Pushmi-Pullyu
Well-Known Member
I am making a number of assumptions... October production equals October sales, based on the assumption that number of vehicles in transit is the same this month end as last month end.
Given the surprisingly large variation in the number of undelivered Tesla cars in any month, that seems like a dangerous assumption! If you're looking to make a ballpark estimate that's fine, but if you really want to zero in on a close estimate, then we need to look at Tesla's production histrory, and how its three-month production cycle affects the number of cars in transit vs the number in production. For the first month of a cycle -- and that includes October -- there will be a higher percentage of cars in transit. The first month is when Tesla sends cars to the furthest away destinations, such as China and Australia, which significantly increases shipping time, which of course increases the percentage of cars in transit for the month.
For those who

1st month: Priority given to distant overseas markets, such as China and Australia
2nd month: Priority given to closer overseas markets, such as Europe
3rd month: Concentration on domestic deliveries, and during the final ~2 weeks, concentration on customers nearest the Fremont assembly plant. Also, attempts to maximize both production (running the assembly lines 24/7) and trying to maximize sales for the quarter by selling off much or most of the "inventory" cars (that is, cars used for demos and service loaners).
This three-month cycle causes a lot of month-to-month variation, for instance in the level of domestic sales and in the percentage of cars in transit at any given time.