Mega Thread for Tesla Investors

[TeslaInvestors]

Tesla is soooo production constrained, that it reduces Model 3 price to $42,900. This $1100 cut is on top of the $2000 cut that happened right after Dec 31.
But it always finds some silly excuse for the fans to chew on. Wait a few weeks for the referral program to be back, with the same lower price!
https://electrek.co/2019/02/05/tesla-model-3-price-reduction/

Who said this? "Tesla doesn't discount. Me and my family pay the same price as everybody else.".
Except, when the company decides to discount the price itself, randomly, after everytime it sells a bunch at the end of each quarter.

A fool's take: "I think Tesla doesn’t need the demand creation benefit of the referral program right now and it’s why we are seeing them replace the incentive with a price drop."
ROTFLOL. If it doesn't need the demand lever, then why lower the price? If Tesla is feeling so generous, how about refunding the same $1100 to those who just bought last qtr and are now suffering with inoperable cars in the polar vortex? That will be a nice token of gesture.

I also thought, there was no referral program for Model 3. Why was it even there if there were 500,000 orders to be delivered? Hmm.

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Well let's hope your hydrogen Clarity wipers work better then the PHEV model's.

https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?threads/clarity-issues.368/page-17#post-6017

BTW, what was the price of hydrogen at your last fill up.

$0.

No, I don't have the problem #3 mentioned there, or I do not notice.
I also don't like the auto wipers. I think sometimes it goes berserk, like when sometimes I make a right turn and it's a slight drizzle. I am skeptic of these new "beta" techs. No time to waste learning these gizmos. My fingers work just fine.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Whaat? Are you telling us the Teslas can't turn the wheels?

Is that an example of your reading comprehension?

...and accidentally put the car in park while driving...

You must be talking about your own car... that fool cell car.

I'm pretty sure I've never read of that happening with any Tesla car, or at least not one that was traveling at anything above parking-lot speed.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Tesla is soooo production constrained, that it reduces Model 3 price to $42,900. This $1100 cut is on top of the $2000 cut that happened right after Dec 31.

The way serial Tesla bashers try to spin quite literally every change Tesla makes as "bad", seems like a bit of dialogue from the "blind man" scene in "Young Frankenstein".

Gasmobile auto makers offering price reductions to boost sales of higher trim level cars... GOOD!

Tesla offering price reductions to boost sales of higher trim level cars... BAD!

I'm glad that Tesla is passing along part of its cost savings in making the Model 3 to its customers. You have to really, really hate Tesla to see that as something bad!

Keep going Tesla!

 

[bwilson4web]

You must be talking about your own car... that fool cell car.

I'm not convinced he has a car ... fool or other.

Bob Wilson

 

[TeslaInvestors]

AAA: Cold weather can cut electric car range over 40 percent

AAA confirms what Tesla, BMW, Nissan electric car owners suspected — cold weather saps EV range. Even turning on the car drains power

 

[bwilson4web]

AAA: Cold weather can cut electric car range over 40 percent

AAA confirms what Tesla, BMW, Nissan electric car owners suspected — cold weather saps EV range. Even turning on the car drains power

Actually, we keep our EV cars plugged in over night and schedule 'pre-conditioning' so the battery and cabins are wonderfully warm in the morning with the windshields de-iced. For example:

​

That cost all of $0.07 to get the car warmed and charged, ready for the day.

Bob Wilson

 

[bwilson4web]

Tip2: My hydrogen car charges orders of magnitude faster than any Tesla supercharger. I mean, yeah. It's like , yea, insane fast. Off the hook fast.
I can't express..er.. in words how fast it is. It is is like if Tesla superchargers is 110V, 1A, this is like, yeah, megavolts. Yeah, it's that fast. It 's like exponentially faster than any Tesla supercharger on earth or anywhere else. Period. It's like, umm, TERAfast.

You may be interested in getting this report:

This Wards Intelligence special report focuses on fuel-cell technology and the future outlook for fuel-cell vehicles.
We include OEM and supplier strategies to best meet projected demand in both regional and global markets.
WE EXAMINE:
• The current state of fuel-cell technology
• Which automakers are furthest ahead in the race to develop cost-competitive fuel-cell technology
• Fuel-cell installation trends and use in light vehicles
• New applications of fuel-cell technology
• Which OEMs are best positioned to mass-produce and market fuel-cell vehicles
• Global outlook for fuel-cell vehicle sales, by brand and region
• How the development of a hydrogen production and fueling infrastructure will impact fuel-cell vehicle proliferation

THIS REPORT WILL BE OF SPECIAL INTEREST TO:
• Light-vehicle product developers
• Strategic planners and marketers for OEMs and suppliers
• Competitive analysts
• Policymakers involved in emissions and fuel economy

HIGHLIGHTS:
• An outlook on the proliferation of fuel-cell technologies
• Competitive insight on relative approaches taken by major automakers toward fuel-cell development
• Profiles of supplier activity and innovation around fuel-cell products
• LMC Automotive forecast of regional market share and volume through 2030
• Industry survey results on the future of fuel-cell vehicles and technology
• Q&As with top executives from a wide cross-section of the fuel-cell-vehicle industry
. . . ​

Bob Wilson

 

[interestedinEV]

The way serial Tesla bashers try to spin quite literally every change Tesla makes as "bad", seems like a bit of dialogue from the "blind man" scene in "Young Frankenstein".

Gasmobile auto makers offering price reductions to boost sales of higher trim level cars... GOOD!

Tesla offering price reductions to boost sales of higher trim level cars... BAD!

I'm glad that Tesla is passing along part of its cost savings in making the Model 3 to its customers. You have to really, really hate Tesla to see that as something bad!

Being fair, demand for Tesla Model 3 especially has gone down in the US compared to last year due to the drop in the EV incentive. That it was going to happen and I am glad that is has happened. I think this will make Tesla more competitive rather than less competitive, as they do not have a crutch for long. Tesla has to now concentrate on what other manufacturers do, value engineering and product diversification. Streamline processes, improve quality, bring out other models including cheaper ones etc. They have no other choice. GM on the other hand is less pressured as they have their gas guzzling SUVs selling like hotcakes and they can a few thousand staff to impress wall street. But sooner or later they have to face the music too. Nissan is content to stay on the radar and sell their overpriced car.

So is there a hard road for Tesla, Yes. And I am sure this will please Tesla Investors. What may not please him is that Tesla is well positioned to take on the challenge, no gaurantees it will not fall by the way side, but reasonable bets are they will emerge stronger once they do not the incentive to fall back on. For example, Tesla on their site claim a lower price after taking into account gas savings and the incentive. Once the incentive goes away fully, there ability to show a lower cost changes, unless they change the top line. And Pushmi-Pullyu is right about the double standards, when GM offers $7,500 off MSRP, either their cars were overpriced by about $10,000 (or at least $7,500) or they are not selling.

 

[bwilson4web]

Being fair, demand for Tesla Model 3 especially has gone down in the US compared to last year due to the drop in the EV incentive. That it was going to happen and I am glad that is has happened.

Source?

We'll have to agree to disagree on this point but we'll have more facts and data the first week of April.

I think this will make Tesla more competitive rather than less competitive, as they do not have a crutch for long. Tesla has to now concentrate on what other manufacturers do, value engineering and product diversification. Streamline processes, improve quality, bring out other models including cheaper ones etc. They have no other choice.

A TSLA investor, I'm shocked! They've been 'sitting on their hands?'

Well we'll have to get rid of more executives!

GM on the other hand is less pressured as they have their gas guzzling SUVs selling like hotcakes and they can a few thousand staff to impress wall street. But sooner or later they have to face the music too. Nissan is content to stay on the radar and sell their overpriced car.

What? What? GM is killing the Volt and their Bolt is not selling all that all that well. Neither is the Leaf. Good thing you are not my financial advisor.

So is there a hard road for Tesla, Yes. And I am sure this will please Tesla Investors. What may not please him is that Tesla is well positioned to take on the challenge, no gaurantees it will not fall by the way side, but reasonable bets are they will emerge stronger once they do not the incentive to fall back on. For example, Tesla on their site claim a lower price after taking into account gas savings and the incentive. Once the incentive goes away fully, there ability to show a lower cost changes, unless they change the top line. And Pushmi-Pullyu is right about the double standards, when GM offers $7,500 off MSRP, either their cars were overpriced by about $10,000 (or at least $7,500) or they are not selling.

Bob Wilson

 

[bwilson4web]

Being fair, demand for Tesla Model 3 especially has gone down in the US compared to last year due to the drop in the EV incentive. That it was going to happen and I am glad that is has happened. . . .

Me too! Your last excuse disappears the first week of April, 2019.

Bob Wilson

 

[interestedinEV]

Source?

We'll have to agree to disagree on this point but we'll have more facts and data the first week of April.


A TSLA investor, I'm shocked! They've been 'sitting on their hands?'

Well we'll have to get rid of more executives!


What? What? GM is killing the Volt and their Bolt is not selling all that all that well. Neither is the Leaf. Good thing you are not my financial advisor.


Bob Wilson

Let me clarify as there are some misconceptions: I am sure that they are doing value engineering, but they have to come with a car close to the $35,000 mark soon. I am not saying they are not doing it, the results need to show up soon in a lower priced car. The focus in 2018 was ramping up production, the focus in 2019 should be on cost reduction and the best way to do it is through product engineering. I am not saying there was no focus on cost reduction in 2018 or there will be no focus on production ramp up in 2019, the importance will be on cost reduction. When you are trying to ramp up production, that consumes you.


Second, GM is not selling Bolts and Volts, but you have misunderstood my statement. GM does not care as much that Volts and Bolts are not selling as they have other products that selling. So the loss in the tax incentive would not be as much a factor as it is Tesla. Tesla I believe is more impacted as a company by that then GM is a company. Bolt sales may drop dramatically but not that is enough of a wake up call to GM.

Nissan is not selling much but they still have the $7,500 incentive they are touting and they are not motivated to sell a lot more. The MSRP of their cars are around $34.000 (fairly equipped) but let us say you get it for $31,000 but they claim you will pay only $say $23,500 after the incentive plus tax and dealer add ons. If they reach the 200,000 mark, they have to now justify a $31,000 car with 150 mile range, which they cannot. So my opinion is they are content to sell a small number of cars at higher margin then get into actually reducing the price and becoming more competitive (also improving the battery management). So they are also not as incentivized to innovate as Tesla. So I will stand by my statement that while GM is also facing pressure of declining sales of EVs, they are less motivated then Tesla to do something to make up the reduction in incentives. Nissan also seems to be less motivated to really challenge anyone in EV as long as they can sell a few overpriced cars, they will feel pressured when the reach the 200,000 mark, which they do not seem to be in a hurry to meet. So what I am saying there is more pressure on Tesla. I understand what you are saying about not knowing volumes, but I do not think Tesla would have cut prices if they did not see something on the horizon that we do not see.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

Being fair, demand for Tesla Model 3 especially has gone down in the US compared to last year due to the drop in the EV incentive.

Reality check:

January 2018 Model 3 deliveries in U.S. (estimated): 1875
January 2019 Model 3 deliveries in U.S. (estimated): 6500

It is factually incorrect to say that "demand for [the] Tesla Model 3... has gone down in the U.S. compared to last year..."

Now, it's pretty certain that U.S. sales -- not demand -- this year will be down from last year, given that (a) Tesla has about maxed out production at its one and only auto assembly plant, and certainly won't have another producing at high volume this year, if at all; and (b) Tesla will be concentrating on overseas sales of the Model 3, to take advantage of the untapped demand for the highest trim levels of the car.

However, we don't know what the steady-state domestic demand level actually is, because Tesla has not yet (a) offered the Standard Range Model 3 for sale, nor (b) offered leasing for the Model 3, nor (3) made the Premium Upgrade Package optional. At present, that "upsell" is mandatory.

Also, stating a prediction as if it has already happened isn't the way to persuade people that you know what you're talking about.

GM on the other hand is less pressured as they have their gas guzzling SUVs selling like hotcakes...

It seems pretty clear that GM executives don't agree with your assessment, since GM has recently announced plans to convert the entire Cadillac line to EVs of one type or another.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

...they have to come with a car close to the $35,000 mark soon.

You appear to be making a habit of stating opinion as fact. Contrariwise, a lot of people are expressing the opinion that Tesla never will offer a $35k Model 3, because sales have been so good for higher trim level versions of the car. I think (and hope) they are wrong, but certainly it's possible... contrary to your baseless assertion.

GM does not care as much that Volts and Bolts are not selling as they have other products that selling. So the loss in the tax incentive would not be as much a factor as it is Tesla. Tesla I believe is more impacted as a company by that then GM is a company.

In response to losing the Federal tax credit, GM has taken the Volt out of production. Tesla, in response to the same thing, dropped the prices for its cars by $2000. Seems pretty clear to me that GM is feeling the impact more!

So what I am saying there is more pressure on Tesla.

Yes, you keep saying that... but offer absolutely no actual evidence to support your assertion.

...I do not think Tesla would have cut prices if they did not see something on the horizon that we do not see.

I don't think there is anything mysterious about it. As I see it, Tesla lowered its prices mainly for two reasons: (a) To help maintain demand after the lowering of the (soon to end) Federal tax credit, and (b) as Elon stated, because Tesla has been successful in lowering costs for building the Model 3, and has chosen to pass some of those savings along to customers.

Now, that's not to say that those two reasons must be 100% of Tesla's motive for lowering prices, and I wouldn't try to guess which of those reasons is more important for Tesla. But taken together, those two reasons certainly seem to adequately explain the price cuts. No mysterious "something on the horizon" need apply.

​

 

[TeslaInvestors]

Being fair, demand for Tesla Model 3 especially has gone down in the US compared to last year due to the drop in the EV incentive. That it was going to happen and I am glad that is has happened. I think this will make Tesla more competitive rather than less competitive, as they do not have a crutch for long. Tesla has to now concentrate on what other manufacturers do, value engineering and product diversification. Streamline processes, improve quality, bring out other models including cheaper ones etc. They have no other choice. GM on the other hand is less pressured as they have their gas guzzling SUVs selling like hotcakes and they can a few thousand staff to impress wall street. But sooner or later they have to face the music too. Nissan is content to stay on the radar and sell their overpriced car.

So is there a hard road for Tesla, Yes. And I am sure this will please Tesla Investors. What may not please him is that Tesla is well positioned to take on the challenge, no gaurantees it will not fall by the way side, but reasonable bets are they will emerge stronger once they do not the incentive to fall back on. For example, Tesla on their site claim a lower price after taking into account gas savings and the incentive. Once the incentive goes away fully, there ability to show a lower cost changes, unless they change the top line. And Pushmi-Pullyu is right about the double standards, when GM offers $7,500 off MSRP, either their cars were overpriced by about $10,000 (or at least $7,500) or they are not selling.

Generally agree, but the sales went down due to a double whammy.
1. Federal tax credit decreased. A minor factor, as Tesla already offset ti with $3100 in price reductions for Model 3.
2. Pent up demand and Model S/X owners switching to Model 3 on 2 year lease ends are over. These were people Tesla cajoled from Model 3 to get into 2 year leases. Tesla has been calling MOdel 3 res holders for years, lying to them that fed tax credit will expire before they can get their MOdel 3.

Watch out for further crash in February! Part of Jan sales was just left over from Dec deliveries, that Tesla promised to refund any tax credit difference. I don't know how they do that. Most likely, they just back date the docs. Tesla has scammed every entity they interacted with. No reason to think that this instance will be different.

Also, I think EV technology is genuinely inferior to ICE technology. So without the govt crutches for the EVs, they are dead. It is only the pushing and shoving of govts that is making these sell.

 

[interestedinEV]

OK I may be wrong about everything including why Tesla is discounting the prices. The ostensible reason suggested is that they have a reduced costs and want to pass it on to the customer. Again, I have no way of challenging that but here is an immediate cash flow challenge that Tesla has. On March 1st $920 million is due to bondholders. Tesla came up with an innovative way of paying the bondholders, where half the convertible bonds would be converted into shares at a strike price of $359.88, as long as the share price is over that value, else they have to pay full in cash. Today the price is around $307, and unless it jumps $52 + in the next 3 weeks, they have to payout the full amount. However, the stock is volatile and a 15-20% jump in 3 weeks is not out of the realm of possibility for this stock. https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-to-pay-march-convertible-debt-cash-stock-report-2018-12.


Assuming they have to pay out the full amount, may be they have the cash to pay it out full, and the reduction in revenue due to $1000+ in reductions are immaterial to their finances. I would generally imagine, that a company would try to conserve cash and not reduce prices, if they had no need to do so, at least till after March 1st, especially if they have borrow money. Maybe one of you know how much cash they have on hand (I am not able to find it), but they do have a lot expansion plans and their solar business seems to be declining (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4238998-teslas-solar-business-falling-apart). Logically it makes no sense to me that with pressures on the solar business, the bond payment coming up etc. they would do a price cut unless they were trying to stimulate demand at this time. Again, I may be totally wrong about and have known to be so, and they may have enough cash on hand to meet the bond obligations and the investment obligations. In which case, reducing price is a great move. However forgive me for being skeptical for now. Possibly in a month or two I will be a lot more positive about TSLA, but it is wait and see for me.

 

[bwilson4web]

Facts and data:

• 
  source.
  
• Tesla financial filings with Securities Exchange Commission
  
  • $3,685,618,000 Cash and cash equivalents December 2018

Tesla continues to improve their products and manufacturing. Elon Musk continues to adapt to new situations and technology at a rate that baffles the less skilled. In their confusion, the unskilled issue baseless speculations while Elon's businesses continue to thrive built upon popular products. Fortunately, there is no requirement that everyone understand what Tesla and Elon are doing.

Bob Wilson

 

[TeslaInvestors]

OK I may be wrong about everything including why Tesla is discounting the prices. The ostensible reason suggested is that they have a reduced costs and want to pass it on to the customer. Again, I have no way of challenging that but here is an immediate cash flow challenge that Tesla has. On March 1st $920 million is due to bondholders. Tesla came up with an innovative way of paying the bondholders, where half the convertible bonds would be converted into shares at a strike price of $359.88, as long as the share price is over that value, else they have to pay full in cash. Today the price is around $307, and unless it jumps $52 + in the next 3 weeks, they have to payout the full amount. However, the stock is volatile and a 15-20% jump in 3 weeks is not out of the realm of possibility for this stock. https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-to-pay-march-convertible-debt-cash-stock-report-2018-12.


Assuming they have to pay out the full amount, may be they have the cash to pay it out full, and the reduction in revenue due to $1000+ in reductions are immaterial to their finances. I would generally imagine, that a company would try to conserve cash and not reduce prices, if they had no need to do so, at least till after March 1st, especially if they have borrow money. Maybe one of you know how much cash they have on hand (I am not able to find it), but they do have a lot expansion plans and their solar business seems to be declining (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4238998-teslas-solar-business-falling-apart). Logically it makes no sense to me that with pressures on the solar business, the bond payment coming up etc. they would do a price cut unless they were trying to stimulate demand at this time. Again, I may be totally wrong about and have known to be so, and they may have enough cash on hand to meet the bond obligations and the investment obligations. In which case, reducing price is a great move. However forgive me for being skeptical for now. Possibly in a month or two I will be a lot more positive about TSLA, but it is wait and see for me.

LOL. Never seen someone apologize so much to state a simple fact, that is way too apparent to anyone with half a brain over their shoulders Teslemmings excepted.

But I don't see a big issue if stock remains well below $359. Unless SEC has tied its hands, Tesla can just issue 3.5M shares at $300 and cover that cash. $300 is still a very good price to sell shares compared to where TSLA will be by year end.

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

@interestedinEV:

You have linked to both Business Insider and what some of us call "Reeking Alpha"... no need to drive up the Google rating for that site. Business Insider is all over the map about Tesla, from some pretty good reporting all the way down to Linette Lopez' outright anti-Tesla FUD hit pieces.

Reeking Alpha... well, let's just say it's the "ur source", the ultimate source, for much or perhaps most of the anti-Tesla pravduh that gets parroted all over the internet... including here, by the guy who falsely calls himself "TeslaInvestors". (Real investors actually buy stock; short-sellers just borrow it.) I read (past tense) Tesla-related blog posts and comments on Reeking Alpha for awhile... following the advice of "Know thine enemy". It was like wading thru a sewer, and I was very glad when I'd had a sufficient education in the kind of lies and false reasoning used by the dispensers of anti-Tesla disinformation and lies; sufficient education to stop exposing myself to that. Talk about needing to wash out your mind!

If you are a real investor and not a short-seller, then you need to find much better, more reliable sources for your news about Tesla.

​

 

[Pushmi-Pullyu]

OK I may be wrong about everything including why Tesla is discounting the prices. The ostensible reason suggested is that they have a reduced costs and want to pass it on to the customer.

Yes, but the timing -- coinciding with the drop in maximum U.S. Federal tax credit from $7500 to $3750 -- surely can't be a coincidence. I'd say the most likely scenario is that Tesla's cost reductions for building the Model 3 enabled them to drop the prices, but almost certainly what actually triggered the price drop was a perceived need on the part of Tesla to support demand in the face of a significant drop in the domestic tax credit.

And don't pay any attention to the lies, half-truths, pravduh, and FUD from "TeslaInvestors". He is not your friend. He wants you to panic and sell your TSLA stock at fire-sale prices, so he can benefit from his "bet" on Tesla to fail.

Given how well Tesla is succeeding, I wonder how much he's lost on his bet? He's certainly very desperate to convince someone out there that Tesla isn't the roaring, rising success that it is!