TLDR: Global Big 3 auto makes have announced they can't be profitable if EVs make up more than about 10% of sales by 2030. - 10% is a rough estimate and they don't come out and straight say this but they are dropping lots of hint that they think is the case and this is driving their strategy. Gleaned from recent press announcements and presentations from these firms.
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The global Big 3 comprised of (Toyota, VW & GM) are in essence saying if they have to sell more than about 10% electric cars even by the year 2030 they can't be profitable. Toyota has said that by 2030 electrics will be less than 12% of its car sales even hedging this with the hydrogen fraud. This 12% figure also includes PHEVs. It doesn't seem to include hybrids which seems to make Toyota part of a propaganda campaign to conflate electrification with hybrids. Echoing the same sentiment VW has said to its dealers that by 2025 10-15% its sales will be electric at most, in essence the same thing Toyota was saying. GM was saying that by 2030 it would be about 60% higher on a cost per mile basis on sharing electric autonomy than Tesla is saying it will be at in 2018 or 2019 with shared electric autonomy- that is 12 years later they will still be 60% higher on a per mile basis- fully consistent with their long practice of fail convincingly EVs in order to get the subsidy transfer payment- it is their history all about the subsides of every kind including bail outs. If you plot what GM is saying against what Tony Seba says on likely curves, you see GM is saying the same thing as Toyota and VW, its cartel behavior.
If you want to be charitable you would say they are pitching the best case for their profit but also claiming to be serious about their insurance policy. So to clarify these people think they are going to keep electrics under 10% by 2030 when they should have been genuinely divesting petrol 3 decades ago when GM started with its "fail convincingly" on EVs practice. So this is their fault to a large degree, but again what they are basically saying is that if electric are more than 10% in 2030 that they can't be profitable. But again their profit has clearly not been in line with social profit. Not sure what is giving them the boldness to announce this stuff even if coyly or somewhat veiled. VW could be lying to its dealer network. It could be assurance from their petrol masters i.e., T. admin assuring it will sabotage Tesla and Lithium and grid free systems and pushing climate pessimism etc., or that in tandem with their practice of failing convincingly and telling citizens that citizens just didn't want electrics will som-how hold up against actual consumer preference and political will.
They are signaling they intend to plow ahead with what their customers don't want or alternatively they are saying they plan to do this because they can't spook their share prices and their tax category doesn't allow them to run like a non profit- but their profit was always a transfer payment ruse anyway despite the prevalent market religionism.
This seems to mean that Tesla has, if not for the Chinese makers, a good shot at capturing more than half the global market share through 2030- kind of the way GM once had it.
This will destroy the global Big 3s share price, market cap and market share and it will mean their executives are non-credible. I don't think the American Big 3 survive and in this environment of exposed massive and egregious corporate welfare and this form of bad socialism. I think the Big three in Germany and Japan could experience what the American Big 3 did in 2007-2009, but with less kindness because they should have known better. Has Germany arrested enough VW execs after Diesel Gate- doesn't seem like it especially after that wink and nod to American dealers on profitability. If they've started diesels again maybe they better check them again to see that the same exact emissions scam software hasn't been reinstated. So in essence the global big 3 face becoming the biggest corporate failures in history (joining Enron/Worldcom...) but in response they claim to they have in insurance plan if someone makes them do it like Ferrari in its talk about building electric Ferrari's "we do it because we have to do it..." why didn't you do it on your own? How is that for leadership? All these firms are completely dependent on subsidies (albeit more indirect through petrol echo system,) but a few still focused on quality like the Japanese makes instead of imaginary subsidy derived profits. So again they continue to bet on the subsidy based petrol echo system but project to high heaven about green which really doesn't need subsidies (where subsidies were used correctly) and is actually self-sustaining and not a welfare case- just based on physics and resultant economic efficiency. Continued in next post
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The global Big 3 comprised of (Toyota, VW & GM) are in essence saying if they have to sell more than about 10% electric cars even by the year 2030 they can't be profitable. Toyota has said that by 2030 electrics will be less than 12% of its car sales even hedging this with the hydrogen fraud. This 12% figure also includes PHEVs. It doesn't seem to include hybrids which seems to make Toyota part of a propaganda campaign to conflate electrification with hybrids. Echoing the same sentiment VW has said to its dealers that by 2025 10-15% its sales will be electric at most, in essence the same thing Toyota was saying. GM was saying that by 2030 it would be about 60% higher on a cost per mile basis on sharing electric autonomy than Tesla is saying it will be at in 2018 or 2019 with shared electric autonomy- that is 12 years later they will still be 60% higher on a per mile basis- fully consistent with their long practice of fail convincingly EVs in order to get the subsidy transfer payment- it is their history all about the subsides of every kind including bail outs. If you plot what GM is saying against what Tony Seba says on likely curves, you see GM is saying the same thing as Toyota and VW, its cartel behavior.
If you want to be charitable you would say they are pitching the best case for their profit but also claiming to be serious about their insurance policy. So to clarify these people think they are going to keep electrics under 10% by 2030 when they should have been genuinely divesting petrol 3 decades ago when GM started with its "fail convincingly" on EVs practice. So this is their fault to a large degree, but again what they are basically saying is that if electric are more than 10% in 2030 that they can't be profitable. But again their profit has clearly not been in line with social profit. Not sure what is giving them the boldness to announce this stuff even if coyly or somewhat veiled. VW could be lying to its dealer network. It could be assurance from their petrol masters i.e., T. admin assuring it will sabotage Tesla and Lithium and grid free systems and pushing climate pessimism etc., or that in tandem with their practice of failing convincingly and telling citizens that citizens just didn't want electrics will som-how hold up against actual consumer preference and political will.
They are signaling they intend to plow ahead with what their customers don't want or alternatively they are saying they plan to do this because they can't spook their share prices and their tax category doesn't allow them to run like a non profit- but their profit was always a transfer payment ruse anyway despite the prevalent market religionism.
This seems to mean that Tesla has, if not for the Chinese makers, a good shot at capturing more than half the global market share through 2030- kind of the way GM once had it.
This will destroy the global Big 3s share price, market cap and market share and it will mean their executives are non-credible. I don't think the American Big 3 survive and in this environment of exposed massive and egregious corporate welfare and this form of bad socialism. I think the Big three in Germany and Japan could experience what the American Big 3 did in 2007-2009, but with less kindness because they should have known better. Has Germany arrested enough VW execs after Diesel Gate- doesn't seem like it especially after that wink and nod to American dealers on profitability. If they've started diesels again maybe they better check them again to see that the same exact emissions scam software hasn't been reinstated. So in essence the global big 3 face becoming the biggest corporate failures in history (joining Enron/Worldcom...) but in response they claim to they have in insurance plan if someone makes them do it like Ferrari in its talk about building electric Ferrari's "we do it because we have to do it..." why didn't you do it on your own? How is that for leadership? All these firms are completely dependent on subsidies (albeit more indirect through petrol echo system,) but a few still focused on quality like the Japanese makes instead of imaginary subsidy derived profits. So again they continue to bet on the subsidy based petrol echo system but project to high heaven about green which really doesn't need subsidies (where subsidies were used correctly) and is actually self-sustaining and not a welfare case- just based on physics and resultant economic efficiency. Continued in next post
