Tesla is doomed: Model 3 - 77550, Model S/X - 17,650

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Jul 2, 2019.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

  2. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Tesla's stock price jumped up $15 when the market opened today. Frankly, considering the good news about last quarter's delivery numbers, I'm surprised it wasn't more!

    And for once, we're hearing deafening silence from the hard-core Tesla bashers. Have they finally given up on inventing excuses for this latest abject failure of their monotonously repeated predictions that demand for Tesla cars has fallen and the company is headed for bankwuptcy?

    Well, of course not; that's too much to hope for. I'm sure that if I wanted to dive into the sewer, I could find plenty of excuses offered at the TslaQ site or at Shrieking Alpha. But it's very nice not to see any of that muck polluting this forum!

    Keep going Tesla!

    Brennan Raposo likes this.
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I'm tempted to assemble a 'rogues gallery' of the SHORT analysts. But that would mean taking it personal and vengeance is a dark hole. Worse, I'm Southern with a long fuse to an outburst.

    Bob Wilson
  4. jim

    jim Active Member

    AND the model 3 keeps getting more awards. It was just tested as the safest car .quote=
    Watch how Tesla Model 3 earned its 5-star safety rating from Euro NCAP
    Kirsten Korosec@kirstenkorosec / 6 hours ago

    The model Y is coming, the Semi is coming, the Pickup will be revealed this summer, They will make the model C Compact in 3-4 years, Elon says a plane will be made in 5 years, battery sales are in the Mega watts for Utilities. A new battery with Maxwell Tech is being developed. What an amazing company. While GM and FORD make a new cup holder.
  5. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Well, here's hoping the refresh of the Model S, reported to be happening later this year, will result in the back seat finally getting some real cup holders! All joking aside, that is a rather glaring omission in a modern "premium" car.

  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I feel like 'The Great Carnac':

    • Setting the record straight on demand: price level matters.
    • The Tesla 2Q19 production and delivery announcement provided the strongest evidence yet a demand problem exists, while at the same time attempting to maintain the illusion it does not.
    • I question the intellectual honesty of Tesla's statement that orders generated during the quarter exceeded deliveries.
    • Are orders for production vehicles, or vehicles that will require billions in CapEx investment before they exist? It makes a difference.
    • Sales mix will exacerbate profitability problems.
    As long as Tesla continues to exist, these *ssholes will declare the company about to fail.

    Bob Wilson
  7. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    This shows what the serial Tesla bashers have been reduced to. Most or all of their even remotely plausible attempts to convince people that Tesla is about to fail have collapsed, partly or mostly due to repeating the same lies over and over again to the point that almost nobody believes them anymore. So they are left with nothing but suggesting that Tesla is faking its financial reports, plus taking the occasional snipe at Elon Musk for his sometimes outrageous public statements.

    The little boy that cried "Wolf!", having found that his lies are no longer believed by the villagers, is now crying "There is a demon attacking children!" in an attempt to keep getting undeserved attention.

    bwilson4web likes this.
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I almost didn't care to point to this nonsense but here it is: https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...ts-model-3-lease-prices-signaling-weak-demand

    Warren Buffett has famously quipped that "If you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you've got a terrible business." Tesla finally introduced a Model 3 leasing option, but already needed two rounds of price reductions in hopes of preserving volume. In the 3 months since it has offered leasing on the Model 3, Tesla has effectively reduced lease pricing 13%.

    This pretty well sums up SHORT logic: "heads I win, tails you lose."

    Bob Wilson
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Gosh yes, that must be a sign Tesla is in trouble. It couldn't possibly be a sign that the economy of scale, and figuring out less expensive ways to make the same car, has allowed Tesla has lowered its production costs for the Model 3, and is passing part of those savings along to customers.

    Nah, that wouldn't at all fit the narrative of the hardcore anti-Tesla crowd, would it?
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Hummm, perhaps we can program design language (PDL) how SHORT analysts work:
    IF (Tesla changes) THEN
        Predict Tesla Doom
        Predict Tesla Doom

    Bob Wilson
    Pushmi-Pullyu likes this.
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Another "SreechingAlpha" screed with a curious twist:
    • Despite record global sales, Tesla finds its sales stagnant or falling in its older markets.
    • After China and the UK, there will no more large fresh markets to conquer.
    • The Shanghai Tesla factory will undermine the Fremont factory sales in China.
    • There's no evidence that US sales in Quarter 2 2019 were constrained by cars being exported.

    After a long counting of Teslas around the world, he comes to the conclusion that USA demand has cratered:

    Tesla appears to face problems with demand exhaustion first in the US and then in Europe. It has compensated by geographic expansion, first into Europe, then China, and now moving the Model 3 into the UK, Japan and Australia. However, it's running out of large markets with enough wealth to buy a lot of Teslas.

    He works from the assumption there is a maximum EV market that Tesla has saturated. Yet the USA trade-in cars for Teslas have taken a big bite of the luxury and efficient car market. He doesn't realize the existing luxury and efficient car owners are upgrading to Teslas which means a huge market remains.

    He also doesn't understand Teslas are already taking a big bite of the existing EV market overseas. They also have a huge, untapped luxury and efficient car owner base that will upgraded to a Tesla or other EVs.

    This phantom of "no demand" doesn't bother me as much as reveal abysmal ignorance of the Tesla products, their competition, and the much larger pool of existing luxury and efficient car owners.

    Bob Wilson
  12. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I can't find my post from early this year in which I predicted Tesla's annual global sales for the year. My estimate, if I recall correctly, was that it would be between 300,000 and 350,000, with it being more likely to be at the lower end of that range.

    Well, I'm very happy to report that it now looks like I was much too pessimistic, and that it looks like Tesla will exceed 400,000 units sold, globally, this year!

    From InsideEVs news: "Tesla Is Expected To Deliver Record 100,000 Cars This Quarter"

    Keep going Tesla!
    bwilson4web likes this.
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I'm mildly amused that after the "Solar City" lawsuit became more public, there was a TSLA stock dip. Then the leaked e-mail led to a complete TSLA price recovery. It occurs to me that the stale, 3-4 year ago purchase of "Solar City" is pretty shallow compared to current sales prospects driving todays higher price.

    Bob Wilson
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2019
  14. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    Complete the price recovery? Bob, you for one bought shares last year at $325, as you bragged about, I do not think those have recovered yet, have they? What do you think about the 100K sales? Revenue? Profit? IMO 100K sales impressive, however I think they will miss, Revenue will be lower than Q3 2018 when they sold 80K cars, and Loss to shareholders around $500M are my guesses.
  15. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    You're far more focused on Tesla's finances than I am, Bob, since you're an investor and I'm not. But my guess is that any negative effect of the SolarCity acquisition on Tesla's finances has pretty much been absorbed by now. Please do correct me if I'm wrong.

    bwilson4web likes this.
  16. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Well-Known Member

  17. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    400k cars this year (altho perhaps that's slightly too optimistic) would be a 63% increase in production over last year. That would be pretty amazing, on top of the the gargantuan increase last year! It would be the second-biggest percentage increase for Tesla since 2013.

    Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
    2012: 2650
    2013: 22,300
    2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
    2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
    2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
    2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)
    2018: 245,240 (+142%)

    "To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined."

    * * * * *

    Those pitiful Tesla bashers still bleating "falling demand!" about Tesla should be eliciting nothing but eye-rolls and giggles.

    Last edited: Sep 27, 2019
  18. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Caution my friends. Elon is a taskmaster but often sets high goals beyond what ‘ordinary’ employees commit to.

    We can discuss this if any interest but I’ll have to get specific based on my work experience.

    Bob Wilson
  19. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yup, some of the stories of how he treats employees and co-workers, sometimes firing them on the spot when he gets annoyed, are pretty hair-raising.

    Despite this, Tesla is one of the most highly sought after employers. In surveys of people asked what company they would most like to work for, Tesla consistently appears in the top five.
  20. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Well-Known Member

    I am very careful about my language and never try to bring in !@#&* words

    Based on what I have heard from people who should know, Elon often crosses the fine line between being aggressive and being a **e. As this article says
    Take your ego out of it: Ego is the single biggest reason aggressive or assertive people turn into a**e. Keep your ego in check and watch yourself when it gets in the way.

    Unfortunately Elon has too much of a ego

    The Difference Between Aggressive, Assertive and A**e


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