Do you happen to know how Honda calculates the buyout? I can’t find that info online. My impression has been that breaking a lease (even with a buyout) can be expensive, but perhaps that is because people often don’t make a significant down payment.
https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/loans/swap-car-lease/
You should do a one pay on the lease instead of "breaking a lease".
The advantage of the one pay lease is lower cost over time but you have to cough up the larger payments.
The buyout after the lease depends on the lease miles contracted as well as the bank's perception of value at the end of the lease.
Mine is 42% residual value (RV) when I leased mine.
Past month, the 2018 residual has dropped to 39% (but the money factor dropped in tandem).
So when I do the math, it makes sense for me to lease the Clarity for 36 months at $282 + tax per month with $1,000 cash due at signing (DMV, registration, first month, and tax).
When the lease is done, if the car has been problem free, I will buy out the lease (42% of $34,295 = $14,400) and refinance it and own it at the end.
If the car has issues or I don't like it, I can sell it out since Honda cars retain so much more value - I will end up pocketing the positive equity.
Makes more sense to own it in CA since the battery is warranted by Honda for 10 years / 150,000 miles!