Model 3 production ramping up

  • Thread starter Thread starter Rex B
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Rex B

Rex B

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Tesla says they delivered 1550 Model 3s in 4Q.
That is up from 220 in 3Q.
Maybe they are getting the bugs worked out.
 
Clearly the problem(s) with battery pack assembly at Gigafactory One have been solved, or at least greatly ameliorated. But as has been said many times, the adage "A chain is only as strong as its weakest link" applies equally well to mass production. Increasing production at one bottleneck just means that another bottleneck will become the limiting choke point.

Unfortunately, the increase from 220 in Q3 to 1550 in Q4 does not really help in predicting what production will be in Q1 or Q2 or Q3 in 2018.

I'm frankly glad that Tesla (or Elon) has scaled back on projections, from 10,000 per week to 5000 per week sometime in 2018. A more realistic goal might actually be achievable. Speaking as a Tesla fan, it gets pretty tiresome that Tesla missing its timeline goals is so downright predictable. I'd much, much rather be able to think and believe that Tesla's publicly announced timeline goals are something they might be able to achieve!
 
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So since the production projections have been updated, what are everyone's 2018 predictions?
Earning reports, Musk:
Currently "extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week."
End of Q1 2500/week
End of Q2 5000/week

I don't believe any of those targets will be met, if forced to make a bet I'd say 50K today...
 
Here are the Tesla numbers. I'm willing to keep waiting for the best. The numbers will come .
The numbers for the last three months of 2017:Q4
  • Tesla Model S – 15,200
  • Tesla Model X – 13,120
  • Tesla Model 3 – 1,550
  • Total Q4 deliveries: 29,870
a 27% increase over Q4 2016. An increase of 9% over last quarter.
For the year, total production amounted to 101,312 vehicles, a 33% improvement over 2016’s production
 
God said:
So since the production projections have been updated, what are everyone's 2018 predictions?
Earning reports, Musk:
Currently "extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week."
End of Q1 2500/week
End of Q2 5000/week

I don't believe any of those targets will be met, if forced to make a bet I'd say 50K today...
Click to expand...

Maybe I shouldn't believe, but I have to think these new targets are achievable. They can't put out targets they can't meet at this stage. Ast least, not for the Model 3, at least.

Are you saying 50K for the year? That's way too pessimistic for me, but then again, my optimism hasn't exactly worked in my favor here. Still, I'm hoping for 200K for the year now.
 
If you go by those estimates and extrapolate a linear growth each month between the targets, you end up to something like 80k for Q1 and Q2. Extrapolate farther based on 10k by end of Q4, and the total for 2018 looks like about 240k. That’s a respectable number of vehicles per year, but may be still optimistic.
 
Cypress said:
If you go by those estimates and extrapolate a linear growth each month between the targets, you end up to something like 80k for Q1 and Q2.
Click to expand...

The problem is that it's not going to be linear growth. Tesla originally projected a smooth "S-curve" for increasing Model 3 production (see below). That's still the best guess, but realistically we can anticipate that it won't be at all smooth. There will be some plateaus or possibly even dips in that S-curve, as Tesla deals with various issues and bottlenecks while it ramps up the production rate.

We can be sure of one thing: The growth in production will not be linear.

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Possibly. Elon’s production ramp up estimates have not been particularly accurate. But you can do a best fit linear trend line through the s-curve to get a guesstimate.

Are you thinking the production volume for 2018 will be less?
 
I'll put it like this, often when you go to a Vegas hotel off the strip, you get "free play" or a free bet...If I had a "free play" bet where I TODAY I had to bet on 2018 Tesla Model 3 production, I'd say 50K...But if Tesla produces say 10K for Q1, then they're on the right track and I'd like to make another "bet"...

Two thing that really does scare me:
First business day of the new quarter Musk posts that the gigafactory is hiring...Now had Musk announced they're expanding it would make me feel a little bit better, but he didn't...Musk originally stated 5000 Model 3's a week in December so you'd think Tesla would have proper staffing, but both because Tesla is hiring and Musk sent out that tweet advertising that they're hiring it just makes me wonder what's going on with the management at Tesla....

I believe prediction wise, probably best to guess numbers by the quarter...Anyone care to guess how many deliveries for 2018 Q1? I'm going to go with 6500...
 
God said:
... just makes me wonder what's going on with the management at Tesla....

I believe prediction wise, probably best to guess numbers by the quarter...Anyone care to guess how many deliveries for 2018 Q1? I'm going to go with 6500...
Click to expand...
I'm a little surprised there hasn't been an upper level management firing/hiring. Like, Gilbert Passin, or someone just beneath him.

But anyway, put me down for 20,000 in Q1.
 
I am going to say 10k delivered for Q1, I am tired of overshooting. This has to be the floor.

Tesla keeps focusing guidance on rates, not total output. So I expect to see at least one full week of 1000 per week in January, one week of 1750 per week in February and one week of 2500 per week in March. This is just based on the statement yesterday.

I can’t find the quote now, but somewhere Musk just recently said that the robots are finally producing battery packs, and faster than humans. No more robots can be added (or something like that). I think maybe they can see light at the end of the battery pack tunnel, but it is still going to be a constraint in Q1.

So I expect to see “burst” weeks and off weeks (for quality refinement) throughout the quarter.
 
Josh Bryant said:
So I expect to see “burst” weeks and off weeks (for quality refinement) throughout the quarter.
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I agree. January and February will probably be lower deliveries than people hope.

2,000 to 3,000 perhaps for Jan and Feb. Then in March they will make a major push of 5,000-7,000.
 
Josh Bryant said:
I am going to say 10k delivered for Q1, I am tired of overshooting. This has to be the floor.

Tesla keeps focusing guidance on rates, not total output. So I expect to see at least one full week of 1000 per week in January, one week of 1750 per week in February and one week of 2500 per week in March. This is just based on the statement yesterday.

I can’t find the quote now, but somewhere Musk just recently said that the robots are finally producing battery packs, and faster than humans. No more robots can be added (or something like that). I think maybe they can see light at the end of the battery pack tunnel, but it is still going to be a constraint in Q1.

So I expect to see “burst” weeks and off weeks (for quality refinement) throughout the quarter.
Click to expand...

I just noticed a typo in my previous statement. Musk said *now* more robots can be added, much different meaning than *no* more robots. But I stand by my statement. My guess is that to get to the 5k numbers, they will need to get the equipment installed out there.
 
Cypress said:
Possibly. Elon’s production ramp up estimates have not been particularly accurate. But you can do a best fit linear trend line through the s-curve to get a guesstimate.
Click to expand...

I don't think a linear trend line has any value at all. The real question is just how fast the S-curve is going to curve upwards, and unfortunately nobody -- not even anyone at Tesla -- can really say how rapid the rate of increase is going to be.

Cypress said:
Are you thinking the production volume for 2018 will be less?
Click to expand...

You mean, less than "80k for Q1 and Q2"? I think Q2 production is going to be significantly higher than Q1. Why wouldn't it be?

I'm not going to try to guess actual volume, after having failed so miserably with guessing TM3 production for 2017. Tesla (or Elon) originally projected 100,000-200,000. I thought I was playing it safe by guessing an order of magnitude less, at 20,000... turns out I was more than an order of magnitude too high!

With Tesla's actual production falling that wildly short of its projections, I don't see much point in trying to make predictions. But that shouldn't discourage anyone else from engaging in the fun of guessing!

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future” -- Yogi Berra
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
I don't think a linear trend line has any value at all. The real question is just how fast the S-curve is going to curve upwards, and unfortunately nobody -- not even anyone at Tesla -- can really say how rapid the rate of increase is going to be.



You mean, less than "80k for Q1 and Q2"? I think Q2 production is going to be significantly higher than Q1. Why wouldn't it be?

I'm not going to try to guess actual volume, after having failed so miserably with guessing TM3 production for 2017. Tesla (or Elon) originally projected 100,000-200,000. I thought I was playing it safe by guessing an order of magnitude less, at 20,000... turns out I was more than an order of magnitude too high!

With Tesla's actual production falling that wildly short of its projections, I don't see much point in trying to make predictions. But that shouldn't discourage anyone else from engaging in the fun of guessing!

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future” -- Yogi Berra
Click to expand...

If you look at the s-curve graph you posted there is a portion that looks pretty linear. Cumulative volume is based on the area under the curve. Unless the s-curve gets wildly compressed to the right, a linear fit should give a close approximation of total volume. But you are right, who knows at this point?
 
Cypress said:
If you look at the s-curve graph you posted there is a portion that looks pretty linear... Unless the s-curve gets wildly compressed to the right, a linear fit should give a close approximation of total volume.
Click to expand...

Okay, point taken. I guess I'm being too OCD about geometry. ;)
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