Is there anyone who has done solar and it didn’t work out to save them money?
IMHO, a properly sized and properly installed tier 1 solar PV system will always save you money in the long run. The question is how long will it take your ROI to break even. That can range any where between 4 and 12 years from what I’ve read in the solar forums and depends on a lot of variables, some of which you have to predict the future with.
I suggest using sites such as PVwatts.nrel.gov and solar-estimate.org to begin with along with your particular latitude, orientation (compass/roof pitch), and local climate. Most solar installers use the Aurora software to calculate production and ROI which will can be programmed with all the above and specific info on your particular solar cells efficiency, degradation, thermal coefficient, etc.
just be careful that the solar installer you use is inputting correct and real life vs. pie-in-the-sky numbers. Remember the old adage, garbage in-garbage out.
The calculations can be fairly accurate as many posters on the solar forums have attested. The biggest WAG is how much your system will add to the value of your house after x number of years. That’s the one variable that is the hardest to predict (Zillow not withstanding) even in areas that have a decent amount of solar homes. What can be said with some certainty is that leasing is almost always a bad idea and often causes a lot of headaches when selling.
So factor in all your particular site variables and all the tax credits, incentives, and rebates to get your final cost and then compare it to your last year’s electric bills with the prediction of your production and assume that utility rate increases will match historic rise in rates. Then you have to factor in such things as can you get net metering and how time of use and rate tiers affect your ROI. Then you can make an intelligent decision on cost vs. gain.
BTW, it’s best to start with energy conservation measures before considering solar.
Disclosure: I am 5 months into my 9.9 kW system and with net metering grandfathered in for 25 years, and no incentives here in coal county except for the 30% Fed tax credit. So far I am on track to zero out my electric bills but the lack of state, local and utility incentives, and cheap rates $0.10/kWh make it work out to a 9 to 10 year break even. That’s without figuring in any possible gain in house value since no solar homes have sold in my area yet which could shorten that ROI by several years. I’m keeping records of bills before and after going solar to try and convince a future buyer to pay some as yet unknown added value to the house price. I would not go solar without counting the cost and not if I thought I would be moving anytime soon. If I live for 24 more years, I’m on track to save ~$55,000 (plus whatever it may add to the house sales price when I’m long gone ans my son sells it
Is there anyone who has done solar and it didn’t work out to save them money?
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However besides the dollars and cents, there are also the intangibles such as protecting the environment for my future grandkids and being able to tell my utility to KISS MY GRITS!!! You can’t put a price tag on those. YMMV.
