Martin Williams
Active Member
The difference is not a great as you claim. But the point is that if you have plentiful free energy - which we have - then its cost is that of the equipment needed to collect it.
That is falling dramatically, so one would expect the cost of electricity and hydrogen produced to fall as well. The cost of raw electricity might fall faster, but the point comes when the cost of even the more expensive hydrogen is so low that it ceases to be of concern to anyone.
To take this to extremes, hydrogen may still cost ten times what electricity costs, but if ten cents worth of electricity will take you ten miles and hydrogen costs you $1 to go the same ten miles, it makes little or no difference to the driver. he will choose a car that he likes and the hell with the fuel cost. Both are negligible.
I think you will agree that at the present 99 out of 100 car owners buy ICE vehicles which cost a lot more than battery cars to run. This, I think, is clear proof that fuel cost - despite perpetual whining about it - doesn't count for very much to drivers in practice.
The other advantage of hydrogen is that we are increasingly having to accommodate more electricity than we need. Storing it in batteries is expensive and bulky, so it is not done much. However, using it to produce hydrogen is much simpler. You need little more than an electrolyser which will tolerate a high pressure on the hydrogen side with atmospheric pressure on the oxygen side, some simple dewatering kit and a tank. The cost of the plant, per kWh stored, can be far lower than a bank of equivalent batteries. The resulting hydrogen can either be sold to FCVs or used in fuel cells to supply the grid.
Inefficient? Of course it is. But if the cost of the returned energy is lower than a battery can manage, it will prevail.
You seem to think that efficiency is the dominant consideration. In fact it isn't. Convenience and the attractiveness of the vehicle is what sways the customer. Ask any car salesman.
That is falling dramatically, so one would expect the cost of electricity and hydrogen produced to fall as well. The cost of raw electricity might fall faster, but the point comes when the cost of even the more expensive hydrogen is so low that it ceases to be of concern to anyone.
To take this to extremes, hydrogen may still cost ten times what electricity costs, but if ten cents worth of electricity will take you ten miles and hydrogen costs you $1 to go the same ten miles, it makes little or no difference to the driver. he will choose a car that he likes and the hell with the fuel cost. Both are negligible.
I think you will agree that at the present 99 out of 100 car owners buy ICE vehicles which cost a lot more than battery cars to run. This, I think, is clear proof that fuel cost - despite perpetual whining about it - doesn't count for very much to drivers in practice.
The other advantage of hydrogen is that we are increasingly having to accommodate more electricity than we need. Storing it in batteries is expensive and bulky, so it is not done much. However, using it to produce hydrogen is much simpler. You need little more than an electrolyser which will tolerate a high pressure on the hydrogen side with atmospheric pressure on the oxygen side, some simple dewatering kit and a tank. The cost of the plant, per kWh stored, can be far lower than a bank of equivalent batteries. The resulting hydrogen can either be sold to FCVs or used in fuel cells to supply the grid.
Inefficient? Of course it is. But if the cost of the returned energy is lower than a battery can manage, it will prevail.
You seem to think that efficiency is the dominant consideration. In fact it isn't. Convenience and the attractiveness of the vehicle is what sways the customer. Ask any car salesman.