Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

@TeslaInvestors here is the simple concept that I have learned over the years, that there can be multiple points of view and they be all right and partially right. Popular Mechanics says that Elon is a visionary and he is being attacked for being one and many of the attacks are not warranted. I do not see anything wrong with that.

Lora Koldany says that Elon is a micro-manager and that has caused self inflicted injuries. By all accounts, that is consistent and believable. A lot of the visionaries, (Frederick Taylor, Walt Disney, Steve Jobs, Henry Ford) were micro-managers.

So being a visionary and micromanager are not mutually exclusive. Being a loud mouth and being creative are not mutually exclusive. Having great ideas and making mistakes on the way are not mutually exclusive. Elon is a complex personality. Yes he has an very big ego, but he has great things to show for it. The challenge is going to be his ability to transit from being both operational boss and strategic visionary to the strategic visionary and leave someone else to be the operational boss.

Bill Gates became Chief Software Architect leaving Steve Balmer in charge (did not work out too well as share price stagnated but with the new guy Microsoft seems to be going great guns, Bill is still around). Google venture capitalists insisted that Eric Schmidt mind the shop till the founders could take over. Mark Zuckerberg has Sheryl Sandberg. So there are models that Elon can follow to keep the vision but not the erratic behavior. Unlike Elon apologists, I do not think that the Tesla path is rosy, but unlike the naysayers, I do not believe that it is gloom and doom. I believe that Tesla has a path to continued success but it would require some growing up on the part of Elon. While, I do not know it will happen, I am cautiously optimistic.
 
I much prefer the original:
TeslaInvestors said:
Oh my my! This must cause too much ain for the tesla buuls,, seeings Tesla's dirty linens being washed on the street. ...
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Had you read the original comments, "Yet the things I admire about Musk still come through." Perhaps it is understanding that is missing.

Brilliant people pursue visions seldom shared by the usual characters. As such, they are demanding, exacting and sometimes rascals. Thomas Edison once promised a prize for solving a problem and Nichola Tesla brought the solution ... Edison reneged on the prize. Just the ones I've had the pleasure of working with were well worth the time.

Bob Wilson
 
interestedinEV said:
@TeslaInvestors here is the simple concept that I have learned over the years, that there can be multiple points of view and they be all right and partially right. Popular Mechanics says that Elon is a visionary and he is being attacked for being one and many of the attacks are not warranted. I do not see anything wrong with that.

Lora Koldany says that Elon is a micro-manager and that has caused self inflicted injuries. By all accounts, that is consistent and believable. A lot of the visionaries, (Frederick Taylor, Walt Disney, Steve Jobs, Henry Ford) were micro-managers.
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"Popular Mechanics says that Elon is a visionary and he is being attacked for being one"
-> This must be a joke. Whichever Tesla apologist wrote that piece must be totally out of his mind. Elon is being attacked for violating the laws and committing fraudulent activities, not because he has some "visions".
* Defrauded state of Oregon, Oregon clawed back $13.xx M . Now, Oregon is at fault because it ruined ELon's vision that he could get by with defrauding a state?
* Germany clawed back 2000 eur from buyers that Tesla tricked out of them. So, Germany is now at fault for killing Elon's visions that he could freely commit such fraud without any repercussion?
* SEC tapped him on the shoulder for fooling around and lying to investors about going private at $420. So now SEC is the culprit and Elon is the victim?
* Elon sold vaporware FSD to customers 2 years ago. Many are near the end or already ended their lease without ever experiencing FSD. (...). ELon also lied about AP 2.0.
* Elon defrauded bond purchasers last year saying he will produce 5000 cars a week by end of 2017 and will produce 100k-200k model 3 in 2017. ...
* Showed fake solar roof tiles to buy Solarcity
* Elon proposed some ridiculous half-assed idea ( intern's idea?) about electric pods going in a vacuum tube. So anyone who criticizes this is attacking him for veing a visionary?

The list goes on and on. It's like the murderer saying. "The world is against me. I thought I could go on killing as I had these visions..." :) With this kind of logic, one can justify anything.

"Lora Kolodny says that Elon is a micro-manager and that has caused self inflicted injuries"
-> No, Lora just reported what some Tesla employees said.

Oh, and for the record. Elon Musk isn't a Tesla founder either. But he did save the company in its early days, and he does know how to play along with the Wall St analysts. So the Tesla vision is really not his.
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
"Popular Mechanics says that Elon is a visionary and he is being attacked for being one"
-> This must be a joke. Whichever Tesla apologist wrote that piece must be totally out of his mind. Elon is being attacked for violating the laws and committing fraudulent activities, not because he has some "visions".
* Defrauded state of Oregon, Oregon clawed back $13.xx M . ................Oh, and for the record. Elon Musk isn't a Tesla founder either. But he did save the company in its early days, and he does know how to play along with the Wall St analysts. So the Tesla vision is really not his.
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I have not checked all but I will concede that the statements you have made about legal action against Tesla are true. Statements of vaporware while true, are not necessarily illegal nor right. However, do you have the same anger against Microsoft and so many other companies that made a science of doing this.

I will also concede that Elon has pushed the envelope a lot to the point of breaking the , and so has a lot of other companies. I did a quick google search and found this article which talks about other companies that are well known and have been fined. There may be additional instances where bravado, bullying tactics, lobbying and sharp lawyers have prevented any action. Where is the anger against those companies. If your desires are granted and Elon leaves, then the traditional gas-mobile companies (Oil companies, traditional ICE manufacturers, car dealership industry, etc.) have won and the environment has lost. Some of us may be willing to forgive Elon for his trespasses given his other contribution to the greater good. Could he go to far that I could not forgive him? Yes and he is pretty close to the point, but in my books he has not crossed the line. I am sure you disagree and that is quite fine.

https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2018/01/dark-side-of-worlds-most-admired-companies/
 
TeslaInvestors said:
"Popular Mechanics says that Elon is a visionary and he is being attacked for being one"
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Great slogan, works for me.

All of the legal cases, Musk pays the fine and moves on ... still moving. When he fights, he wins.

The last Tesla inventory report, 3 days. His customers love their cars. Teslas are the benchmark the rest aspire after Tesla decimated the high end, luxury market. Then there is that other thing, his CEO success.

BTW, what happened to Martin Tripp? Google can’t find anything.

Bob Wilson
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Whichever Tesla apologist wrote that piece must be totally out of his mind.
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Hey, you're racking up pravduh points pretty fast here. If you get to 1000, does Jim Chanos give you a doggie biscuit?

TeslaInvestors said:
The list goes on and on.
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Yeah, your list is a perfect blizzard of anti-Tesla lies and FUD... aka pravduh. Thanks for that textbook example of the Gish Gallop method of dishonest debate technique. You're definitely trying for that doggie biscuit.

TeslaInvestors said:
It's like the murderer saying. "The world is against me. I thought I could go on killing as I had these visions..." :)
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And now you're comparing Elon Musk to a serial killer! But hey, as long as you're going as far over the top as you can, why stop there? Elon is worse than Hitler! :rolleyes:

TeslaInvestors said:
So, Germany is now at fault for killing Elon's visions that he could freely commit such fraud without any repercussion?
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Sometimes I am literally aghast at just how far the anti-Tesla pravduh dispensers go in twisting the facts. The pravduh dispensers you copy your lies from, "TeslaInvestors". In this case, what you're claiming is so far from the truth that one can't even call it "twisting facts". The pravduh here is more of a case of "That's not even wrong"!

Here's what Investopedia said regarding the matter:

In March, the [German] Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) agreed that Model S qualified for incentives and allowed the buyers to benefit. In the recent development, BAFA took a U-turn and is asking buyers to repay the incentives citing “failed talks with Tesla to resolve the issue.” All customers who purchased a Tesla Model S before March 6 were asked to refund the money. The number of affected customers is estimated to be somewhere between 800 and 1,050.​

So... in a case where German regulators changed their mind about the Model S qualifying for a tax credit, disallowing it after first saying it qualified...

You are accusing Elon of committing criminal fraud, when not only was it a dispute over regulations rather than a criminal matter, it wasn't even Tesla which created the bait-and-switch situation!

Bravo! Lots of pravduh points for you on that.

And of course, you somehow "forgot" to mention that Tesla repaid every Tesla customer who had to repay the tax credit when the German authority reversed course and ruled against Tesla in the matter. So your claim that this was "without repercussions" was yet another of the dozens of lies in your pravduh laundry list.

TeslaInvestors said:
Oh, and for the record. Elon Musk isn't a Tesla founder either.
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OMG! You said something that is actually true! (Did you copy that from one of my posts?) Better sit down and rest; that must have been quite a strain for you! And how "sad" that you ruined your otherwise 100% perfect score for lying in that post.
:confused: :rolleyes: o_O :oops:
 
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bwilson4web said:
BTW, what happened to Martin Tripp? Google can’t find anything.
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Ah! Finally, a subject worthy of discussion on this forum.

So, what are the likely scenarios? Did he and his lawyer settle with Tesla, with a gag order (NDA) being part of the agreement?

Did the judge in the lawsuit(s) impose a gag order?

Has the news media been so busy with other Tesla stories that they consider Tripp and his supposed "whistle blowing" to be old news, and thus unworthy of attention?

Inquiring minds want to know!
:D

* * * * *

Googling the subject, I find this hint from a Business Insider (ptui!) article dated August 15:

Editors Note: Martin Tripp's Twitter account has been taken down; the [purported whistle blower] images he tweeted are no longer available.​
 
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Pushmi-Pullyu said:
So, what are the likely scenarios? Did he [Martin Tripp rjw] and his lawyer settle with Tesla, with a gag order (NDA) being part of the agreement?

Did the judge in the lawsuit(s) impose a gag order?
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Some of the legal updates in September identified Tesla lawyers but nothing from Tripp. Since leaving Tesla, a lot has changed and he wasn't there to spin tales.

I also note that "Business Insider" has been through a dry spell of Tesla screeds. By whatever means, Elon appears to have shutdown the Tesla leakers. Of course this could be evidence that loyalty to Tesla and Elon is more than outsiders may realize.

The Bloomberg article interviewing ex-employees was about personalities, not technical. Only the Munroe article and YouTube had any facts and some light-weight data. I'm not so curious as to pay $87,000 for the Munroe report. I'd rather buy $87,000 in Tesla stock.

My guess is we're about 2-3 weeks away from the Q3 report, on or before Friday, November 9th.

Bob Wilson
 
Source: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/21/18-nasty-tesla-charts/

Pravduh-Stock-Chart-1.png


Bob Wilson
 
To be fair, we should expect the majority of stories about the DOJ's probe of Tesla, the SEC lawsuit, and Elon's foot-in-mouth tweets to be negative.

But what's truly astonishing, at least to me, is the extreme amount of negative coverage over Elon taking one single puff off a doobie during a marathon late-night podcast; a doobie which was offered to him by his host! I mean, the whole exchange lasted about 7 seconds. And that 7 seconds included not only the single puff, but also Elon making a point of asking "This is legal [in California], right?" before taking even that single puff.

It looks to me like it's some (or a lot of) reporters and news editors who are working while stoned, not Elon!
:confused: :rolleyes: o_O :(
 
Gosh, I can't keep up with the frauds and false promises of Elon! Even after the SEC deal, he twitted that people can return their cars for any reason or no reason.
Now, Tesla puts up blog post that it is only within first 3 days. And then, service centers refuse to take cars back. Where are the law enforcement agencies? :)
return_tes.webp
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Gosh, I can't keep up with the frauds and false promises of Elon! Even after the SEC deal, he twitted that people can return their cars for any reason or no reason.
Now, Tesla puts up blog post that it is only within first 3 days. And then, service centers refuse to take cars back. Where are the law enforcement agencies?
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Here’s you chance! Buy a Tesla and return it. Then you can sue him!!

Bob Wilson
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Gosh, I can't keep up with the frauds and false promises...
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Yes, you seem to be very busy at copying and pasting fraudulent pravduh claims here.

Your accusation that Tesla was committing criminal fraud regarding a tax credit for the Model S in Germany, when the truth was that German regulators did a U-turn on allowing that credit... that was perhaps your "greatest" accomplishment in posting fraudulent pravduh here. It's going to be very hard for you to get more fraudulent, or further from the truth, than that!

Did Jim Chanos give you a doggie biscuit yet?
 
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I consider the following to be an analysis of major importance. It's rare to see a financial analysis article which is so well-informed about Tesla's business and its history; it's even more rare to see one so very confident and so strongly upbeat about the near future of Tesla's business!

* * * * *

From Forbes.com: "Tesla Ready For German Competition, And Then Some: Report", by Neil Winton

Some excerpts:

Tesla Inc will shrug off what was once thought to be the existential competitive electric car threat from the Germans because of its lead in range, design, engineering and cost, according to a report from Berenberg Bank.

Many experts assumed that as soon as the mainstream competition for luxury electric cars like BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Porsche and Jaguar produced cars for the market, their experience in manufacturing and engineering would make Tesla an easy target.

Not so, said the Hamburg, Germany-based investment bank in the report.

...

Berenberg Bank has been a long-time believer in success for Tesla.

“Tesla has already demonstrated its ability to outcompete incumbents and their internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles despite a higher price, as consumers are willing to pay a premium for a better product and not just a different powertrain technology,” Berenberg analyst Alexander Haissl said in the report.

Tesla’s success has perhaps been camouflaged by the noise surrounding the production of the Model 3, and the antics of CEO Elon Musk. According to the European newsletter Automotive Industry Data, in 2018’s 3rd quarter Tesla outsold British luxury manufacturer Jaguar globally by almost double with 83,500 sales compared with 41,940.

“This is the first time Tesla has outpaced a relatively major premium car manufacturer in terms of global sales,” AID said in its latest publication

Tesla also overtook Porsche in the quarter with its 69,962 sales.

The German and British electric vehicle assault will start in earnest next year, and Berenberg Bank thinks it will have a pricing problem.

“Newly launched electric vehicles (EVs) by traditional (manufacturers) will come to the market at a close to 80% purchase price premium before subsidies compared to their ICE counterparts without offering meaningful incremental benefits to the consumer. Consumers’ willingness to pay such a premium could turn out to be limited, which puts the competitive position of these EVs at risk,” Haissl said.

“The big price premium also raises questions about the manufacturing costs (manufacturers) have for these EVs. The Audi E-tron or the Mercedes EQC are unlikely to compete in the same market segment as the Model X, but rather with the Model Y. However, we expect pricing for the Model Y to be competitive versus ICE vehicles in this segment, which puts it well below other EV offerings. On critical metrics, the Model X is already well ahead of competitors, and by the time the Model Y launches, the gap is materially wider given Tesla’s pace of innovation,” Haissl said.

The Model Y is an SUV version of the Model 3 sedan.

Haissl said the Tesla Model X has an approximately 25% range advantage over its German counterparts and the Jaguar, partly from better aerodynamics.

...

In an earlier report, Berenberg Bank said investors have underestimated Tesla’s finances, and its technological leadership.

“In our view, the market probably underestimates Tesla’s earnings and cash flow potential, as benefits from better fixed cost absorption, manufacturing efficiency gains and falling costs of batteries and components more than offset declining ASPs (average selling prices) over time. We expect Tesla to become self-sustaining, and consider worries about its balance sheet and cash flow generation to be overblown,” Berenberg said.

“This underestimates the full extent of Tesla’s technological advantage, which manifests in the entire electronic architecture of the vehicle as well as the battery management system. This advantage and superiority should become more visible and important once traditional (manufacturers) launch their next-generation EVs, as it underpins Tesla’s leadership even further,” the bank said.

“Traditional (manufacturers) are likely to struggle to narrow the gap more meaningfully, as it requires a radical rethink of the entire vehicle electronic architecture. The hurdles that traditional (manufacturers) have to overcome are higher and more difficult to solve than Tesla’s initial manufacturing issues,” Haissl said.​
 
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So, this seems significant: Citron Research, a long-time Tesla short has reversed course and gone long, issuing a note that makes for really great reading.

Besides great quotes like, "Like a magic trick, while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed, he is quietly smoking the whole automotive industry," tey address some of the short arguments thusly:

To address a few of the concerns that are common to Tesla skeptics:
• There is NO Tesla killer. Competition is nowhere to be found and no electric vehicle is slated to launch at the Model 3 price point until 2021.
• We’ve reviewed the mechanics lien documents and they are tiny (i.e., $7.5M in aggregate) with none being “critical” suppliers by any stretch. Nothing for a company that will do over $20 billion in revenues this year.
• Employee turnover- Yes, Elon is very difficult to work for to a fault, but that does not change the customer appetite for the product.
• Bad Manufacturing Process- Yes, much of Tesla was learned by trial and error and Elon should have listened to others. Again, that is in the past.
• From a technology standpoint, Tesla is light years ahead of the competition. No OEM is even close to having Tesla’s level of connectivity and “upgradeability” in its cars.
 
Domenick said:
So, this seems significant: Citron Research, a long-time Tesla short has reversed course and gone long, issuing a note that makes for really great reading.

Besides great quotes like, "Like a magic trick, while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed, he is quietly smoking the whole automotive industry," tey address some of the short arguments thusly:

To address a few of the concerns that are common to Tesla skeptics:
• There is NO Tesla killer. Competition is nowhere to be found and no electric vehicle is slated to launch at the Model 3 price point until 2021.
• We’ve reviewed the mechanics lien documents and they are tiny (i.e., $7.5M in aggregate) with none being “critical” suppliers by any stretch. Nothing for a company that will do over $20 billion in revenues this year.
• Employee turnover- Yes, Elon is very difficult to work for to a fault, but that does not change the customer appetite for the product.
• Bad Manufacturing Process- Yes, much of Tesla was learned by trial and error and Elon should have listened to others. Again, that is in the past.
• From a technology standpoint, Tesla is light years ahead of the competition. No OEM is even close to having Tesla’s level of connectivity and “upgradeability” in its cars.
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"while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed" -> LOL, what is this guy smoking ? :) Check my comments above. I never even mentioned this weed smoking. That is never an issue. So Andrew dear is just using red herring to justify his going long.
The reasons Andrew Left is citing to go long are ridiculous. If shortcuts were taken for Model 3 to deliver poor quality products, then its effect is not finished. It is going to cost a lot to repair the defects after production. I can't make sense of Andrew's gibberish. But then, he has been like that for a while.
He probably bought after go private failed or bought believign Elon's go private tweet. Last time he appeared on TV to speak about SEC charges, he was talking incoherently, saying it was built into the prices, etc etc. A CNBC commentator guessed that he has gone long. Now he declares his position and is trying to pump his position and will dump it when it pops.

But here are the Tesla longs, always crying foul about shorts! Lo and behold. It is a short who saves their day today, giving them a gift on a down day on Wall St. :)

Upgradability: No one else needs it. They ship finished products, not half baked alhpa products and make customers do the testing and suffer the consequences.
Succes of Model 3? It pretty much saturated the US market in one quarter and sucked in all new orders too. It's already onto MR Model 3 and tax credits have not even expired. :rolleyes:
For the record, I was waiting for this pop. Just increased my position today on the pop that happened for wrong reasons. Last few pops I missed out because of the stup*** Ameritrade not having shares to short or whatever; the dumd company keeps rejecting my short order with no clear reason cited. Instead of pocketing $20k, I pocketed only $6k with options :) Will short more if it pops after Q3 earnings and another rosy outlook thrown out there by Sir Elon.
Next year is going to be tough for Tesla, unless the tax credit gets extended. And the macro environment is also changing due to rising rates and tighter capital markets.
So, thanks Andrew! Let us know when you sell, so I sell too.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/10/23/2018/why-citron-wrong-tesla
 
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Up +$33.19 (12.72%) on the day. I think this, the $300-neighborhood, is a more representative floor for the stock.

Personally, I think 3Q profit is mostly priced in now, with future increases being more cautious. Elon needs to rebuild investor trust and that takes time. Guess we'll see what the financials and analyst call tells us tomorrow. Thursday could be interesting (or boring, of course).
 
I'm more bullish on TSLA. Today. I'm willing to sell at $420/share subject to change after the Q3 financials are published:
  • There are 2-3x more Teslas and each are the best advertisement.
  • Skeptics crying "Wolf!" now triggers a yawn.
  • Tesla left Q2 with enough money to handle operations and debt.
  • Tesla has credible plans to expand their product offerings.
Will the TSLA earnings call will be 'live streamed?'

Bob Wilson
 
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