It does seem that the debris is clearly centered around one tapered roller bearing so I'll agree that it seems to be a single roller failure even though I've never seen or heard of one that didn't damage all the other rollers and raceways. I'm a little surprised that we didn't know about this video earlier.
I didn't notice a sump magnet nor is there evidence one is included in the drain plug, but perhaps I shouldn't be surprised. The resting location of the debris looks due to that being a quiet place in the oil turbulence due to the small dam.
10,000 (kms assumed) according to the reply to the second comment.
I'm not seeing any damage elsewhere in the gearbox but all bearings would have to have been replaced to do the job right. Gears are fairly robust.
Note that a single missing roller on the differential shaft would theoretically produce a clunk at
half wheel speed and most if not all reports have the noise placed at motor speed. However it could clunk at several points in the rotation due to the instantaneous compounding of radial forces on the bearing.
One owner in Iceland did have a catastrophic gearbox failure about the same time as this video was made. The FB posts are the last 2 images.
Perhaps this defect could be detectable by checking axle shaft radial play or by an oil analysis.
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