Autoline discuss effect of EVs on suppliers, peak car and a few other things

[gooki]

A great discussion.


In regards to peak car, autonomous vehicles(robotaxi's) won't have a negative impact on new car volumes the for at least 10-20 years. There will be a long sustained rush to build out the fleet of AV, which will easily compensate the loss of private sales.

 

[bwilson4web]

Hi,

A great discussion.
. . .
In regards to peak car, autonomous vehicles(robotaxi's) won't have a negative impact on new car volumes the for at least 10-20 years. There will be a long sustained rush to build out the fleet of AV, which will easily compensate the loss of private sales.

I watched the show too and found several significant problems. In particular, claiming 'high resolution mapping' is required when there are:

1. Significant delays between ground-facts and maps. For example, Tesla Navigate on Autopilot uses the Google based 'speed limits' instead of reading the speed limit signs like my BMW i3-REx, 'Mobile-Eye.'
2. Failure to address how real-time, high-resolution, location data is achieved universally. For example, per GPS, my house moves about a 25-50 m radius over any 24-48 hours.

There were other marginal claims not matching what I learned at the June 21, Munro & Associates, EV conference. Claims that were not addressed by the 'interviewers.' But I do applaud at least letting the 'expert' make his claims, dodgy as they were. After all, they could have had a diesel apologist ...

Bob Wilson

 

[Domenick]

A great discussion.


In regards to peak car, autonomous vehicles(robotaxi's) won't have a negative impact on new car volumes the for at least 10-20 years. There will be a long sustained rush to build out the fleet of AV, which will easily compensate the loss of private sales.

I really enjoyed this one too. Thanks for posting.

 

[gooki]

I agree, I don’t believe everything discussed is how it will play out. But it was interesting to hear from insiders that the future is all electric, and that investors were already divesting from the ICE industry, and auto manufacturers were putting out signals that they’re not sure of the future (long term supplier manufacturing contracts without fixed quantities).

Other fascinating conversation topics.

A least one large manufacturer in China aims to be 100% electric in 2025.

The price target for full autonomous vehicles of $1 per hour is sufficiently low enough that even with a 100% margin, consumer uptake will be a sure thing once competition kicks in.

They managed to avoid making it a Tesla talk. As great as it is to see Tesla lead the way, it’s interesting to hear what the rest of the industry is doing.

Intel has a history of screwing the pooch with their acquisitions. I wonder how they’ll mess up mobile eye.

1. Failure to address how real-time, high-resolution, location data is achieved universally. For example, per GPS, my house moves about a 25-50 m radius over any 24-48 hours.

High res maps plus lidar solves this by matching lidar points to 3D map points, no gps required.

 

[bwilson4web]

High res maps plus lidar solves this by matching lidar points to 3D map points, no gps required.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on this. Of course it doesn’t matter until we get our respective test articles and do a head-to-head test. I have mine.

Bob Wilson