EV sales numbers

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

A VIN isn't assigned immediately once a customer converts his reservation to an order. Often there are several weeks of delay between a customer configuring their vehicle and a VIN actually being assigned. Although this time has been sped up recently due to the production increase.

A VIN assignment usually means that within a few days to a week your vehicle will be produced.

Trying to cudgel my memory into submission here...

What I seem to recall, from the not-so-long ago days when the BlueStar / Model E / Model 3 was just a gleam in Elon's eye, was that an order was assigned a VIN at the time it was added to (or inserted into) the production queue. So as you say, there might be some delay between converting the reservation to an order, and assigning a VIN to the order.

Does that jibe with what you know, and is the procedure for assigning a VIN still the same now as it was then?

In order to keep up with deliveries, many service centers are doubling up on vehicle deliveries. They will have several customers come in at the same time to all get the same "initiation" on the vehicle together rather than a 1-on-1 as had been done with the X and S and early Model 3 deliveries. So at the current level of production, centers are making it work. But it may be an issue as Tesla moves closer to 5,000/week.

I was specifically referring to delivery centers, which is a new thing that Tesla has started using to deal with the much greater number of deliveries of the TM3, as compared to the MS and the MX. However, perhaps I have an exaggerated idea of the impact of these centers. Your comments seem to suggest that nearly all deliveries are handled by Tesla stores and service centers. Perhaps the new Tesla delivery centers exist only in Southern California, so do not as yet help at all with deliveries in other parts of the country?

See: "First Look Inside Tesla’s Model 3 Delivery Center"

My first 2 articles were published about a week ago and I have another in the pipeline right now.

Would you please post links? I must have missed seeing your byline on those articles!

 

[WadeTyhon]

Trying to cudgel my memory into submission here...

What I seem to recall, from the not-so-long ago days when the BlueStar / Model E / Model 3 was just a gleam in Elon's eye, was that an order was assigned a VIN at the time it was added to (or inserted into) the production queue. So as you say, there might be some delay between converting the reservation to an order, and assigning a VIN to the order.

Does that jibe with what you know, and is the procedure for assigning a VIN still the same now as it was then?

That sounds pretty similar to what we are seeing, yes.

I was specifically referring to delivery centers, which is a new thing that Tesla has started using to deal with the much greater number of deliveries of the TM3, as compared to the MS and the MX. However, perhaps I have an exaggerated idea of the impact of these centers. Your comments seem to suggest that nearly all deliveries are handled by Tesla stores and service centers. Perhaps the new Tesla delivery centers exist only in Southern California, so do not as yet help at all with deliveries in other parts of the country?

Other than buyers near LA picking up at Marina Del Rey or buyers near Fremont, I am not aware of any other consolidated location in the US for picking up Model 3's. But someone correct me if I am wrong! Elsewhere, the car is delivered to you or picked up at a Service Center. (Also, there are only 6 SC in Canada... I inadvertently typed 8 in my previous reply.)

Many SC are only equipped to hold 1-2 dozen cars at a time. Tesla imposes a pretty strict "car must be picked up within 7 days" policy on deliveries because of the limited space. It can create a backlog.

Tesla did allude to this in their Q1 report that they are looking at ways to improve the delivery process:

"We are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of Model S and X vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter. We believe this will provide a better customer experience and reduce the stress on our delivery system."

Would you please post links? I must have missed seeing your byline on those articles!

Sure!

https://insideevs.com/epa-single-standard-how-to-maintain-one-national-program/

https://insideevs.com/deep-dive-into-u-s-epas-new-midterm-evaluation/

 

[bwilson4web]

Source: https://insideevs.com/april-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

I don't see the Mirai on the list suggesting it is not an EV car. If you think about it, any non-J1772 car is not an EV. This means there is another approach to having some fun.

Bob Wilson

 

[Domenick]

Source: https://insideevs.com/april-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

I don't see the Mirai on the list suggesting it is not an EV car. If you think about it, any non-J1772 car is not an EV. This means there is another approach to having some fun.

Bob Wilson

I think the Mirai can can classified as an electric vehicle of sorts. Still, the InsideEVs list is for plug-ins. If it doesn't have a plug, it probably won't be included.

 

[bwilson4web]

With respect, leave them off. Having a J1772 plug is clear and unambiguous. For example, cheap hydrogen is made from a fossil fuel. In contrast, electrically generated hydrogen robs 3-5 EVs if affordable electricity.

When we see a PEM, hydrogen generator with a J1772, we can revisit.

Would you consider a diesel-electric train or boat an EV because there is a generator-motor driving it?

Bob Wilson

 

[WadeTyhon]

With respect, leave them off. Having a J1772 plug is clear and unambiguous. For example, cheap hydrogen is made from a fossil fuel. In contrast, electrically generated hydrogen robs 3-5 EVs if affordable electricity.

When we see a PEM, hydrogen generator with a J1772, we can revisit.

Would you consider a diesel-electric train or boat an EV because there is a generator-motor driving it?

Bob Wilson

No plug, no sale(s charts)!

 

[Martin Williams]

Is there any chance of Clarity FCEV sales being mentioned as being of interest along with the Mirai? I understand it may be difficult to prize the necessary figure from the manufacturer, but you may want to do that anyway to record sales of the other clarity models.

 

[Domenick]

Is there any chance of Clarity FCEV sales being mentioned as being of interest along with the Mirai? I understand it may be difficult to prize the necessary figure from the manufacturer, but you may want to do that anyway to record sales of the other clarity models.

Honda hasn't been breaking down the various Clarity models, so I believe they make an estimate until we have a source with the actual numbers. I believe they just got those, and so it seems Honda sold 156 Clarity FCEV in April. Compare that with 76 Toyota Mirai and 15 Hyundai Tucson.

 

[Martin Williams]

Thanks for the information. Looks as if it is edging the Mirai out then.

 

[bwilson4web]

For a sense of perspective, here are the May sales from Hybridcars:

Vehicle types         count  % Eff  % All
Total Fuel Cell         151  00.22% 00.01%
Total Diesel          10986  16.33% 00.70%
Total PHEV            11236  16.70% 00.71%
Total BEV             12996  19.31% 00.82%
Total Hybrid          31918  47.44% 02.02%
Total Efficient       67287 100.00% 04.26%
Total Auto Sales    1580000

Bob Wilson

 

[Richard Maher]

InsideEVs has long had the most up-to-date collection of plug-in sales, and so this thread will announce the release of those end-of-month figures as well as those from different territories and other related stories.

>Click here for current sales figures<

View attachment 350

The total in the right hand column of the spread sheet for "2018 Worldwide Sales" is incorrect. The total shown, 304,000 only covers the first three months, April hasn't been included. The toal should be 432,450.

 

[Domenick]

The total in the right hand column of the spread sheet for "2018 Worldwide Sales" is incorrect. The total shown, 304,000 only covers the first three months, April hasn't been included. The toal should be 432,450.

Is there a problem with the addition, or are you using a different source for that number. I can let our sales figures guy know.

 

[Richard Maher]

Is there a problem with the addition, or are you using a different source for that number. I can let our sales figures guy know.

Hi, its a problem with the addition, the April figure of 128,450 has not been included. If you add the 4 months of 2018; January 82,000, February 81,000, March 141,000 and April 128,450 it comes to 432,450.

 

[Domenick]

Hi, its a problem with the addition, the April figure of 128,450 has not been included. If you add the 4 months of 2018; January 82,000, February 81,000, March 141,000 and April 128,450 it comes to 432,450.

Thank you very much for that. I'll report it so it can get fixed.

 

[interestedinEV]

Very interesting thread, glad I found this forum. As a newbie, here are my thoughts.
If you look at momentum, Tesla 3 has the highest momentum both from past data and published reports, let us they are about stabilize at 4500 vehicles a week, that is going to be about 18,000 a month for say the next 5 months. Given that they had 450,000 advanced reservation plus say another 50,000 after that. They have fulfilled about 20,000 of that backlog. Let us assume say 30% of the possible 500,000 reservations, cancelled their reservation, another 30% are going to hold out for the $35,000 car, that leaves about 20000 active reservations interested in the $49,000+ car, of which 20,000 have been fulfilled. So at a production rate of 18,000 a month, they have a backlog of 10 months, before sales drop and they have to have the $35,000 car in full swing. This year is Tesla 3's year. Next year may still be there year but with a possible reduction is selling price per car. (All numbers are my guesses, I have no information other than some published reports).

The only other manufacturer who is on up swing, seems to be the Nissan Leaf. Yes, the Bolt sells more except last month, Chevy also has the Volt. Nissan begun only in Feb to actually sell the cars, so unless there is also a manufacturing glitch that holds up supplies (or Nissan wants to throttle sales), it appears that the next one year is still going to be dominated by Tesla, unless someone a dark horse like Hyundai, is going to come up with an aggressively priced mass market car.

 

[bwilson4web]

The June 2018 Tesla numbers look 'funny':

• Model 3 numbers look low. Any risk factors on these numbers?
• The Model S and X appear to have done well suggesting they were the major productivity improvements.

I was hoping we'd see ~12,000 Model 3 but these numbers explain why Musk would be in a bad mood. These numbers suggest one week produced 5,000 Model 3 and the three other weeks of June just 1,000.

It would make sense if Tesla 'sandbagged' Model 3 sales, holding them back, to avoid exceeding the 200,000 sold by the 2nd quarter of 2018. This could result in July numbers in excess of 18,000 units WOOT! WOOT!

Bob Wilson

 

[Domenick]

The June 2018 Tesla numbers look 'funny':

• Model 3 numbers look low. Any risk factors on these numbers?
• The Model S and X appear to have done well suggesting they were the major productivity improvements.

I was hoping we'd see ~12,000 Model 3 but these numbers explain why Musk would be in a bad mood. These numbers suggest one week produced 5,000 Model 3 and the three other weeks of June just 1,000.

It would make sense if Tesla 'sandbagged' Model 3 sales, holding them back, to avoid exceeding the 200,000 sold by the 2nd quarter of 2018. This could result in July numbers in excess of 18,000 units WOOT! WOOT!

Bob Wilson

There's a ton of discussion around when Tesla crosses the 200,000 mark. From what I understand, they may be waiting on the IRS to notify them. Or at least, that's the rumor.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

It would make sense if Tesla 'sandbagged' Model 3 sales, holding them back, to avoid exceeding the 200,000 sold by the 2nd quarter of 2018.

But Tesla did no such thing. According to Wade Malone, who is heavily involved in the counting efforts here at InsideEVs, Tesla passed the 200,000 mark in the first half of June.

However, the latest articles at InsideEVs on the subject indicate it's not that simple. The IRS has to make the determination based on their rules, and it may be that some or all of the counting depends on when a car is registered with the State, not when it was purchased.

See: "11,362 Est. U.S. Tesla Deliveries In June, IRS Language On 200k Unclear"

So it is possible -- note I did not say likely, but possible -- that Tesla's accounting and/or legal department understands the apparently arcane IRS rules sufficiently well that they were able to game the system, delaying the tax credit being halved until the 4th quarter this year, while still going several thousand units past that 200,000 milestone in June.

​

 

[Roy_H]

My updated chart of U.S. sales using predicted sales of 190k BEVs and 130k PHEV's for 2018.
Much more encouraging than the last one.

 

[bwilson4web]

So I went to the Tesla quarterly reports and a recent announcement of Q-2 2018 to get the quarter-by-quarter, Model 3, production numbers. I graphed them and projected a likely path for Q-3 2018:

My best guess is ~100k by end of 3d quarter and about 70k for each subsequent quarter. This assumes no foreign sales effects due to events outside of Elon's control.

Bob Wilson