Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by TeslaInvestors, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Reminds me of the investors' discussion on the old TheEEStory forum. Investors frequently professed happiness when the stock price went down, because (they said) that meant it was an advantageous time to buy more!

    Stock investors -- and I mean actual investors, not short sellers: Pleased when the price goes up, pleased when it goes down. A very easy to please bunch!
    bwilson4web likes this.
  2. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Gee. I wish someday you can buy the entire company with a swipe of your low interest credit card! We will both win that day. And you will have a lot of fun converting them Model s/x/3s to Prii.

    In other news, Tesla and Elon already made an about face on the online only sales scheme. Boy, finally former fanboy Mr Fred sees the light, and sees what a scammy company Tesla is. May be it was the referral credits that kept his real views under the lid for the last many years.

    Tesla temporarily freezes store closures and layoffs in chaotic sales strategy change

  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Hmmmm. In comments to the IEVs news stories on this subject, one person said he viewed moving all sales online as an experiment, and he wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla decide to keep some stores open or to re-open some closed stores. Let's see, who was that? Oh yeah, that was me! :cool:

    But more importantly, Mr. Shorty Pants, I see you didn't bother to report that other Tesla related news from Electrek; that the estimated U.S. delivery time for a Model 3 has jumped from 2 to 4 weeks, to now “6 to 8 weeks”.

    Tesla pushes delivery timeline for new standard Model 3 orders as demand soars

    What was it that false narrative you keep pushing, about "falliing demand for the Model 3"? But that's okay; nobody expects you to admit you are wrong about any of the pravduh you post here.

  4. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    Ha ha ha! Love the circumlocution from the Tesla spokesperson:

    "We occasionally adjust delivery estimates based on order volume.”
    -> That mean,other times we adjust based on whatever other reasons.

    Freddie : "It would mean that Tesla received about a month worth of Standard Model 3 orders within the first week."

    -> Just like the 500k Model 3 orders it received within the first week of April back in 2016.
    And just like the $2B in power wall orders it got in one week back in 2015.
    And just like $2B orders it will advertize on its fake Model Y reveal.
    All these will grow into trillion dollar revenue a year by that math.
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    My current plan is to change the ratio:
    • 40% (KL) to 60% (TSLA) by March 26, 2019
    • dilute TSLA by or on April 2, 2019 to cover the Model 3 purchase
    Bob Wilson
  6. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I want to make it clear, I have NO interest in a Model Y.
    1. I have already sent $2.5K down payment on our next car, a Model 3.
    2. I have no interest in a Tesla or any other SUV/CUV car ... NONE!
    Bob Wilson
  8. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

    No one here asked you about model Y. Whom are you responding to?
    Is Tesla already calling you up to put a deposit for that too? :)
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Darn! I'll have to sacrifice my $2.5 deposit.

    You are f*cked.

    Bob Wilson
  10. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Hopefully, this thread can get back to its original purpose: discussion of Tesla from an investor standpoint.

    To perhaps help with that, here's an update from Citron Research. Once short Tesla, and still a lead plaintiff in a lawsuit surrounding the 420 tweet, it published a report (PDF) saying it expects the share price to rebound to $320.

    I think that's likely to happen this week. The stock made gains at the end of last week in the face of a falling market and the Model Y event happens on Thursday. And, being the highly volatile stock it historically has been, it would be pretty bizarre if it didn't rise above $320.

    Still, it feels overall a bit weaker to me post-420 tweet. I had expected more strength following the 2nd profitable quarter, but it may take improved execution and time before it breaks above $350-$360 again (or, it might do that this week too, who knows ¯\_(ツ)_/¯), hopefully, next time with staying power and continued momentum.
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Agreed! I wish there had been another way to get back to facts and data.

    Bob Wilson
    Domenick likes this.
  12. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I don't know that I an informed opinion on this particular subject, since I'm not an investor and since I treasure my ignorance of financial matters. ;)

    But one thing that I do see repeated a lot by those who seem (to my admittedly somewhat pro-Tesla viewpoint) reasonably well informed and at least somewhat objective on the performance of Tesla's stock, is that the average level of the stock price, consistently so far above what the enterprise value would be, is less of a reflection of what investors think about Tesla's current corporate performance, and more a reflection of what they see as Tesla's potential market will, or at least may, grow to be over the next few years.

    So if TSLA hasn't been as buoyed up by the turn to what appears to be solid profitability, perhaps that's because there is an increasing awareness that the window of time in which Tesla can rapidly expand its market without any real competition, is closing. It looks to me like Tesla won't substantially increase its production this year, because the Fremont assembly plant is more than maxed out (why else would Tesla put partial assembly lines under tents in the parking lot?), and neither the Shanghai Gigafactory nor automotive assembly lines installed to produce the Model Y at Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, will be producing in high volume this year. (There is a dark horse candidate here: In comments to IEVs news articles, Nix keeps pointing out that Tesla plans a major expansion at Fremont. Okay, but Tesla's own guidance for this year doesn't indicate the significant increase in production that Nix's remarks suggest.)

    Next year is 2020, when reportedly, multiple legacy auto makers will be offering multiple plug-in EV models. And from the way they're talking, it seems reasonable to suppose that at least a few of those models -- from Volkswagen, if nobody else -- will be aimed at volume production and volume sales. So it looks like Tesla will start getting some serious competition starting next year. As an EV advocate, I look forward to that! ...even tho it won't be good for Tesla's stock price.

    Of course, Elon's somewhat erratic behavior isn't helping investor confidence. I don't mean Elon taking a single drag off a doobie offered to him by the host of a marathon late-night podcast; it amazes me that that story lasted more than a day. No, I mean behaviors which cause a reasonable person to seriously question Elon's fitness to be the day-to-day CEO of a large and growing multi-billion dollar company like Tesla Inc. -- make that multiple tens of billions of revenue per year; most notably Elon's inability to filter his own remarks on Twitter, as well as disrespecting in a rather public way the SEC and disrespecting the agreement that he made with the SEC, over the very ill-advised remarks about Tesla financing which he infamously blurted out on Twitter.

    Still, reading remarks from various sources, I think most investors still think Tesla is better off with Elon than without him. I have to agree that with very nearly anyone else on Earth at the helm, Tesla would likely have gone bankrupt years ago, or at best would be a tiny boutique auto maker, with very modest plans for year-on-year growth. Under just about anyone else, Tesla would at best be dreaming of becoming as big as Porsche, instead of dreaming of becoming as big as GM or Toyota or Volkswagen... or even bigger!
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2019
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Just having an EV design without battery production and charging network is not enough. Without ore-to-cell manufacturing, a car maker is just making gliders at the pleasure of the battery maker(s). The battery maker is free to sell to whoever makes them profitable. There have been reports that Panasonic is not making any money from the Gigafactory operation.

    Although 90% of EV miles can be handled by home and local retail chargers, the remaining 10%, cross country, really needs a network of fast DC chargers. Yet dealers who have chargers are usually under-rated, L2, and worse, locked up at night. Neither the dealers nor the manufacturers have figured this out ... only Tesla.
    I identify with Elon who like many brilliant people I've known have often been rascals to deal with. No doubt, I have shared some of his habits BUT it is because we're fascinated by technology. When given a puzzle, we disconnect from anything but the problem in front of us. We also are confused by those who do not share our passion for the problem.
    What surprises me are the number of pretenders who think 'any businessman could do better.' I'm also reminded of John Sculley who almost sank Apple. Jack Welch started the dismantling of General Electric when I worked there. Then there are the "Vulture Capitalists" who are chomping at the bit to take Tesla apart because they don't share Elon's vision.

    Bob Wilson
  14. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Looks like Tesla is raising a small amount of money for a specific purpose. Here's the form filed with the SEC. Looks like it's just for $13,843,357.35, and here is the key descriptive part:

    "As part of Tesla’s ongoing logistics strategy to increase its vehicle transport capacity, reduce vehicle transportation time, and improve the timeliness of scheduled deliveries, Tesla agreed to issue shares of Tesla’s common stock in connection with its acquisition of certain car-hauling trucks and trailers from Central Valley Auto Transport, Inc. (“Central Valley” or the “selling stockholder”), an automotive transport provider. We are registering these Tesla shares pursuant to registration rights granted to the selling stockholder in connection with the acquisition.

    We are not offering any shares of common stock and will not receive any proceeds from the sale or other disposition of the shares by the selling stockholder."
    bwilson4web likes this.
  15. Domenick

    Domenick Administrator Staff Member

    Like so many days, this one has been a head scratcher with regards to Tesla share price. After hearing they're walking back the decision to shut all the stores and raise prices back up on everything but the base Standard Range Model 3, I had expected the price to go down today. Instead, it's up $6.41 (2.26%) to $290.55 as I write this at 3:19. What the heck?

    I think it's down to numbers from 2019 Euro deliveries finally coming in and revealing demand hasn't dropped like shorts were arguing and they're pretty much selling everything they make. Or maybe people are trying to get in before the Model Y reveal on Thursday night. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    My counter-cyclical gold mining stock, KL, was down. I was hoping to convert another 5% of my stock from KL to TSLA. Oh well ... there is the SEC 'contempt' hearing due today.

    Bob Wilson
  17. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    "What the heck?" indeed!

    There was a torrent of almost entirely negative comments today to the IEVs News article about Tesla walking back its decision to close all its stores, and to raise prices by 3% on all Tesla cars except the base $35k TM3. A torrent of comments mostly along the line of "chaos at Tesla" and "Elon is clueless".

    So it's doubly surprising to me that the stock price actually went up today. Perhaps most investors took the rather calmer view of things that I did? The view that Tesla raising prices is an indication of significantly increased demand... which is very positive news!

    My reaction to the news a week or two ago about Tesla announcing plans to close most of its Stores and convert the remaining ones to Galleries, was "This is an experiment, and I won't be surprised if Tesla re-opens some of the stores it will be closing." Of course I was as surprised as anyone when Tesla abruptly walked back the plan before actually closing many Stores, but I was only surprised at the timing -- not at the change in business plans.
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
  18. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I think long term, by which I mean the outlook for more than just the next 5 years, all major auto makers are going to have their own battery factories... by which I mean, they will partner with battery cell makers to build high volume factories whose output is controlled by the auto maker, not by the cell maker. Quite clearly cell makers are not willing to build new production any faster than they get confirmed orders, and that's not expanding supply nearly fast enough for the now-exponential growth of the EV market.

    However, in the short term, VW has committed many billions of dollars to secure what appears to be a high volume of batteries over the coming few years. That may be only a stopgap measure, but at least it does show a real commitment, which (other than Tesla) no other auto maker outside China has done.

    Things likely will be different in China, where the government provides massive subsidies to industries, and it looks to me like China has a national strategy to corner the market on EV batteries, as they previously accomplished with solar panels. With massive subsidies, it may be that Chinese battery cell makers can keep up with rapidly rising demand over the next few years, so perhaps auto makers building their own battery cell factories there won't be necessary.

    * * * * *
    Here's hoping that China won't be as successful at creating an international monopoly this time; I hope that at least the S. Korean battery cell makers, if not also Panasonic and other Japanese cell makers, as well as companies in other countries, can find a way to compete successfully. Admittedly that's going to be very difficult, but I can still hope!
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
  20. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    On second thought, that was unfair of me. Nissan has spent at least a middling amount of money (in an industry where investments are measured in billions of dollars) on building AESC battery factories for the Leaf. Sadly, Nissan chose the wrong battery cell making partner -- NEC -- and wound up with inferior battery cells. So, it's not merely a matter of auto makers spending the money to build battery cell factories whose output they control; they must also choose the right cell maker to partner with.

    bwilson4web likes this.

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