EV competition on the Horizon

I won't be holding my breath.

We already have 12,197 miles on our Model 3. At this rate, ~44,000 + 12,000 miles in 18 months, about 56,000 miles. How many miles do you expect on your e-tron in 18 months?

Bob Wilson

 

Good starter list. I am sure there are a few more . I am glad that there are so many product offerings and that you have acknowledged that it will be coming in the next 18 months. A few may be there in 6-9 months, most others will be in the 12-18 month period at least in the US.

Here is my problem and concern. There is a lot of hype about these cars (especially range, features) and how they are going to be Tesla Killers. Some of them are not even in the market that Tesla is (ID3, Mini) and ID3 may not even be introduced in the US market. US market does not appear to be as receptive of small low range cars as say Europe or Asia.

The first issue is that when the rubber meets the road, the car do fall short in some ways even though they may be better in others. Range is one area: Both E-tron and I-Pace promised a lot higher range but under EPA ratings dialed it down considerably. Even though the Taycan and EQC claim about 300 miles, they are not EPA numbers and will be lower when introduced to the US market. EQC website still mentions it in KMs. Tesla has been at it for years and has been improving the products. These manufacturers can accelerate the learning curve (due to having a reference point already and being able to use newer technology), but may not be able to leapfrog over Tesla on the first go. They need to keep working on it.

Second, these manufacturers have not reached the volumes that are needed to really challenge Tesla. Many companies are just focusing on California (Honda Clarity PHEV has been withdrawn from all other markets, so that they can meet CA demand) or to meet compliance needs. They may have supply chain problems, especially with batteries. So I do not them really going after Tesla, (other than at the margins) at least in the next 15-18 months.

Third, this is not a zero sum game, that another manufacturers gain means a direct loss to Tesla. The market is expanding, so Tesla can continue to grow as do others.

So I stand by my usual pronouncement, that while there may be dark clouds over the horizon for Tesla, they are still far away and Tesla has time to prepare for the storm.

 

Interesting and hopeful list, thanks David!

However, "InterestedinEV" points out a big deficit. According to recent research "Range" is an issue for increased interest. Most cars on the list above only sound good on paper, as the EPA range measure is the only one that comes close to real life driving. The European cycle is simply unrealistic and in the long run will give EVs a bad rep ... what the vendors are doing here is counterproductive. Honestly, I am always amazed how they get away with such blatant misinformation (and that includes ICE cars also).

 

YMWV (Your Mileage will vary). All these numbers are averages based on some hypothetical test usage conditions. Now the trick is to make the test conditions be as close to real life usage patterns. EPA standards by all accounts are more conservative and closer to actual usage compared to the European standards. Now we need standards, as no two people drive exactly the same. So the actual numbers (if we take data from say a 1000 users on the road) will be different from the EPA average but likely to be much closer to the EPA then European standards. But that does not mean the standards are wrong, as along as they are within the ball park.

Many of your statements are based on your personal experiences, which I will grant to you is one valid data point, but by no means close to being sufficient to make a generalization. You may drive better than then average user and so you may get better results, but that does not mean the standard needs to be changed.

Even if we give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that e-tron should give an average user 234 miles per full charge; Let us also assume that the new Tesla S range is over rated and it should be 350 miles not 370 miles (there is no independent validation or corroboration that Tesla is having problems meeting the 370 EPA range on an average. Some individuals may not meet it as they drive differently but that is the whole idea of an average, some are below average ). Even with this adjustment, it is still a big difference between the range of e-ton and the S and this difference is significant. Audi needs to get the range up.

 

We have driven our M3 through several seasons and I am tracking range and MPGe manually, rather than using the numbers reported by the car. My experience is that in the winter (very cold) we are ~ 18% worse that the EPA numbers and right now in the summer we are ~10% better than the EPA numbers. My driving style is mostly passive, so I should get betetr numbers than more aggressive drivers.

 

A simple set of three benchmarks in standard day temperatures and altitudes can generate a curve like this one:

Plot the three benchmarks and add a 2nd order, trend line to generate the curve.

I use this technique to measure tuning effects on my cars.

Bob Wilson

 

Glad to see so many EVs approaching production. One criticism made of the EV market, and it's a valid criticism, is that there are so few models available. As has been noted, there are no pickups at all, and very few larger cars.

The EV revolution will expand not only by increased volume of sales, but by expanding the different types of EVs available on the market.

Up the EV revolution!

​

 

The European WLTP range ratings are an improvement over the older NEDC range ratings, but are still embarrassingly far from reality when compared to the accuracy of EPA range ratings. Heaven forbid that the European ratings agencies would simply copy the EPA testing procedures!

Even the EPA's range ratings -- that is, MPG ratings -- for gasmobiles are almost universally inflated, sometimes very much so. I'm amazed that the EPA hasn't been pressured to make those more accurate. Perhaps the auto industry lobbies to keep the numbers inflated?

 

Here is the issue. Each customer uses it a little differently, and there all sorts of variables to usage conditions, time of day, driver specific variables, the area they operate in (suburbs, downtown, highways) they operate in etc. Vehicle manufacturers and the regulatory agencies want a standard that is easy to replicate over and over again as otherwise each manufacturer will do it differently and there will be no basis for comparison. So they agree on something that is measurable, inexpensive to conduct, standardized and devoid of reality. It is also driven by trained experts and all other variables are controlled. No doubt, the vehicle manufacturers lobby for a lower standard. Higher the mileage they can claim, the better the sales.

The best way to get data is from actual operational experience of 1000s of actual users , with some control for where and when they operate. The statistical analysis including averages will provide a better reading of what people can actually expect to get. In theory, on-board computers collect this data which can be downloaded to a central repository, which will do the analysis. However, there are so many other concerns including privacy and repeatability. Companies like Tesla may be able to actually collect the data today, but there is no reason today that they have to share it with the authorities or the public. So we are left with an imperfect metric for customers to deal with it. As they say Caveat emptor or more colloquially, YMWV.

 

Like: http://www.fuelly.com

Bob Wilson

 

Very interesting. It is self reported and manual but a step in the right direction. With on-board computers and ability to connect through the internet directly, it is possible that more data with better quality can be collected, but for not likely to happen for now.

 

Deja Vu. We have gone through all of this many times, that Elon lies (difficult to refute give his utterances that have not panned out), Tesla is meeting resistance (yes sales are not growing as fast as possible), competition is coming etc.

Point is that it is not a zero sum game. The market is expanding, so many manufacturers can co-exist. You are predicting Tesla's imminent demise. I am saying, "not so fast, Tesla has a lot going for it". Let us agree to disagree for now.

 

You've been saying that for years, not only on this forum but other EV forums. How's that working for you, dude?

In the real world, Tesla is fast working toward putting the Model Y into production, and will do a Reveal of the Tesla pickup soon. At the Shanghai Gigafactory, the building is complete and production lines are already being installed; Tesla is planning to announce the location of a European Gigafactory later this year. Back-burner projects such as the Tesla Semi and the Gen II Tesla Roadster are waiting in the wings; the Model Y and the Tesla Semi have enormous market potential.

Tesla is an increasingly successful, fast-growing company. It's already bigger than Porsche, and I think it's likely it will grow to be bigger than Ford. "Mr. Green", your continual predictions of "falling demand" and financial failure, going on for years now, are about as meaningful as baying at the moon.

But do continue to keep us entertained with your short-selling fantasies, "Mr. Green".

 

I just saw this model and I think it describes the situation with some of our posters well

 

Tesla produced in Q2 2019, 5x more Model 3, 72531, than Model S/X combined, 14517. Sure the Model S/X was raiding the upscale, highly profitable sales of traditional ICE makers. Their recent entries look more like protecting their luxury car market than competition to the Model S/X. Good for them!

Elon's mission statement is to move us towards renewable energy future. If he shames the traditional automakers to make EVs, even luxury EVs, good deal. As they learn how efficient and affordable EVs can be to make, they too will follow Tesla's lead with lower market cars. That is also good.

In any technology advance, there is an "S" curve:


So we're entering the steep, upward slope in EV models. GOOD! Choice works.

To run Tesla out of business, the rest of the industry must exceed Tesla's quantities by at least a factor of 2-3 and match performance. By then Elon's ability to innovate will have further reduced his costs and distributed production keeping Tesla competitive.

Bob Wilson