax credits help, but people buying $25k vehicles typically do not have enough taxes to take full advantage of the tax credits.

Also, $35k EVs do not yet have enough range to be the "one" car in the family. Instead, affordable EVs are the "second" car. They are perfect for everyday transportation. Long road trips, 400+ miles, are still best done in an ICE vehicle (conventional, hybrid, phev). As battery technology improves, even the $35k EVs will have 300 to 400 mile range on a single charge.

If one knows how to do simple math, the $35k Model 3 is pretty much under $30k after rebates and credit and yes, rebates are what you WILL get in a few weeks after delivery!


JT

 

[Lars]

If one knows how to do simple math, the $35k Model 3 is pretty much under $30k after rebates and credit and yes, rebates are what you WILL get in a few weeks after delivery!


JT

Hi Jimmy, you must leave in California. Oherweise your numbers just don't add up. The availability of rebates, or other incentives are geographically spotty. I bet this is correct even in the states. Here in Ontario the good folks decided to change the government last year and elected a Trump mine-me. These new guys don't buy into the idea of climate change, clean air, clean water etc. So the first thing they canned was the cap and trade. The revenue from cap and trade was used to cover the $14,000 rebate helping EV buyers - and financing air conditioning schools and renovating old buildings etc. The bottom line is that now with the rebate gone "middle class" folks can't shell out the dollars for US$35k+ EVs - of any kind not just Tesla. Our enrty price in Canadian dollars is 49,000! Far over the cost of a Camry or an Accord. If I could take the 14k off the 49k I could buy a copy of the entry level Tesla.

Sorry for the rant.

Lars

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

...watch the prices to drop in a not so distant future.

Sure, this was inevitable. As more and more models of EVs are put into production, both the economy of scale and competition will drive down prices. It's great to see this finally happening!

It's an exciting time to be an EV enthusiast.

Up the EV revolution -- the rEVolution!

​

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Hi Jimmy, you must leave in California. Oherweise your numbers just don't add up.

Actually, a very recent InsideEVs News article said that the State of Colorado has a higher State rebate than California's tax credit. And if I recall correctly what the article said, Colorado's is a real rebate, not a mere tax credit; you don't have to wait for your tax return to take advantage of it!

"How To Buy A New Tesla Model 3 For Just $26,250"

 

[bwilson4web]

I live in Alabama, for my wife (she likes a warm climate), because I like:

• chicken fried steak - 'Do you want white or brown gravy?'
• fried okra - not that greasy breaded cr*p but cooked to the edge of black
• grits or rice - 'Cheese, buttered, honey, or sausage?'
• unsweet tea year round or the base of an Arnold Palmer
• Dr Pepper in the Coke machine
• Southern gals who carry a pistol in their purse (after first marriage and children)
• locking the car in zucchini season
• BBQ - slow smoked, lightly offered with hot sauce, beans with meat, okra, and white bread
• people speaking slow enough to think befor speaking
• in a valley without the wind and dust of Oklahoma

Bob Wilson

 

[Lars]

We have snow, melt, more snow, melt and a little more snow but very few tornadoes and landslides.

Sorry for the rant. But it felt soo good.

 

[Lars]

Sure, this was inevitable. As more and more models of EVs are put into production, both the economy of scale and competition will drive down prices. It's great to see this finally happening!

It's an exciting time to be an EV enthusiast.

Up the EV revolution -- the rEVolution!

​

Any bets on when will Elon stop offering the current entry level $35K and drop the price of of the $37K+ model to 35k? 3 months 6 months??

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Any bets on when will Elon stop offering the current entry level $35K and drop the price of of the $37K+ model to 35k? 3 months 6 months??

I would be very surprised if that happens within 3 months. Even 6 months would surprise me.

* * * * *

I think it's questionable whether or not this plan to close all the Tesla Stores is going to be a benefit to Tesla. Sure, they are now offering what they call a "7 day test drive" in that you can return the car for a full refund up to 7 days, but that's really not the same as being able to go down to your local auto dealers and try out different cars with test drives before making a buying decision.

Now, that doesn't mean I predict that this won't work for Tesla. I won't be surprised if it does. But I also won't be surprised if Tesla winds up re-opening some of those Tesla stores.

Or, perhaps Tesla will start offering test drives thru the Tesla service centers, which certainly won't be closing! Since service centers already have to have some Tesla cars used as loaners, I suppose that could be a possibility. It would require scheduling test drives in advance, but then I think Tesla already does that in at least some locations.

​

 

[Roy_H]

I don't think Tesla said they would close all stores, just ones that were not deemed profitable. Service centers are still open, and I believe you can arrange to take a test drive there.

 

[Lars]

I don't think Tesla said they would close all stores, just ones that were not deemed profitable. Service centers are still open, and I believe you can arrange to take a test drive there.

I agree. Right now the details are still fuzzy. There must be a way to arrange test drives. The service centres would provide an ideal solution.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I don't think Tesla said they would close all stores, just ones that were not deemed profitable. Service centers are still open, and I believe you can arrange to take a test drive there.

What Tesla said is that all sales will be online. That means there won't be any Tesla Stores, period. A "small number" of stores will be converted to Galleries -- that is, showrooms which don't sell cars -- and the rest will be closed. There wasn't any ambiguity there. Now, that doesn't mean that Tesla's plans can't or won't change, but that is the plan that was announced.

Quoting from the press release:

Shifting all sales online, combined with other ongoing cost efficiencies, will enable us to lower all vehicle prices by about 6% on average, allowing us to achieve the $35,000 Model 3 price point earlier than we expected. Over the next few months, we will be winding down many of our stores, with a small number of stores in high-traffic locations remaining as galleries, showcases and Tesla information centers. The important thing for customers in the United States to understand is that, with online sales, anyone in any state can quickly and easily buy a Tesla.

​

 

[interestedinEV]

Quite a few state ban Tesla from having showrooms or service centers in that state. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes ). This includes Texas and Michigan. So not having dealerships in those states has not hurt Tesla, people in those states still can purchase Tesla on the internet due to the commerce clause. Interstate commerce is regulated at the Federal level, not State level. So to an extent, Tesla stores were more from branding and marketing, rather than selling. I know a couple who drove a Model 3 for the first time when they went to the showroom to pick up the car, they had never had test drive.

So it is just a question of changing buyer behavior, which has cost to it, but may not be significant as many people are use to it. Again, I am skeptical that marketing expense reduction by closing stores will save 6% but it will save something. However in an era where corporate America is chasing pennies, every bit helps.

Some people may not want to buy without a test drive. In that case, I have a suggestion for Tesla (if they have not thought of it, but I will guess they have). Rope in the Tesla Owners clubs to help. If a person wants a test drive, make a request on one of the Tesla Bulletin Boards and some one in your area will volunteer to give you a test ride. Instead of getting a test drive with a pushy salesperson, you get it from an enthusiastic neighbor and that might be even more powerful.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Quite a few state ban Tesla from having showrooms or service centers in that state. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes ). This includes Texas and Michigan. So not having dealerships in those states has not hurt Tesla, people in those states still can purchase Tesla on the internet due to the commerce clause.

Tesla clearly does not agree, since it was fighting hard against those State laws restricting it from doing direct sales in certain States. Tesla was even spending money on lobbying State legislatures in such States.

That's one thing that Tesla won't have to waste money on anymore -- lobbying legislatures in recalcitrant States.

Interstate commerce is regulated at the Federal level, not State level.

There seems to be a common misconception here. The interstate commerce clause of the U.S. Constitution regulates only commerce and relations between the various States, not commerce within a State's borders. If that wasn't true, there could not be -- for example -- "blue" laws restricting sales of liquor on Sundays in some States, but not others. Likewise, States are perfectly within their legal rights to restrict or ban sales of Tesla cars within their own borders. What States can not do, if my layman's understanding of the law is correct, is ban Tesla cars bought and licensed in other States from entering their State and driving on their public roads.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Rope in the Tesla Owners clubs to help. If a person wants a test drive, make a request on one of the Tesla Bulletin Boards and some one in your area will volunteer to give you a test ride.

It's going to be interesting to see how much, if any, official notice and/or cooperation that Tesla gives to the various Tesla owners clubs around the country regarding giving test drives (or at least ride-alongs) to potential customers. Obviously Tesla is aware of the potential there, since they did use the network of such clubs to help with deliveries at the end of the third quarter in 2018.

But Tesla has run into problems in some States with "bird dogging" laws, which restrict using people who aren't customers to promote sales.

For example:

Virginia law prohibits dealers and salespersons from compensating anyone in connection with the sale of a motor vehicle who is not either licensed as a motor vehicle dealer or a salesperson. ... So anyone who provides leads (prospective customers) to a dealer is playing the role of a “bird dog”.
​

Perhaps Tesla can take advantage of local clubs to give test drives, so long as nobody is compensated in any way for their time and trouble. Or perhaps not. And that may vary by State, which is a situation that I suspect Tesla wants to avoid going forward. It would certainly simplify things for Tesla if they can use the same procedure in all 50 States, instead of having to have State by State rules and regulations, as they do for selling cars thru the Tesla Stores.

​

 

[interestedinEV]

Tesla clearly does not agree, since it was fighting hard against those State laws restricting it from doing direct sales in certain States. Tesla was even spending money on lobbying State legislatures in such States.

That's one thing that Tesla won't have to waste money on anymore -- lobbying legislatures in recalcitrant States.

My take is a little different. Tesla was battling the states, then the realized that many people were buying on the internet and it was not worth the fight and the money. Maybe that is where the 6% savings come from. They do not have to spend the lobbying money. They realized that they do not need showrooms at this stage due to internet purchasing and so gave up the battle or are not going to fight it vigorously.

There seems to be a common misconception here. The interstate commerce clause of the U.S. Constitution regulates only commerce and relations between the various States, not commerce within a State's borders. If that wasn't true, there could not be -- for example -- "blue" laws restricting sales of liquor on Sundays in some States, but not others. Likewise, States are perfectly within their legal rights to restrict or ban sales of Tesla cars within their own borders. What States can not do, if my layman's understanding of the law is correct, is ban Tesla cars bought and licensed in other States from entering their State and driving on their public roads.

I am not sure what the misconception you are talking about. State can regulate commerce within the state. They can prevent Tesla from opening a dealership in the state.

What they cannot do is prevent someone from buying a car from Tesla located in California and that is what I said. Tesla could not sell in many states directly but people in those states were still able to buy a Tesla due to the Commerce Clause, as they were buying on the internet. So I can buy a Tesla while living in Texas, as long as I am doing on the internet. It is delivered to my door, though I have to get it registered myself as there is no dealer to do it. I have to call the banks and get a loan as there is no local dealer or showroom to do it for me. If I am willing to live with those minor inconveniences, states cannot prevent me from buying and operating a Tesla in that state and that why the commerce clause comes in. So Tesla found that lack of dealer showrooms was not a showstopper and decided to get rid of most of them.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

I am not sure what the misconception you are talking about. State can regulate commerce within the state. They can prevent Tesla from opening a dealership in the state.

Hmmm... I apologize, you're correct. I didn't read your original comment closely enough before responding.