Model 3/Y: End-of-Life

bwilson4web

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I knew eventually my 2019 Model 3 would reach "End of Life" which means no further downloads with better vehicle software. New, I payed $1,200 extra for AutoPilot and later, $6,000 for Full Self Driving. But it seems Tesla is focusing on HW 4 development with HW 3 being later 'adapted':


Bob Wilson
 
So, does HW4 incorporate external radar or LIDAR sensors? Or is it still mostly or all camera based? Which would be scary.
 
Seems like LIDAR would be a no brainer and their resistance might be due to cost. Lucid's highest level Dream Drive incorporates LIDAR but their software doesn't seem to be ready for prime time... but then neither is Tesla's, really. I am probably going to sit all this out for some more years, but I am NOT happy with my Toyota's lane centering. Disengages far too easily and the driver presence method leaves a LOT to be desired. Literally have to fight the movements of the steering wheel with just the right force to prove your hands are on the wheel every 15 seconds. Too little force and it won't detect, and too much and you just manually override it. LOL.

HW4 would have to be camera-based or current Tesla owners would be stuck with HW3 and Tesla would lose a big potential source of revenue from the upgrade. However, Elon's hatred of LIDAR appears to be softening:
The Lidar U-Turn: Elon Musk’s “Fool’s Errand” Becomes Tesla’s Secret Weapon
 
So, does HW4 incorporate external radar or LIDAR sensors? Or is it still mostly or all camera based? Which would be scary.
Cameras and a defective Google map:
  • No ultrasonic sensors - my older 2019 has 12 and I had to replace a rock struck one
  • No radar - the radar is in the car but no longer used as the COTS units was less accurate than the cameras
  • Fewer cameras - new Teslas have just two instead of the three in my Model 3
  • No LIDAR - which I would never trust ... especially seeing cars with multiple LIDARS suggesting a lack of reliability
Tesla has a patent for a high resolution radar that may show up in future models.

Bob Wilson
 
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