Tesla to lose $5900 on base Model 3

JyChevyVolt said:
UBS came back with a updated teardown.

I posted during the unveiling that the base model 3 would cost $41000 to break even and fully optioned Model 3 would cost close to $80k. I posted my disappointment during the unveiling. Tesla had created another luxury car instead of mass market car that Elon promised.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-will-lose-money-on-a-cheaper-model-3-analyst-says-2018-08-16
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I did a Google search and found a CNBC article that had more details about what UBS did which included two other cars, 2014 BMW i3 and Chevy Bolt (called something else in EU.) Just I could not find a copy of the original note. It may be in Swiss-Greman so not easily searched.

Understand I'm not in the market to replace our perfectly fine, plug-in hybrids. The SuperCharger network is getting there but I need to see one at Fort Smith, AR. Just the limitations of our plug-in hybrids are tiresome.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
I did a Google search and found a CNBC article that had more details about what UBS did which included two other cars, 2014 BMW i3 and Chevy Bolt (called something else in EU.) Just I could not find a copy of the original note. It may be in Swiss-Greman so not easily searched.

Understand I'm not in the market to replace our perfectly fine, plug-in hybrids. The SuperCharger network is getting there but I need to see one at Fort Smith, AR. Just the limitations of our plug-in hybrids are tiresome.

Bob Wilson
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The limitations are between your ears. Sell the i3 and get the 3.

Getting back on topic, the Model 3 is not a mass market car. We will need some other manufacturer to develop a mass market BEV. GM and Ford are too stupid to develop a mass market BEV. Maybe cars like the Sono Sion will become the first mass market BEV.
 
JyChevyVolt said:
I posted during the unveiling that the base model 3 would cost $41000 to break even and fully optioned Model 3 would cost close to $80k.
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Very obviously, Sandy Munro disagrees. Disagrees rather strongly. He estimated the average Model 3 will have a 30% gross profit margin.

See: "Munro Eats Crow, Finds Tesla Model 3 To Be Highly Profitable"

Of course, that doesn't mean Munro is right and UBS is wrong. But it certainly does mean that we shouldn't just blindly assume UBS is right.

Elon Musk has said repeatedly that they won't put the base Model 3 into production until they can do so without losing money. I'd take his word for that over that of either UBS or Munro in an instant. Outsiders can only estimate costs and prices; Elon has access to actual facts on the subject.

JyChevyVolt said:
I posted my disappointment during the unveiling. Tesla had created another luxury car instead of mass market car that Elon promised.
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Is the Model 3 a true mass market car? Of course it is! It's already among the top 10 best-selling cars (not including light trucks) on the U.S. market.

You need to pay more attention to what Tesla spokesmen say about the Model 3, and far less to what journalists trying to write a "story" instead of the facts say about it. Anybody who thought the Model 3 was going to be priced as an "everyman" car was not paying attention. Not just one, but two, Tesla spokesmen compared the Model 3 to the Audi A4 and the BMW 3-Series, so there's your price range right there. Also, Musk estimated the average selling price of the Model 3 at $42k, which is far above what anyone would call an "everyman" selling price.
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JyChevyVolt said:
Maybe cars like the Sono Sion will become the first mass market BEV.
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No auto maker except Tesla and BYD have access to the amount of EV battery cells needed to make one or more models of long-range BEVs in high volumes. Some legacy auto makers are finally starting to move in the direction of building battery factories whose output they control, but the announced plans are only halfway measures, and even those are going to take at least a couple of years before they start producing.

In investigations of criminal conspiracies, they say "follow the money". When it comes to seeing which auto makers are serious about making long-range plug-in EVs in high numbers -- and which are not -- follow the battery cell supply.
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JyChevyVolt said:
The limitations are between your ears. Sell the i3 and get the 3.
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For economic reasons, I have to be 'poor' this year to save medical premiums and get lower priced medicines. It's complicated.
JyChevyVolt said:
Getting back on topic, the Model 3 is not a mass market car. We will need some other manufacturer to develop a mass market BEV. GM and Ford are too stupid to develop a mass market BEV. Maybe cars like the Sono Sion will become the first mass market BEV.
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There are many used, EVs available but they fail to meet our requirements:
  • Drive 700 miles in one day.
  • Drive 120 miles, twice in one day.
The CCS, fast DC charger network is getting a big boost with VW's Electrify America effort. It wasn't until August 1st that the 120 mile requirement could be met by adding 10 miles with a stop midway to charge. But the 700 mile trip is barely possible using SuperChargers and one CHAdeMO station and adding three hours for detour and a charge. With a SuperCharger in Fort Smith, AR, the 700 mile trip can be done in pretty much any Tesla model.

It isn't just an electric car but also the fast DC charging network that are needed. In the meanwhile, a plug-in hybrid means I carry the fast DC charger with me.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
There are many used, EVs available but they fail to meet our requirements:
  • Drive 700 miles in one day.
  • Drive 120 miles, twice in one day.
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If you have to do that more than just a few times a year, then with those requirements, I wouldn't be looking at BEVs. If you want an EV, I'd be looking at PHEVs and only at PHEVs. If none of those appeals to you, then -- much as I hate to say it -- you'd probably be better off with a gasmobile. However, since you are a regular on this forum, I presume you have other plans.
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Pushmi-Pullyu said:
I'd be looking at PHEVs and only at PHEVs
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Own and operate:
  • 2014 BMW i3-REx - has already done the 700 mi drive.
  • 2017 Prius Prime - 1,200 mi delivery drive Rhode Island to Huntsville, AL.
It turns out the long range, Model 3 can do the 700 mi drive by adding 100 mi detour and charge in Rogers AR. When/if the Fort Smith AR SuperCharger station opens. Then any Tesla can make the 700 mi trip.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
It turns out the long range, Model 3 can do the 700 mi drive by adding 100 mi detour and charge in Rogers AR.
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Adding 100 miles to a trip just to use a Tesla Supercharger would show a pretty strong devotion to the EV revolution!

I don't expect EV fast charge stations will ever be as commonplace as gas stations are today, since most will be slow charging at home or at work. But I hope the day will come when 98% of people in industrialized countries -- not just the USA -- live within 25 miles of an ultrafast EV charger, whether that's a Tesla Supercharger or some other brand.
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Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Adding 100 miles to a trip just to use a Tesla Supercharger would show a pretty strong devotion to the EV revolution!
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I know but I'm not that fanatical. Still, it gives an option if one of our existing cars goes away. BTW, that detour would be to use a CHAdeMO-to-Tesla adapter.

I have two perfectly fine plug-in hybrids that fully meet my requirements both locally and cross country. When a Fort Smith AR SuperCharger station opens, any of the Teslas, new or used, will meet my requirements. I'm patient as 2019-2020 will be here soon enough.

Bob Wilson
 
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bwilson4web said:
I know but I'm not that fanatical.
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I'm not, either. I'm amazed at how much time and effort some people go to, to extend the range of their PEV (Plug-in EV).

Much as I'm attracted to Tesla's cars, if I was offered the choice of any PEV I wanted, I'd probably choose a Volt. Yeah, the back seat is tiny, but a small car serves my personal needs just fine. (Or it would if I was still able to drive.) I wouldn't be carrying more than one passenger very often. Now, for a two-or-more car family, having one of them be a BEV (Tesla or otherwise) is far more practical. Use the other car -- a gasmobile or a PHEV -- for long distance trips.

I feel confident that BEVs are the future of automobiles, but that future hasn't progressed beyond the early adopter stage yet.
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Pushmi-Pullyu said:
I feel confident that BEVs are the future of automobiles, but that future hasn't progressed beyond the early adopter stage yet.
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It is a foggy boundary that changes each year with the high-speed, DC charging networks.

Bob Wilson

ps. I'd seen our friend, DG, posting in article comments and figured, it fits. A hit-and-post . . . person of 'Donald Trump' character.
 
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