End of Life: Model 3

[bwilson4web]

• ~6 years old, ~148,000 mi, 83% battery (17% lost capacity)
  • 2.84% lost capacity per year (17% / 6)
  • 0.12% lost capacity per 100,000 miles (17% / 148)
• 70% Tesla warranty (expired) threshold (13% remaining)
  • ~4.5 years to battery expiration (13% / 2.84% per yr)
  • ~108,000 mi to battery expiration (13% / 0.12% per 100k mi)
• End of Life estimation
  • 10.5 years (6 + 4.5)
  • 256,000 miles (148 + 108)

Bob Wilson

 

[insightman]

What would an out-of-warranty battery replacement cost if you took your M3 in today? Do you know if Tesla uses new or reconditioned battery packs for replacements?

Honda put a refurbed battery pack in my 2006 Insight when the original expired after 8 years. The refurb didn't last as long as the original; I replaced that one myself with a 3rd-party pack built with 120 all new NiMH D-cells.

 

[bwilson4web]

What would an out-of-warranty battery replacement cost if you took your M3 in today? Do you know if Tesla uses new or reconditioned battery packs for replacements?

Over a year ago, I was at the Tesla service center to pickup some underbody shields. The clerk said $16,000 but I wasn't really shopping and am not shopping now. Things beside batteries wear out.

Bob Wilson

 

[ENirogus]

So what is the shape of the curve?
Mostly I understand there is high initial degradation then lower afterward.
Also end of life I would think is well past 70 percent.
I think many would have use for a car with under 100 miles of range.
It may be worth more as parts at that point.
Right now you can buy Leafs with 70 miles of range for 5 grand

 

[bwilson4web]

So what is the shape of the curve?

I can share mine:


The many credible articles about NMC and Tesla batteries agree that battery life is a function of: (1) the specific charge-discharge levels, and; (2) temperature ranges.

Mostly I understand there is high initial degradation then lower afterward.
Also end of life I would think is well past 70 percent.
I think many would have use for a car with under 100 miles of range.
It may be worth more as parts at that point.
Right now you can buy Leafs with 70 miles of range for 5 grand

At the same time my battery has aged, so too the suspension parts, body panels, internal and external parts. There will come at time when the car won't meet my requirements but date and odometer range can only be estimated. I used the warranty replacement of 70% just to define a threshold Tesla uses. This is not a very satisfactory answer even if accurate.

A more useful metric, is what is my estimated travel range:

For ordinary driving, a 65% charge at home easily reaches these 'day trip' ranges. I can go out and worst case, return with one charge up to 65%. But if I need to "bug out," there are plenty of fast DC chargers in range to continue the trip.

Here is another report from the same App:


So my Tesla with Full Self Driving remains a useful car for my needs.

Bob Wilson

 

[bwilson4web]

I found a 2022 Model 3 with transferable Full Self Driving (FSD) on HW 3.0 for a reasonable price to replace my 2017 BMW i3-REx. But upon further reflection, I realized that HW 4.0 was more important than FSD.

Software developers (and managers) hate to 'waste time' on older hardware. So there is an intermediate period when both are maintained but eventually, the newer hardware wins and the older hardware becomes "End of Life." But there is another wild-card: Do I want to be dependent on a single EV maker?

I'm an Apple laptop and iPhone buyer. I've also got some disposable PCs running Debian Linux but only as needed. As for Microsoft . . . need not apply.

Microsoft burned that bridge 50 years ago. Employers forced me to use Microsoft at work effectively holding my nose to the poop:


Bob Wilson

 

[R P]

My son has one of the oldest M3s, a 2018 (bought in June/2017) LR RWD. It now has almost 350K kms (about 220K miles). It is still going strong. He did get a new battery (old one was damaged by road debris) at about 200K kms. He says his current range is still about 500K kms (about 310K miles) which is not too bad.

He just drove back back with his family from Phoenix to Vancouver, BC (kids were on spring break), in two days. He is pretty good at planning his charge stops, so doesn't waste much time. That's about the same time it took me with an ICE car back in 2020 (during covid).

He has done numerous repairs over that time, and there are few that he is not doing, just going to live with it (eg big crack in overhead sky window). So for now, it is still his trip car, and not planning to sell it anytime soon.

He tried the FSD free trials, but didn't like it, so he doesn't have that, just the regular auto pilot.

 

[bwilson4web]

I had my "big crack in the overhead sky window" fixed. But after the second windshield replacement, I had a clear film, rock protection cover installed that extends to just behind my headrest on the overhead. So far, there have been at least three significant windshield impacts with no glass cracks. I can also feel a slight point in the film where the loudest rock hit.

I'm at the stage where front suspension parts and bushings need attention to reduce little knocks. But it rides and drives fine. Just waiting for warm, dry weather to diagnose and fix. Happily, these are parts available from more affordable 3d parties.

Bob Wilson

 

[R P]

He has had to fix/replace suspension parts several times, plus many other things. But the overhead window crack was not a rock/stone chip, just a big crack. But he was out of warranty, and too expensive to fix outside of that. A lot of his interior is pretty ratty, too, but not worth fixing. He is truly driving this one to the ground. Wouldn't get much if he tried to sell it.

 

[bwilson4web]

Tesla offered me $8,500 trade-in value for mine. Since it still gets me affordable to where I want to go, I'm going until the "unrepairable" part breaks.

Bob Wilson