Curious sales

Discussion in 'Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles' started by bwilson4web, Mar 12, 2019.

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  1. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    May sales of used Mirai are up at 47 sold, recovery is starting from the pandemic. 11 added for sale. Average sale price $17,189 (based on advertised price). Tustin continues to command a $7,000 premium, but only 6 sold. 81% Toyota Certified which means they had extended warranty and 3 year free fuel card. Average asking price is now $15,508. 11 cars have been on the market for more than a year, mostly the cheapest available.

    MiraiUsed_2020-05-31.jpg
     
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  3. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    June sales for used Mirai in California are slightly up from May at 45, I guess I expected more. Cars added is 80, close to a record. When a lot of cars are added for sale the following months sales are higher as sales people work harder to clear their lots. Percent certified is down to 44% and also average price at $15,469.

    You may notice that previous month's data changes when I upload a new chart. This is because I go back and re-calculate prior 2 or 3 months due to cars marked as sold being returned to the dealer and are back on the market. MiraiUsed_2020-06-30.jpg
     

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    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
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  4. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    I am very surprised that Toyota has not published its Q2 sales results yet. I decided to create a chart showing new FCV sales by quarters and you can see that the sales jump all over the place. Even worse if monthly. Since there is no official Mirai sales for Q2 I have put in best estimate.
    NewFCVsales_2020-Q2.png
     
  5. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    Huge jump in both sales and cars added to the used Mirai market. 124 used Mirai sold in July and 112 added to the market. 72% sold were Toyota certified with 3 years free fuel. Average selling price $15,839. Iv'e been expecting over 100 Mirai to enter the market each month for some time because most are 3 year leased and sales/leases have been generally over 100/mth since October 2016.
    MiraiUsed_2020-07-31.jpg
     
  6. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    I stopped doing monthly Mirai used sales because my data got corrupted and I couldn't be bothered to fix it. But I did decide to put new California FCV sales here:

    NewFCVsales_2020.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2021
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  8. tps5352

    tps5352 Member

    I am in my fourth and probably final year of driving a 2017 Honda Clarity FCV. You've perhaps heard me say this before, but this time I really mean it: I should be switching to a new BEV this year--most likely a Tesla Model S or X. (For various reasons I've pretty much eliminated other options--like Lucid, Faraday Future, Byton, Fisker, Aptera, Rivian, and Bollinger. Instead I'm waiting to hear about any 2021 Tesla "refresh" before pulling the trigger.)

    Without looking at any studies, just going off "gut" feelings and apocryphal interactions with other drivers, my guess is that many seasoned FCV drivers have not kept up on, nor are they necessarily being swayed by, technical/economic debates over driving costs per mile as they consider ditching hydrogen- for all-battery cars. I bet that they generally liked the cars themselves, enjoyed the technological features, and relished in the generous free fuel allotments provided by manufacturers (probably the result of government subsidies). Instead, I believe, existing drivers are tired from the anxiety of just finding convenient and reliable sources of hydrogen fuel.

    Here in the Sacramento area there remain only three stations; and that number all-too-often drops temporarily to only two or even to one working station. Sometimes all three are out of fuel or broken. I get by because my driving needs are modest. But those conditions are I'm sure intolerable for working people or busy families. Meanwhile Tesla keeps adding superchargers; the latest in Davis.

    Meanwhile, articles like these are probably influencing potential new, younger customers:

    - https://electrek.co/2020/01/16/vw-ceo-says-company-will-cut-work-on-fuel-cells-to-accelerate-battery-evs/
    - https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/mercedes-benz-gives-fuel-cell-cars-report

    with presumably truthful(?) graphics like this (from Volkswagen), which I'm sure have been reported elsewhere on Inside EVs:
    [​IMG]
    And then there are disturbing articles like this one:

    - https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/16/what-happens-when-your-honda-clarity-lease-is-up-honda-destroys-it/

    So doubts by both new and old customers about hydrogen as a fuel are reinforced by suggestions that the great California hydrogen experiment has ended up being just another smoke-and-mirrors government-subsidized boondoggle.

    Well, that characterization may be extreme, overly-simplified, and unfair. I am not sorry I participated in the hydrogen experiment. But it sure seems like BEVs are winning the race, at least here in America. 2021 and 2022 may be "tipping point" years. Will hydrogen cease being a fuel for passenger cars? Maybe H2 will settle for a lesser but still important role as a "clean" fuel for commercial vehicle uses?
     

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