Tesla stock price

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With the miss (from expectations) on 4th qtr deliveries, TSLA took a big hit today. Will it recover, or is this the start of the next stock decline? Until they start delivering the new "cheap" model, I can see more delivery declines in 2025. The FSD and Robotaxi hype may be losing steam, too. And even if Musk succeeds in reducing regulations overhead and delays, can't see that helping much in the short term. Losing the 7500 tax credit will hurt, too.

As an aside, the Cybertruck fire in front of the Vegas Trump building is another indication of the hate for both Musk and Trump. They both better have good security, to avoid getting shot. Unfortunately, these incidents only inspire other extreme nutcases.
 
Until we have some idea what the promised lower-priced model is and how it's priced, it's hard to know what will happen to Tesla sales in 2025. They've suggested it will be built on existing production lines, which makes it seem like not an all-new model, but maybe a modified/decontented Model 3 or Model Y. It does seem that the Model Y is headed for an update along the lines of what the Model 3 got a while back, which could help a bit, but it's increasingly clear that the Cybertruck isn't going to be a volume model anytime soon, and probably not ever. And there will be a steady flow of new models from competitors, while Hyundai's new Georgia plant expands the number of Hyundai, Kia and Genesis models that qualify for the full federal tax credit (for as long as they last, which is highly uncertain right now). I wouldn't bet on 2025 being a great year for Tesla, unless they have a real surprise on deck.
 
I've already sold my TSLA stock so my interest has evaporated. But they still sell the best 'price-performance' EVs.

The end of March will be the next window to look at replacing my 2019 Tesla Model 3. But it ain't broke so I don't need to replace it.

Bob Wilson
 
Well, final 2024 sales figures are in and just about everyone's EV sales are up solidly except a couple of the German companies and Tesla. The Equinox EV and Prologue seem to be legitimate hits, and even Ford, which introduced no new EVs in 2024, saw a solid EV sales increase.
 
I was away skiing today, so missed the live market action. But I see now that TSLA had a good rebound today. Not sure what pushed that, other than just a general market bounce up.

Actually, had a good couple weeks in the markets. With end of year tax selling and the Santa Claus rally fail, I managed to snag some stocks and ETFs that I had been tracking for some time, and got them at really good prices. And the best news, is they are all up now, some by a lot.
 
So for now the stock seems to be settling in at a range between about $390 and $410 or so. Still seems high to me, but everyone knows I am not a Tesla/Musk fan, so I may be biased. I do find it interesting that the stock seemed to get no bump at all from the first official info on the Model Y "Juniper" update. I would have thought an update of the company's biggest-selling model might mean something, but maybe people are buying simply based on robotaxi/AI hype and the expectation that Musk being besties with the new U.S. administration will guarantee success. But given the, uh, volatile personalities of both Musk and Trump, who knows how long that will last. The adventure continues.
 
Bruce M. said:
So for now the stock seems to be settling in at a range between about $390 and $410 or so. Still seems high to me, but everyone knows I am not a Tesla/Musk fan, so I may be biased. I do find it interesting that the stock seemed to get no bump at all from the first official info on the Model Y "Juniper" update. I would have thought an update of the company's biggest-selling model might mean something, but maybe people are buying simply based on robotaxi/AI hype and the expectation that Musk being besties with the new U.S. administration will guarantee success. But given the, uh, volatile personalities of both Musk and Trump, who knows how long that will last. The adventure continues.
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If the new administration does away with the carbon offset credits so important to Tesla's revenue stream, Elon might not be smiling as much.
 
TSLA had very bad qtr 4 results last night, missed on both top and bottom lines. We already knew that sales were down in 2024, and with continued lowering of prices, the margins are getting hit more. This trend needs to be reversed, and soon, or it won't be long before TSLA becomes unprofitable again.

The stock took a big hit in the aftermarket yesterday following the results announcement. Yet this morning it has bounced back and is even positive from yesterday's close. Of course it is still way down from its recent highs, and all this may have all already been baked into the stock price. But to me, it does not look good for the company and the stock going forward. They really need to get those new low cost cars to market, and soon. Can't depend on just FSD and robo taxis.
 
Maybe Elon's got a magic trick up his sleeve, but it sure looks to me like investors are buying fantasy, not reality.
 
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bwilson4web said:
So I sold it for a solar roof just in time?

Bob Wilson
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If I recall, you sold it just before it had a big run up to record territory. That was around Oct 23, when it was around $217 and then proceeded over the next couple months to all time highs of $488. I would call that very, very poor timing. Even ATM now it is still over $400.
 
Darn, I bought it for about $80 before it split 3-to-1 and 2-to-1. Off hand:
  • $217 / 80 ~= 2.7 price increase
  • 2.7 * 6 ~= 16 times my original investment
  • So I missed another 2.25 times increase. Why didn't you warn me. <LOL>
The November election was an even money bet. Just sometimes the dice land the wrong way.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
Darn, I bought it for about $80 before it split 3-to-1 and 2-to-1. Off hand:
  • $217 / 80 ~= 2.7 price increase
  • 2.7 * 6 ~= 16 times my original investment
  • So I missed another 2.25 times increase. Why didn't you warn me. <LOL>
The November election was an even money bet. Just sometimes the dice land the wrong way.

Bob Wilson
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Sorry, I don't give stock trade recommendations online. And with Tesla, have never owned it. But it is an interesting stock to watch, given the incredible valuation of the stock. And I have tracked EV and auto stocks (though never owned) for a long while, too, because I drive them.

Elon, as a person, also makes it more interesting. I've got to know him better after watching some long interviews (Joe Rogen and others). He has widened his interests, too, not only with SpaceX, X, XAI, but also politics. Very interesting guy, maybe a little different personality and mannerisms, but definitely very intelligent, and seems to have shown a lot of common sense lately, too.
 
R P said:
Elon, as a person, also makes it more interesting.
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PM with an address and I'll mail my copy of his biography. Unlike videos, it starts with his family and growing up in S. Africa. It gave me insights that when I saw he'd become 'distracted', led me to sell the stock.

IMHO, TSLA will not suddenly tank nor his other business disappear. Rather, his steep rise of contributions will (has) already begun to decline. There is a lag before the momentum fades but I've seen that trend line before at General Electric, Boeing, and SAIC. I've never seen it reversed but then I'm only 75.

Bob Wilson
 
bwilson4web said:
PM with an address and I'll mail my copy of his biography. Unlike videos, it starts with his family and growing up in S. Africa. It gave me insights that when I saw he'd become 'distracted', led me to sell the stock.

IMHO, TSLA will not suddenly tank nor his other business disappear. Rather, his steep rise of contributions will (has) already begun to decline. There is a lag before the momentum fades but I've seen that trend line before at General Electric, Boeing, and SAIC. I've never seen it reversed but then I'm only 75.

Bob Wilson
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No thanks, Bob. I have plenty of info on Musk, past, and learning more about present. What's most interesting and enlightening to me are the interviews on podcasts. Have you watched those?

I don't necessarily believe what others say about people, incl a biography. I prefer to hear/see them directly, where I can assess them myself. There is just too much misinformation in the news and on the internet these days.
 
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R P said:
No thanks, Bob. I have plenty of info on Musk, past, and learning more about present. What's most interesting and enlightening to me are the interviews on podcasts. Have you watched those?
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Does yesterday's 2024 Q4 financial YouTube count?
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/...-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results
R P said:
I don't necessarily believe what others say about people, incl a biography. I prefer to hear/see them directly, where I can assess them myself. There is just too much misinformation in the news and on the internet these days.
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This was an authorized biography but I won't push it. I was curious about some of his 'combative' attitudes and understand where it comes from.

Bob Wilson
 
I don't need a youtube for the 4th qtr results. I got it on my trading platform as soon as it was released after the bell. I had a much better understanding of Musk after watching the podcasts. You should do the same, very enlightening about Musk, the person. Made a lot of sense, too, to understand his actions.
 
For qtr reports and news about stocks, just use your online trading platform. I also use CNBC market site for daily general business reports. As for podcast, Joe Rogen is the biggest, but there are many others. Just google. And of course there is X, which has news about anything you want, incl podcasts. It has become go to site for news. BTW, X users are now 50:50 right wing/left wing. So you can follow your favs whether left or right. And with the Community Notes (also now adopted by Facebook) easy to weed out and ignore misinformation. The old Twitter was totally useless with all its censorship and shadow banning.
 
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