Bloomberg Model 3 tracker shows production crashing below 1000/week

TeslaInvestors said:
I'm not sure that's the function I was trying to show. My function is a discrete one. What I'm showing is a burst mode production.
The rate grows higher as time progresses, but the duration of each burst gets shorter. When we integrate it over time, it shows a linear plot, meaning average rate of production per unti time is constant.
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Bloomberg's chart is not very accurate at predicting weekly production, as it has several times been over 3000, where the actual production has never been over 3000 in a 7 day period, it was very close right before the current shutdown. Bloomberg keeps making changes to their model, so the predictability is all over the place. Also Tesla has been playing with their vin registrations to create difficulty in tracking, they did the same thing with Model X early in production. For what it is worth, Tesla is between 26000, and 28000 total built so far on my spreadsheet. So Bloomberg is way out in front of my prediction. I am predicting production will increase dramatically in June, I am predicting Q2 production of Model 3 to be 28K, with around 20K delivered. I had previously predicted 25K deliveries (to which all the Tesla fan boys ridiculed me), but I am officially revising that Q2 Model 3 number downward to 20K Delivered.
 
David Green said:
Bloomberg's chart is not very accurate at predicting weekly production...
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That's certainly an understatement!

What I find truly appalling is the reports that they deliberately underestimated the production for some weeks to "make up for" overestimating it in previous weeks.

Apparently at Bloomberg, two wrongs do make a right! :eek: o_O :rolleyes:
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Understand Bloomberg model is quite inaccurate. It should also have shown the plot come down to zero many times, as we know there were many shutdown weeks. My plot is more accurate in that sense.

I'd suggest trimming your forecasts even more. The parking lots in Fremont aren't looking fuller. My guess for May is 4000-5000 Model 3.

As Tesla struggles to produce and find buyers for its Model 3, Nissan Leaf is selling very well. Worldwide ytd, Leaf is leading 28k vs. 12k Model 3.
Top Models.webp
 
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TeslaInvestors said:
I'm not sure that's the function I was trying to show. My function is a discrete one. What I'm showing is a burst mode production.
The rate grows higher as time progresses, but the duration of each burst gets shorter. When we integrate it over time, it shows a linear plot, meaning average rate of production per unit time is a constant.
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If you'll post a CSV showing dates and numbers, I'll see if I can make a credible S curve plot that follows the points. This may give us a clue to what we might see in the next 3-6 months.

My alternative is to use the GreenHybrid, dashboard reported numbers which I already have.

Bob Wilson
 
TeslaInvestors said:
...meaning average rate of production per unit time is a constant.
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Sounds like nonsense to me. I would expect production to grow as market penetration increases, reaching a peak at some point and then falling, eventually, to zero as people stop buying them It's anything but constant.

I'm speaking generally here of course. I have no idea what Musk is playing at. He seems to be having a lot of difficulty making even quite modest numbers. But even he is, demonstrably, not exhibiting a constant level of production.
 
Martin Williams said:
Sounds like nonsense to me. I would expect production to grow as market penetration increases, reaching a peak at some point and then falling, eventually, to zero as people stop buying them It's anything but constant.

I'm speaking generally here of course. I have no idea what Musk is playing at. He seems to be having a lot of difficulty making even quite modest numbers. But even he is, demonstrably, not exhibiting a constant level of production.
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Agree with you, The Model 3 is living on hype right now. Without a doubt it is a good sedan, its just that the world is running away from sedans for the most part. If Tesla had built the Y before the 3, I would have a completely different outlook, but now Tesla is 3 years from introducing the Y in volume, and all the competition is targeting that massive mainstream segment. Tesla keeps referring to their waiting list, as the measure of desirability, but in fact, their reservations have taken a big hit. As more competition comes out with compelling vehicles, more and more of those reservations holders are going to jump to other vehicles. Starting with I-Pace, which the embargo on full test drive reviews is going to be lifted soon (possibly as early as Monday), which I expect we are going to see many favorable comparisons to Tesla vehicles. Jaguar is the first of many mainstream makers that are coming to the party, once people have the chance to see, touch, and drive these vehicles and directly compare them to Tesla, Tesla is in trouble. Musk talked about the pace of innovation in the last earnings call, I argue Tesla has now fallen way behind in innovation, and the S and X designs are becoming long in the tooth. Model 3 is still nice, but very expensive for what it is and in a dying segment. On a side note, I recently saw an article that Model 3 outsold BMW 3 in CA... The article did not mention that the BMW 3 is in the final year of a production run, and due for replacement in 6 months, or that the BMW 3 outsells the entire Tesla brand in the world. Haha! Go figure.
 
David Green said:
Agree with you, The Model 3 is living on hype right now. Without a doubt it is a good sedan, its just that the world is running away from sedans for the most part. If Tesla had built the Y before the 3, I would have a completely different outlook, but now Tesla is 3 years from introducing the Y in volume, and all the competition is targeting that massive mainstream segment. Tesla keeps referring to their waiting list, as the measure of desirability, but in fact, their reservations have taken a big hit..
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Exactly. Plus the reservation list hasn't grown much all in the last 2 years. While Tesla prodiced ~20000 Model 3 so far, the reservation list remained unchanged at 450,000. So a sustained high rate of production is not possible, unless Tesla figures out some way to boost demand in the coming months.
For example, if Tesla will produce at 5k/week, within a year all the reservations will be done and then they have to slow down to 1k/week.
 
TeslaInvestors said:
...if Tesla will produce at 5k/week, within a year all the reservations will be done and then they have to slow down to 1k/week.
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Aside from the actual numbers involved, that is exactly what Tesla bashers said about the reservations vs. long-term demand for the Model S and Model X. Tesla short-selling anti-Tesla FUDsters need some new material; your old FUD is about worn out! :cool:

Fortunately for Tesla, in the real world, high initial demand is generally followed by long-term sustained demand. As the waiting time for the Model 3 comes down, the rate of new reservations will increase... exactly as has happened with the MS and MX.
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Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Aside from the actual numbers involved, that is exactly what Tesla bashers said about the reservations vs. long-term demand for the Model S and Model X. You Tesla short-selling anti-Tesla FUDsters need some new material; your old FUD is about worn out! :cool:

Fortunately for Tesla, in the real world, high initial demand is generally followed by long-term sustained demand. As the waiting time for the Model 3 comes down, the rate of new reservations will increase... exactly as has happened with the MS and MX.
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That is just a hope at this point. One big difference between Model S and Model 3 is the hype. Model S was launched quietly, before Elon took over the company.
It was only after Consumer Reports put it in its best car list that Model S became known to buyers and became popular.

The case for Model 3 is exactly opposite. It was launched with a lot of hype and a promise of $35k best car ever. Also, people wanted to be in for the fed tax credit, and hoping they could sell the reservations or cars at profits because it has such high demand. Look at the crazy number of listings on craigslist for Model 3 reservations, rotting there for weks.

So, I'd say it has a much lower chance of gathering reservations at a faster pace. If anything, the new reservations have dwindled down further.As Edmunds said, just put someone in the back seat of a Model 3 to quickly rupture their Tesla bubble.

5k/week and 10k/week steady production is just a pipe dream. That's why Elon was quick to promise the $28k Model 3 yesterday upon achieving 10k/week steady rate. He knows quite well that the precondition he put there is an impossibility. :(
 
TeslaInvestors said:
That is just a hope at this point. One big difference between Model S and Model 3 is the hype. Model S was launched quietly, before Elon took over the company.
It was only after Consumer Reports put it in its best car list that Model S became known to buyers and became popular.

The case for Model 3 is exactly opposite. It was launched with a lot of hype and a promise of $35k best car ever. Also, people wanted to be in for the fed tax credit, and hoping they could sell the reservations or cars at profits because it has such high demand. Look at the crazy number of listings on craigslist for Model 3 reservations, rotting there for weks.

So, I'd say it has a much lower chance of gathering reservations at a faster pace. If anything, the new reservations have dwindled down further.As Edmunds said, just put someone in the back seat of a Model 3 to immediately burst their Tesla bubble.

5k/week and 10k/week steady production is just a pipe dream. That's why Elon was quick to promise the $28k Model 3 yesterday upon achieving 10k/week steady rate. He knows quite well that the precondition he put there is an impossibility. :(
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I agree with you, I am not sure the market can absorb 10K Model 3's per week on a sustained basis, even if Tesla is able to reach that level. That is basically double the USA total EV sales for all all cars so far this year rate, and you still have new competition, and in a dying segment. If this was the Y, Maybe, but the 3 will not be able to keep that level of interest for long. Another way to think about it is in 20K deliveries they have saturated the USA, with employee, and previous Tesla owners for the current config, and had to move on to Canada to keep the lines running at rate with only this config. Lets assume the P and AWD take the same 20K to saturate, and 20K are going for the low priced model. At 5K per week, that is just 1 month of production for each config to saturate the USA market. I will be surprised it Tesla can sustain 5K per week in deliveries in all of North America for the 2nd half of this year (I think they will oversupply demand)

Also Model S sales are down 10% in the first 5 months of 2018, over 2017 in the USA, Model X is hanging on, but not growing dramatically. I think as model 3 ramps, Model S sales are going to continue to suffer... Model S really needs a refresh.
 
TeslaInvestors said:
That is just a hope at this point. One big difference between Model S and Model 3 is the hype. Model S was launched quietly, before Elon took over the company.
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Elon took over the company in 2007, less than a year before Tesla started selling the Roadster. The Model S was launched in 2012.

TeslaInvestors said:
It was only after Consumer Reports put it in its best car list that Model S became known to buyers and became popular.
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It would be best if you make at least some attempt to learn about a subject before venturing to "correct" those who are knowledgeable about a subject.

The Tesla Model S is the best-reviewed automobile of all time, garnering more "Best car of the year" awards than any other, and even earning several "best car ever made" reviews. But even before that, before the launch of the Model S, Tesla Motors became well-known in popular media, online, and in auto review magazines just from the Tesla Roadster, which suddenly changed the popular perception of electric cars from "punishment cars" which only a "green" activist would drive, to one that was sexy, cutting-edge, and desirable!

If Consumer Reports did not exist, that would have very little impact on the "buzz" about Tesla's cars. In fact, CS seems to need Tesla far more than Tesla needs CS, given the rather desperate way that CS keeps changing its ratings for Tesla cars, so they can have an excuse to run yet another Tesla-related article.

TeslaInvestors said:
The case for Model 3 is exactly opposite. It was launched with a lot of hype and a promise of $35k best car ever.
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I guess this means you were not aware of Tesla Motors until rather recently, some years after the launch of the Model S and Model X. I watched the launch events for both of those cars live online... where were you?

TeslaInvestors said:
Also, people wanted to be in for the fed tax credit, and hoping they could sell the reservations or cars at profits because it has such high demand. Look at the crazy number of listings on craigslist for Model 3 reservations, rotting there for weks.
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The ignorance of anyone who tries to sell a Model 3 reservation on CraigsList would appear to match your own approximate level of ignorance. It clearly states in the fine print of a TM3 reservation that it cannot be transferred without written permission from Tesla Inc.

TeslaInvestors said:
So, I'd say it has a much lower chance of gathering reservations at a faster pace. If anything, the new reservations have dwindled down further.
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o_O :eek: :confused: :rolleyes:
Dwindled down to the "crazy high demand" you were citing in the paragraph just above? You need to make up your mind on which lie to tell, dude.

A drooling idiot babbling nonsense would convey more information than your fact-free, feeble attempts here to tarnish Tesla's good name.
 
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Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Elon took over the company in 2007, less than a year before Tesla started selling the Roadster. The Model S was launched in 2012.
The ignorance of anyone who tries to sell a Model 3 reservation on CraigsList would appear to match your own approximate level of ignorance. It clearly states in the fine print of a TM3 reservation that it cannot be transferred without written permission from Tesla Inc.
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Haha! You need to pull your head out of wherever it is stuck, mate! No problem transferring Model 3 reservations. Many people have done that without any issue.
Without that, Model 3 line will be permanently shut down due to lack fo demand :) Then, there are also the cars for sale on Ebay and craigslist.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/transferring-a-model-3-reservation-no-problem.107282/

o_O :eek: :confused: :rolleyes:
Dwindled down to the "crazy high demand" you were citing in the paragraph just above? You need to make up your mind on which lie to tell, dude.

A drooling idiot babbling nonsense would convey more information than your fact-free, feeble attempts here to tarnish Tesla's good name.
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Haha again! You need to read better! I was referring to a dwindling down from the current rate of 20k res in 2 years, which is < 1k/month new reservation rate.
And no, I don't think you (as you described yourself) are conveying more information than me.
 
TeslaInvestors said:
Tesla has reportedly refunded almost a quarter of Model 3 reservations
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Typical anti-Tesla FUD, from the manure pile dumped on Seeking Alpha every day.

A 23% cancellation rate is slightly lower than the 25% cancellation rate reported for the Model S when it was new, and is certainly nothing to worry about.

What's bizarre is that there is a current InsideEVs news article trumpeting a 23% rate of refunds -- which of course is the same as the cancellation rate. Talking about that 23% rate as if it has lately increased, when 23% is what was reported months ago!

The fact that the reported Model 3 cancellation rate has not increased at all, even after repeated delays, is great news for Tesla supporters!

Go-Tesla_Logo_med.webp
 
My experience with 'percentages' is they are often used to hide what the actual measurements are showing. So let's take an example from this posting:
TeslaInvestors said:
As I was saying. More cancellations than new reservations. Now backed by solid research than just inferring the obvious.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-refunded-almost-quarter-model-174800675.html

Tesla has reportedly refunded almost a quarter of Model 3 reservations
- Only 8% configured
- 23% cancellation rate
- paying out refunds faster than new Model 3 deposits are being made — twice as many

5k a week my foot.
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  • "refunded almost a quarter of Model 3 reservations - so if the widely reported +400,000 deposits is accurate, that means ~300,000 reservations remaining.
  • "8% configured" - so using +400,000 reservations, ~32,000 already produced.
  • "paying refunds faster than new Model 3 deposits" - the problem is we don't know the base numbers. For example, refunding 100 deposits while gaining 50 deposit means a 50 * $1000 ~= $50,000 loss, a rounding error.
A lay report could be an honest misunderstanding of math, innumeracy. So I checked the reference and found true source: https://blog.secondmeasure.com/2018/06/04/tesla-faces-accelerating-rate-of-model-3-refunds/

. . .
In August 2017, Tesla disclosed the gross and net Model 3 reservations, revealing a refund rate of 12 percent. Our analysis aligns with Tesla’s reported figures, also finding that 12 percent of deposits had been refunded at that time.
. . .
Like refunds, our analysis shows configurations are also on the rise. In April, the number of configurations nearly tripled month-over-month among Model 3 reservation holders. These findings may exclude some customers who used different payment methods for the deposit and configuration.

A rising rate of configurations sounds like a happy ending for Tesla fans, but this story has a twist—configurations aren’t necessarily for Model 3s. Some impatient reservation holders are purchasing a more expensive Tesla instead. The Model S and X each start at double the price of a baseline Model 3, making the upsell an ideal outcome for Tesla.​

When I read the source article, interesting but not a 'hair on fire' report. Production delays and a market that has not remained static, there are going to be folks who make a new plan and get their deposit back. For example, the Leaf, Bolt, and new I-Pace are options as well as those who upscaled to Model S or X.

Bob Wilson

ps. We own two, plug-in hybrids and no interest in any pure BEV.
 
Pushmi-Pullyu said:
Typical anti-Tesla FUD, from the manure pile dumped on Seeking Alpha every day.

A 23% cancellation rate is slightly lower than the 25% cancellation rate reported for the Model S when it was new, and is certainly nothing to worry about.

What's bizarre is that there is a current InsideEVs news article trumpeting a 23% rate of refunds -- which of course is the same as the cancellation rate. Talking about that 23% rate as if it has lately increased, when 23% is what was reported months ago!

The fact that the reported Model 3 cancellation rate has not increased at all, even after repeated delays, is great news for Tesla supporters!

View attachment 1258
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I got assigned this post this morning. As is usual, I didn't write the headline. (and I just noticed 144 comments! Holy jumpin'!)

I think it's one of those things that might sound alarming if you don't know all the context. I actually thought 23% was actually pretty good. I expected something closer to 50%. It does indicate that the delays weren't helpful, but I think everyone already agrees on that.
 
Domenick said:
I got assigned this post this morning. As is usual, I didn't write the headline. (and I just noticed 144 comments! Holy jumpin'!)

I think it's one of those things that might sound alarming if you don't know all the context. I actually thought 23% was actually pretty good. I expected something closer to 50%. It does indicate that the delays weren't helpful, but I think everyone already agrees on that.
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When I look at the charts, and see + or - 100K cancels, and only 25K + or - bought Tesla's If I am in Fremont I am going to church and pray both trends do not continue at the same pace.
 
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