ICE car sales likely to be over in 2023

He's gonna say Consumer Reports is a) run by morons, b) bought off, or c) both.

My $1,000 bet remains on the table.

 

That is only Norway and it's a provision that can be changed. The law itself doesn't guarantee the outcome nor is the law relevant to the US market, which is generally what people here are discussing.

 

Can Lithium Batteries Power All Cars in America?

Ernie Rogers


The answer may be “Yes,” but we must change direction if we are to have any chance. Based on recent history, after the coronavirus pandemic is over, US new car sales will return to about 17.5 million units per year. When we get to a first year for all-electric car production, how much lithium will be needed? A lithium ion battery contains 0.3 grams of lithium per amp-hour of battery capacity, or about 0.09 kg of lithium per kilowatt-hour (kWh)

https://batteryguy.com/kb/knowledge-base/how-to-calculate-the-lithium-content-in-a-battery/

Lithium mines measure their output in kilograms of lithium carbonate. In terms of mine output, it takes 0.96 kg of lithium carbonate per kWh of battery capacity. Assume each car has an average battery capacity of 60 kWh. Multiplying by 17.5 million cars, the amount of lithium mine output needed will be 1.0 million metric tonnes of lithium carbonate for each year of new EVs

In 2020, total world mine output of lithium carbonate is projected to be about 0.7 million metric tonnes. The world is now scrambling to find more lithium. There are more problems:

· US auto sales are only about 22% of vehicle sales worldwide.

· Power companies are aggressively purchasing Lithium batteries for the grid.

Some say that science can solve the problem—"another, even better battery will be found that may not even need lithium.” Well, no, that isn’t the situation. No other element carries as much charge for its weight as does ionized lithium and the lithium ion cell produces a prodigious 3.7 volts. Current batteries obtain about 85% of the theoretical limit of energy storage for their lithium content. Future improvements will only be in battery structure, weight, and charging speed.


CONCLUSION: Power companies don’t need light-weight batteries—they MUST use something else! America must vastly increase domestic mining and processing of lithium and other strategic materials such as cobalt, nickel, aluminum, and rare earth metals needed for an electrified economy. Plus we can learn to be more thrifty. The auto industry can make more efficient electric vehicles that need only half as much battery capacity.

 

It’s impossible to fault consumer reports when there are multiple sources. But doesn’t mean he won’t try.

NHTSA opens investigation into Tesla suspension failures

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/11/27/tesla-suspension-failures-nhtsa-investigation/


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First of all, let me make myself clear. I am 100% in favor of the end of ICE cars. I am also in favor of the "Model 2", and most of everything the OP stated.

However:

We have not seen the "global end of ICE cars" as predicted by the OP that was to have happened by now (2023). As much as I would like to see them have ended by now, realistically, it will be many years before we see the end of ICE cars.

The Model 2 was not available in late 2022, as predicted. It is probably at least a year away, maybe more.

Diesel trucks and natural gas utilities: unfortunately, we will probably be stuck with these dinosaurs for many years to come. Diesel truck owners and enthusiasts won't give up on them easily. Owners of natural gas utilities won't abandon their investments easily. They will probably stick with natural gas utilities until the plants become too expensive to operate and the assets have lost considerable value. They don't want to be stuck with stranded assets.

US car dealerships: they will exist as long as they are able to buy off politicians who will defend the franchise laws at state level government.

OP:

 

This was far from the only nonsense from the OP of this thread. Mercifully, he's been gone for a while.

 

Has Elon ever voiced "Model 2" or just that there will be a lower-cost Tesla someday? I'm not a fan, but somebody has to build a replacement for my wonderful, though range-limited, MINI Cooper SE when it wears out. Everybody doesn't want a giant SUV/crossover (it's difficult to prove that statement based on US sales, but there aren't any other small, sporty EVs for sale here).

 

Sadly, smaller and sportier EVs developed for other markets will probably not be sold here. Most Americans are in love with their high-riding SUVs that handle like “mush.” I’m not optimistic that vehicle manufacturers in the U.S. - those that will build tax credit qualifying EVs - will offer “city” cars that also serve to satisfy the driving enthusiast. We may eventually see an EV version of the Mazda MX-5 or, possibly, a Honda Civic EV with decent chassis tuning. The J01 (when it arrives) may be the one - but, of course, with a premium price and without a tax break/discount. Will we ever see a “inexpensive” and “tossable” EV here?

 

Elon talked a little about it in the Sandy Munro interview.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/elon-musk-reveals-production-plans-of-low-cost-tesla-model-the-revolution-of-that-car-will-blow-people-s-minds/ar-AA1m26SK

 

Well there was the Chevy Bolt, which supposedly is coming back. And there's the Nissan Leaf, emphasis on the "tossable". And maybe the (new) Fiat 500e is coming even though it sounds like it's going to be expensive.

 

I truly loved my RX-8. It went about 200 miles on a tank of fuel. I note that because of the range anxiety people have with EV's. The 'RX-9' was supposedly going to be a twisted hybrid with a small rotary motor charging batteries for a basically electric platform. Never materialized. I've always liked Mazda styling and handling, but AFAIK, they have as of yet failed to produce an electric vehicle you can actually buy. Being a smaller outfit, I would not expect to see a major shift to electric any time in the near future.

Though an RX-8 styled EV (with the suicide doors please), would attract my eye, I'm afraid I would never buy one at this point in my life. One of the things I think people fail to realize is that as you get a bit older it's a PITA to crawl into a small sports car. Fun to drive? Heck yea! Do I want to crawl in every day to get to work or go to the store when I twisted my back getting out of bed? Nope, I'll take my NiroEV. The purses needed to purchase EV's at volume is not going to come from the very young, nor the very rich. The "New Yorker, Caddy, and Lincoln" crowd, you know older folks, retired with a little money, or late 40's good job, family older kids, switched over to SUV's and the like for the same reasons they bought the big Buicks, and Olds, and Caddies, etc. Bigger vehicle, safer if you screw up. Safer for kids and grand-kids in the vehicle, easier to climb in and out of, and more comfortable.

The reason 'Americans' love their big SUV's? Man, the big '88' I owned, was like floating down the road on a cloud, it was the car I took on a trip. If you are daily driving thru the Alps, or on crappy euro-roads at high speed it's nice to have the nimble steering and perfect weight distribution of a BMW sport coupe. OTOH, If you are tooling down I-10 thru the tumbleweeds of Texas or even I-40 thru Carolina or Tennessee, or if so Unlucky, you need to take I-95 from Miami to New York, I really just want a decent sound system in a quiet car with quite a bit of room and comfort. For my daily commute to work, I do not really need the nimble precise handling and steering of a low slung sporty vehicle, and the EV price points are going to discourage buying them as a small sporty car for a student. The American driving environment is a totally different experience, the bulk of our roads came after and they are straighter and smoother.

 

One thing about EV's is they are prohibitively expensve to put batteries in. That tends to get rid of the 'Tossable' category. The other thing is they really will last longer on average from a mechanical standpoint. There are people out there retro-fitting 2011 Leaf's with newer batteries, because they are really in very good shape mechanically, they just need new batteries. I think there will eventually be a battery after-market, once we see some stability in the battery designs. Actually to Nissan's credit they maintained the basic battery box design in the Leaf until it expanded with the most recent long range models.

The problem with EV's and battery packs, is you really need high voltage to be able to effectively run and subsequent charge at a reasonable rate. This means lots of smaller cells controlled by layered BMS systems. Then we have to squeeze it in the car in such a way as to not completely destroy the handling, or pig up room where you need to sit. A custom shaped gas tank for a car run you $100. Not so much for batteries, as I have to design modules of various shapes that have voltages and ampacities that need to be stacked and racked. We really need a tech breakthru that can help standardize the cells used in EV's across the vendors. I just don't see that on the horizon, but the cost savings from mass-manufacturing identical components is huge so at some point custom building from scratch is likely to give.

And THAT will be the point at which sales of ICE vehicles will start to actually show a significant decline, and you will start to see 'tossable' vehicles and more impractical EV's that actually can get marketed to the less affluent. MG midget was another fun car. Piece of junk, but fun if you could keep it running.