ICE car sales likely to be over in 2023

Discussion in 'General' started by 101101, Oct 18, 2020.

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  1. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    Tony Seba says 2025 is the global end of ICE cars. I think that's 2 years too conservative.

    I think Model 2 will be available in volume in late 2022. This will be a vehicle better than the Model 3 in every way with minimum 300 mile range (likely over 353 mile range) for 25k with 25% margins that looks set to fast charge to 150 miles in 7 minutes on a built out Tesla charger network that will be available in volumes greater than ID3 and ID4 combined- available in volumes greater than Golf sold by a company with a market cap greater than the rest of the auto industry combined. Also those batteries based on what Dahn's just published comments will be good for 4.5 million to 5.2 million at minimum worst case ranges but possibly unlimited miles if people recharge after using between 88 and 176 miles on average (for 353 mile range new model 3) and stats for motors are already 1 million miles essentially maintenance free.

    Its true we can't know this for sure but it looks like it won't be possible to sell new Toyota or Honda(s) or Hyundai(s) that aren't 100% BEV (non hydrogen- only total fools still talk the hydrogen bs.) So that is saying something because these weren't cancer ridden profit first relics but companies that put the quality of the product first.

    This won't be- oh Tesla is 10 years ahead so legacy can still sell new Toyotas and Camrys from 10 years ago at a steep enough discount. That is not what is happening. It would be like trying to sell a 1973 Honda Civic 3 cylinder or a 1976 Toyota Corolla into today's ICE market as new cars. Worse really. This will be a categorical break worse than Blackberry vs iPhone. Tony modeled it correctly with buggies vs cars but even faster because people are already familiar with cars. No, existing ICE cars don't blink out over night but people also won't keep them long and won't like the resale value.

    Diesel trucks and natural gas utilities (through battery backed utilities will also be hit,) also get wiped out fast- these companies don't continue to operate they go out of business and never come back again. The fossil fuel industry never really was profitable- for 50 or 70 years its been propped up by government welfare. But now it will be clear there is steep ever declining revenue and sales volume. They won't be able to fake profits with this, they couldn't even prior to covid- it wasn't an idiotic shale boom it was a global green boom. But when its clear that industry will never have even fake profits again (as it will be within the next 2 years) their in the ground fake always stranded 'assets' will be written off and the fossil fuel derivatives bubble will pop along with 75% of all the assets on the books of every fossil fuel company and their stock values will decline permanently by as much over night. The boards and the managements of these firms will be vacated and the companies increasingly nationalized. Blackrock won't do much better.

    US car dealerships will fail- essentially all of them- that model isn't needed anymore. Most gas stations will start to fail- they won't become charger stations because its just cheaper and better to charge elsewhere. Fossil fuel companies as much as they try to bribe politicians or hide behind pensions won't be able to convert their rent seeking cost structures over because they will need and want too much to be competitive. They aren't indespensible and will be flushed.

    Look at legacy makes non adaptive responses. Ford defunding its EV programs while doing millions of green ads on youtube saying its the only green US auto maker which is false on its face and obvious false advertising in trying to fish for another bailout when it hasn't paid off its last bailout- Ford has only compliance numbers planned for its Mustang and its yet to be built electric Ford F150 plant looks tiny. GM did the fizzled Nikola noise making and now its launching its electric hummer reveal on the same day as Tesla releases FSD- again its more noise making to try to keep their stock value from reflecting their written in stone actual near future values.

    All they have is noise making. Its like trying to send up a smoke screen to hide that they are out of commission to make their current situation some how look less foreseeable and more sudden and their soon to start hand out begging look more defensible.
     
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  3. SouthernDude

    SouthernDude Active Member

    Yeah. This is pure nonsense. The 'end' of ICE light duty vehicles will not happen this decade. The market penetration isn't going to go from less than 2% of annual sales to ~100% of annual sales in two years. This is just delusional.
     
  4. DaleL

    DaleL Active Member

    2019 electric vehicle sales in the USA actually decreased about 8 percent from 2018. (https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/) EVs also represent less than 2 percent of annual vehicle sales in the USA. Each new EV requires a 60 to 100 kWh battery. Even if every vehicle manufacturer wanted to switch to electric in just 3 years (2023), the shortage of batteries would make this impossible.

    Simply put, the vast majority of vehicles on the road today and for the foreseeable future will be powered by an internal combustion engine. Niche markets, such as high air pollution locations (central California and major cities) will strongly restrict ICE powered vehicles, but the rest of the country will not.

    Electric Vehicles are ideal as second cars in a two or more car home. They are also perfect as a daily commuter vehicle, particularly in warmer climates. EVs, due to weight and cold temperature battery performance, are not very suitable for long drives in the winter. (https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/buying-an-electric-car-for-a-cold-climate-double-down-on-range/)
     
  5. Actually the EV is more likely to be the primary vehicle and the ICE only driven when the EV isn't available or not suitable for the mission (offroad, heavy load, etc). That's how it is in our family. Our EV is getting 3X the miles driven over the ICE vehicle.
     
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  6. DaleL

    DaleL Active Member

    The decision as to which vehicle, in a multi-vehicle family, is the "primary vehicle" can vary depending on thinking. Vehicles which are driven the most, (commuting and local trips), could be considered the "primary vehicle". However, the "primary vehicle" could also be considered the essential vehicle. The one which if it came to only having one vehicle would be kept. The vehicle which can perform all the tasks for which a family needs a vehicle. For example, my wife and I own my Clarity and her CR-V. Her CR-V can perform every task for which we have a vehicle. It can haul our kayaks; the Clarity cannot. It is better for hauling large loads, appliances, gardening items, etc. The CR-V is better at long trips, such as from Florida to Ohio and back. However, we drive the Clarity more because on short trips, 50 miles or less, it is an EV. It is quieter, smoother, more comfortable and costs less to operate.

    Still, last December we made a planned trip to visit our kids in Ohio. At 5 in the morning, with our 2017 CR-V loaded and ready to go, we discovered the 12v battery was shot. If we had a pure EV, we would have had great difficulty in making the nearly 900 mile drive to Ohio from Florida. Instead we loaded up my 2018 Clarity and made the trip without incident. This incident has made me less likely to own a pure EV.
     
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  8. Yes, for travel, today the ICE vehicle can still be more practical, and even cheaper, based on some of the high charging station rates and just plain convenience. Last spring we did a long trip down south and took our ICE vehicle for that very reason. A long trip with an EV definitely takes a lot more planning. What's needed is charging by kW and just using a credit card, same as buying gas with an ICE vehicle.
     
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  9. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    @SD WRONG!

    People won't pay a 20K plus average premium over the life of the vehicle for a radically inferior vehicle- one with much lower performance, much lower reliability and much higher costs and much more hassel. They will simply hold on to their old ICE or buy a EV which means legacy ICE makers are dead in 2023. But I don't think Ford and GM can make it even that far.
    I also don't expect they will be given any concessions this time.
     
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  10. SouthernDude

    SouthernDude Active Member

    Everyone's driving situation is different, but it's generally true that EVs make good daily/second cars for two car households. I think the lack of DCFC infrastructure makes long distance traveling difficult in an EV. I'm a single dude with one car. The majority of my long distance driving is for work (easily 80%+ on number of long distance trips). Practically all of my family lives within 200 miles of me and I don't expect that to change any time soon. I would need around 2-3 more DCFC locations to do almost 100% of my driving with an EV that had at least 250 miles of rated range.
     
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  11. SouthernDude

    SouthernDude Active Member

    Ok, so... When the light duty vehicle market isn't ~100% EVs by 2023, will you reevaluate why you are wrong and open-mindedly listen to people who don't agree with you or will you just accuse anyone who disagrees with you or anyone who bought an ICE then of being a fossil fuel shill?
     
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  13. Recoil45

    Recoil45 Active Member

    You need to change your prediction to 2040 at minimum.

    And our US legacy automakers will be doing just fine 20, 50 or even 100 years from now.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  14. 101101

    101101 Well-Known Member

    I meant to say vehicles to include pick-ups and work trucks and semis too. People will not buy those after 2023. The value proposition won't be there it will be obviously over and never coming back. Its a teeminal point.

    As for the legacy auto makers- they will all be bankrupt by 2024. My hope is the US retires all their employees at multiples of their full 20 year expected retirement but zeros out their share holders (zero- they deserve it as blind investing is unethical to say the least) and finds a way to jail their executives and delist and permanently retire the firm's names- so there is no way their share holders can ever recoup the losses. US doesn't need these trash companies they are place holders and an embarrasing waste of capital. Their legacy has turned to infamy. Their business model was trying to profit from placating over continued climate damage- really a game of trying to profit by undermining the effort to address climate change.
    Throw Exxon, Chevron, Koch industries,
    , JP Morgan, Black Rock etc., on the same trash heap. Also need to start disolving charters. Firms that work against the obvious public interest need to be dissolved- period. Not broken up, just halted, full stop with all their accounts dissolved and barred. US does this but its rare and usually defense related, needs to be more common. If its not social benefit it has no right to exist. We have to move beyond business as a cancer. Business has to carry its own weight.

    I think Ford sees the writing on the wall with this and that is why it is making so much noise on youtube ads (spending money it doesn't have) trying to missrepresent itself as green. Is it going to move its head quarters to California?
    Nothing will make it green at this point, the apparent point of no return was 5 years ago.
     
  15. Recoil45

    Recoil45 Active Member

    Did someone from GM kill your puppy when you were a young child?

    Seriously, what gives with your hatred for traditional American car companies?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  16. I think he is counting out GM a little too soon...
     
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  17. Bruce M.

    Bruce M. Well-Known Member

    I'll bet $1,000 that ICE vehicles will still be over half the U.S. new vehicle market in 2024.
     
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  18. LEAF 380

    LEAF 380 New Member

    USA
    Definitely, Some people keep cars 20 years, someone who buys a Gas car in 2023 is not going to trade it in one year later. That Gas car will be on the road till 2045.

    The cell phone has been available for 47 years and only 67% of the world owns one. Why is it taking so long? cell phone are a lot less expensive than cars!

    I think MAYBE we'll have 80% adoption of EVs by 2050
     
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  19. navguy12

    navguy12 Well-Known Member

    Well, I'm about to enter (eastern Ontario) winter number three with my TM3...and yes, we have two cars...the second being a Kona EV.

    As for the argument regarding the future of ICE vehicles...you'll be able to still buy a new one in three years, but if you can't pay cash for it, the lending institutions will want somethi g other than the new ICE vehicle as collateral for the loan.
     
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  20. navguy12

    navguy12 Well-Known Member

    If the "pure EV" was a Tesla, you would have made the trip from Florida to Ohio without incident.

    From practical experience, I attain a "block to block" average speed of 62 mph (100 kph) on trips requiring more than one enroute Supercharger stop.
     
  21. navguy12

    navguy12 Well-Known Member

    What you describe exists with the Tesla Supercharger network.

    Go to a site (Google it) "abetterrouteplanner.com", plug in data for a current Tesla product and start running synthetic trips from (for example) Halifax NS to Los Angeles CA.

    This data is also in the vehicle...and when routing to a Supercharger, one can monitor the number of available bays whilst the car will "run inefficiently" about 30 minutes back to pre warm the battery...and when you plug in, there is simply the (transparent to the user) car/charger interconnection while your credit card on file with your online Tesla account gets charged.

    Supercharger energy is expensive, especially in Ontario where it costs 44 cents a minute (can't sell by the kWh in Ontario) (charge rate above 60 kW)...so a 20 minute session will cost around $10...but if one plugs in at (for example) 10% SOC the (V3) Supercharger will start dumping energy in at a rate of 250 kW...and 20 minutes is all it takes to add about 60% SOC (all figures based on 2018 long range rear wheel drive Model 3...which I now consider an antique compared to a new (post mid Oct 2020) Model 3).

    Edit: spelling.
     
  22. SouthernDude

    SouthernDude Active Member

    That's hilarious because there's zero evidence to support that claim.
     
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  23. navguy12

    navguy12 Well-Known Member

    A used TM3 with 300+ miles of range would solve your issues...as their Supercharger network provides the DCFC network support.

    Even with only 250 mile rated range, the trips to your family shouldn't be an issue.

    Leave home at 100% and drive to arrive at 10%...then plug in at your destination.

    I spent $190 at my son in laws place, installed a 40 amp cb, 51 feet of 8 gauge wire and a 14-50 outlet in his garage...plus a digital in line meter to track our energy usage which we pay back at the courtesy rate of 20 cents a kWh.
     

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