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EV competition on the Horizon

Discussion in 'General' started by David Green, Aug 27, 2019.

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  1. Aug 30, 2019 #21
    David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member


    Bob, the weakness in your (and others here) analysis is that you are ignoring the revenue, and sustainability of the results. As for your curve on EV growth, Bob, USA EV sales are hardly up so far in 2019 over 2018 YTD, the growth has slowed dramatically, and I venture to guess Q3 2019 USA EV sales will be lower than Q3 2018, look at July as an example? and in a few days we will see August which I expect to see flat over last year. I do not think we have reached the inflection for the general public, its still us nerds that want EV's, and EV's still come with many sacrifices (like it or not).

    Now, back to revenue, Teslas business is expensive to operate compared to other car makers, as they are not efficient at generating revenue per employee, and their factories are not putting out anywhere near the stated (by Elon Musk) capacity. Now that we are well into Q3 we can get some good ideas on model mix sales and see Tesla is selling far more (unprofitable) Model 3 SR plus than AWD, and that is a bad sign for revenue per vehicle which is Tesla's most important metric. Also Model 3 did have a part in killing the highly profitable market for S and X. (I consider down by 40% YTD killed) as the profits are only made when the factory runs over 80% of its designed capacity. You quote Model 3 sales, but are missing the revenue per unit part of the equation, last year people paid over $50K for a RWD, and $75K for a performance Model 3, this year those numbers are way down, and so is the profit. Elon is trying to make up the difference by cutting as many employees as possible, but that also has unintended consequences as we can see on the service side of things.

    You bulls constantly talk about gross profit, but who cares? its the bottom line number is the only one that matters and with servicing all of Tesla's debt, it is an expensive company to keep going.
     

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  2. Aug 30, 2019 #22
    bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Huntsville, AL
    We disagree on what is important. So far, I've only made a profit with my TSLA investment last year. I've not sold any this year and don't really care when I might sell some. I'm in TSLA for the long haul and thanks to Nigerian Prince e-mails, immune to random musings on the Internet.

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. Aug 30, 2019 #23
    Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    You jump quickly from argument to argument, instantly and constantly changing course as your latest arguments turn to dust in the face of actual facts and the reality of Tesla's exponentially expanding production and sales. In fact, you're happy to argue exactly the opposite position from something you argued just weeks or even days before, if you think it's a better fit to the latest market trend for Tesla stock.

    When nobody will believe your B.S. about "falling demand" any more, you shift to "falling revenue"; when your predictions of Model 3 demand "falling off a cliff" are shown to be as wrong as they possibly can be, with Tesla expanding production in China and soon to do the same in Europe, then you switch to claiming Tesla's stock is "under-performing", despite the reality that the stock price has been extremely inflated, and now after falling quite a distance, is now merely rather inflated.

    We enjoy watching your antics as you frantically try to find some argument, any argument, no matter how absurd or silly, that will convince even one person that Tesla isn't growing strong, or that Tesla isn't now financially sound.

    So far, Mr. Green, I think you're batting zero. I haven't seen one single person write in and say "Hey, that Mr. Green guy knows what he's talking about." So it rather puzzles me that you spend so much time writing long, meaningless posts. As Bob Wilson has observed on more than one occasion, you seem pointlessly obsessed with this.

    ...it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
    -- Shakespeare, Macbeth

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    Last edited: Aug 30, 2019
  4. Aug 30, 2019 #24
    Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Since I'm not an investor in TSLA I don't follow the day-to-day rise and fall of its volatile stock, but for those who do, I'm sure you'll find this news interesting if you haven't seen it already:

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk just returned from a multi-day trip to China. According to Bloomberg, the CEO struck a deal that will make Tesla exempt from China's 10-percent automotive sales tax...

    Traditionally, China's domestic automakers are able to get such a tax exemption, but foreign automakers haven't been so lucky. Essentially, moving forward, all Tesla vehicles sold in China will qualify for the exemption. It's important to note that the country's ministry has verified this information on its website, though Tesla has yet to comment on the situation. Since the announcement, Tesla stock is up considerably.
    ​
    Full article at InsideEVs news: "Tesla Secures Exemption From 10% Chinese Auto Tax After Musk's Visit"

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  5. Aug 30, 2019 #25
    David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

    You disagree that revenue and sustainability are important? Bob, good luck investing in companies with shrinking revenue, that was GM right before bankruptcy.
     

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