Official Jaguar I-Pace educational videos

Nice, seems serious about getting into the market, and apparently Wyamo had got a few. But would like to see an actual availability date. There is supposed to be a iphone app but I cannot seem to find it.

 

No question JLR is serious about the I-Pace, and taking all the right steps to promote it, Bjorn Nyland is going to get to drive one next week, which will be interesting to get his take. I hope they give him one for e a week. and let him really test it...

As for release date, there has been nothing said... Factory is building them, but I am afraid most of those are going to the Netherlands due to the tax situation. I have an Oct 19 estimate, and that has been pushed to mid November, but it would not at all surprise me to have it pushed out again. Luckily we have 3 cars already, no biggie if I-Pace is late.

 

Just for my education what this tax situation you are talking about. Do we have some idea of volumes?

 

https://insideevs.com/jaguar-additional-production-i-pace-netherlands/

 

Thanks, here is an article on the delays

https://electrek.co/2018/07/26/jaguar-i-pace-delay/

 

I usually do not post articles from that site over here, I respect the people who run this site, and try to promote them whenever possible. Many of Fred's assumptions are flat out wrong from the information I have. My order is a First Edition which is the top of the line, so you would think I am first, but I have friends that ordered SE, who have been notified that their cars are built, and in transit now. That goes 180 degrees into Fred's assumptions. Also there was a rumor that the optional Matrix headlights had been causing a delay on the high end models, this was confirmed by my dealer. Either way, I have weekly satellite images of the Graz factory, and they are certainly building, and shipping cars... How many is hard to say because of their parking structure is multi floored and so you can only see the cars on the top floor. We need a Magna "Shorty Air Force" over in Graz to do close in recon work. haha!

 

So I posted a comment:

So do we order a Model 3 while i-Pace production issues are sorted out?​

Bob Wilson

 

Thats what I would do... Model 3 is great...

On the I-Pace production seems to be ramping nicely, I-Pace set a stock BEV track record at Laguna Seca this week, and test drive reviews have been coming back very positive... The bombshell though was what Ian Callum said to the writer from Wired yesterday, Ian said "range may vary, but I have been consistently getting 270 miles in mine, But I drive a fast..." Bjorn will get his hands on I-pace next week, cannot wait to hear his conclusions, good or bad...

 

As an former manufacturing engineer, I can tell from experience there are going to be manufacturing issues when trying to ramp up production, especially when there is a paradigm shift. To minimize this, the designer of product the product and the manufacturing process try to standardize and reuse as much as they can. For example, standardizing car platform, manufacturing processes, assembly line tools etc. (I am being a little simplistic). The Tesla problem from what I understand was that emphasis was on extreme automation rather than incremental automation. They were simultaneously trying to do both process and product development. Tesla in had the battery factory in addition to the assembly line. Jaguar has a long history or manufacturing, they do have the backlng of the Tata's, who might have some experience in high volumes also. My guess is that the production problems will be solved faster here, if they have leveraged what they can reuse to the extent possible. One could also expect that leadership at Jaguar took note of the Tesla problems and had contingency plans to resolve issues quicker. Again, I have no personal information, and I could be wrong (which I have known to be) but my hope is that Jaguar understands the need to get to the market fast before Audi and others get in and solve the problem faster.

 

I am new to these forums and am sure you have good reason to have your concerns, I am still very green as to any agenda that others may have.

 

I stand corrected. Apparently Jaguar is not doing the assembly, instead they have sub-contracted it out to Magna Steyr, an Austrian subsidiary of Magna International. It would interesting to see how soon problems get sorted out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magna_Steyr

 

Interesting, i am going to guess you are not an automotive manufacturing engineer? An EV is actually easier from design, and engineering standpoint when it come to assembly. The reason companies are slow to build more EV's has nothing to do with Assembly complexity, or having factories, it is because the battery, drive units, and controller are too expensive. Jaguar had no trouble at all designing the drive units and controller for the I-Pace, and they have subcontracted the entire battery pack assembly to LG Chem in their new Poland factory. Assembly at Magna Steyr is also low risk, as they have been building cars for a while, and know what they are doing. You can tell the I-Pace supply chain and manufacturing system is well sorted as even the early prototypes and factory validation builds have excellent quality on the body and interior. I have not heard one person who walked around or sat in an I-pace that found any quality issue except on the very early alpha hand builds that by now I am sure have all been used up in crash testing. If you want to learn about the I-Pace design and engineering, this is a great video... At the end of the day, Jaguar never gave a release date for I-Pace other then Late 2018, which we are still in mid 2018, and the cars are all over Europe.

 

Tesla has history designing electric cars:

• Gen 1 - SmartCar EV
• Gen 2 - Roadster
• Gen 3 - Model S
• Gen 4 - Model X
• Gen 5 - Model 3

With possibly the exception of Nissan and BMW, everyone else is on their "Gen-1" EV. We see this in the "kWh/100 mi." They aren't that advanced in engineering the basic product. Sure they may be able to make a bunch of their Gen-1 or modified prototypes but early data suggests their products are less optimized as EVs.

Bob Wilson

 

I was actually an automotive manufacturing engineer but that was many years back. A lot of it was in engine manufacturing but I am sure manufacturing and supply chain technology has changed since then. When we did it, there was a lot of vertical integration, now there is more assembly with whole systems being sub-contracted. You even have companies like Magna who assemble the car for you.

I can see why an EV will easier to build. Less parts, less moving parts, less precision parts (no engine and transmission parts). Many of the components are purchased I guess. From what I have heard about Tesla, was that tried to automate many parts of the line in addition to battery manufacturing and that the automation failed. Again this is what I heard. I also was not aware that Magna was manufacturing this and I realize that Magna has made EV's before. I do not have the depth of knowledge you have on the I-Pace. So I guess that the I-Pace will be able to solve production bottlenecks faster. But one thing in what you said is difficult to understand

Why is the fact that battery, drive units being expensive be an issue with manufacturing bottlenecks. As look at the whole chain, if the product has been proven, the causes for limiting production come under the four major areas: parts supply issue (quantity and/or quality), manufacturing limitations (lack of capacity or inability to manufacture to quality or quantity required), distribution problems and lack of demand. From what you say, it is not one these four.

That leaves a finance problem i.e. a cash flow problem, that they do not have money to buy so many batteries etc. and then wait for for customer payments. If there is a pent up demand, and there are favorable margins on the product, why would Jaguar not borrow money to keep production going at at least a steady rate? I would guess battery manufacturers and others may not agree to normal payment terms that manufacturers demand, so working capital needs are high. I can also understand that no company wants to invest in finished goods inventory and that is the whole concept of lean production. But what is the opportunity cost. If I put on my marketing hat, here is what I would see. "We have an entrenched competitor, Tesla over which we might have an price advantage especially if the incentives decrease for Tesla. However Tesla is developing economies of scale as they are increasing volumes. We on the other hand also have Audi, Mercedes and others planning to enter the same high end market, in which we are in.". Reason would suggest that Jaguar needs to build as much as an advantage as it can by having more cars in the hands of consumers as soon as possible. In other words, build market share. There is a small window for Jaguar to build a reputation as a quality BEV manufacturer, there are not the market leader and if they do not move fast they will be an also ran. Tesla is going to do something to defend their position. Audi and Mercedes have deeper pockets then Jaguar and might be willing to do what it takes to get cars faster into the market. To me limiting production to conserve cash does not make much sense in this situation. Or I may be off base and am missing something.

 

Code:

  Source             model      Q1    Q2 Q1+Q2
Tesla press release  Model 3  8182 28578 36760
Tesla press release  Model S 11730 10930 22660
Tesla press release  Model X 10070 11370 21440

The Q3 results will include an estimated 8,000 + 2000 Teslas held back to avoid tripping the 200,000 threshold. So let's back-of-the-envelope estimate Q3 numbers:

• 60000 ~= 12 * 5000 :: Model 3 production
• 10000 :: Model 3, S, X production hold back
• 11000 :: Model S production
• 10500 :: Model X production
• 91500 :: total expected Tesla production, Model 3, Model S, Model X

Based on the Sandy Munro report, the minimum, gross profit should be $15,000:

• ~$1.37 B = 91500 * $15000 :: estimated gross profit for Q3 (on Aug 23)

So I'm fairly sanguine about the Tesla competition:

• Leaf - never understood it should have serious performance
• Bolt - " "
• Kia/Hyundai - we're not Toyota
• BMW - cult
• RAV-4 - Toyota abandoned

Bob Wilson