‘Tesla Killers’ Are Having A Really Hard Time Killing Tesla

Discussion in 'General' started by interestedinEV, Aug 20, 2019.

  1. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member

    @David Green this is not a black and white issue, it is several shades of grey. Fact, Sales of X/S are down YOY. Fact, Model 3 Sales have sky rocketed and hence overall sales has jumped. You cannot look at just one area and not the totality. So here are of the factors that could have contributed to the sales decline. One, some potential S/X customers bought a Model 3 (I know one who did exactly that, and this may not be too many people, but there is some cannibalization). Second, the disappearance of the Federal initiatives for S/X has caused some drop in sales. Third, there is competition and some of the 4,000 + sales of the E-tron and the I-pace could have been from people who would have otherwise bought a S/X.
    (
    Fourth, there are people who are holding off, waiting for other cars to come to the market including the Y. (I am one of them). Fifth, there is a natural cycle in product growth, rapid growth, some plateauing or even dip, then growth resumes. Six, Tesla fatigue, that Tesla due to a variety of reasons including Elon's antics have caused a loss in confidence in Tesla. There are other reasons also.

    Now, I have not analyzed every issue to tell you what the contribution of each reason to the overall decline. To net it out, some are due to the natural growth cycles, some are due to product diversification, some are due to competition and some due to Tesla losing its allure. I am not going to deny that Tesla is under attack and the attacks are going to intensify. Model Y will go against the Crozz and others. But as I keep pointing out, Tesla has things going for it and if they play their hands well, they will be able to continue to be the market leader. So, let us look at the whole picture objectively, not bits and pieces of it. Just looking at S/X sales is not the full picture.

    As far as share price is concerned, may be Tesla was over valued to begin with due to hype and market is now giving it its fair value.
     
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Cherry picking is a common misdirection technique.

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    You've bought into the anti-Tesla rhetoric. Tesla did not "lose" almost a billion dollars last year; it invested almost a billion dollars more than it took in. Those investments were part of, and necessary for, its rapid growth. If Tesla wasn't growing rapidly, then it would be showing an annual profit. It's easy to see why those who want to see Tesla fail would like to see it, at least, stop growing rapidly!

    Nobody describes investments in a 401(k) retirement plan as "losses". So why is the term used for Tesla's investments? Aren't Tesla's investments pretty much the same thing; investments which will increase future income? Where is the logic or rational reason for calling some such investments "losses"?

    This is pretty simple and straightforward; I don't understand why so many people seem to have a hard time grasping these basic facts. It's the same growth strategy that Amazon.com used, quite successfully. And Tesla is quite successful, too... despite the incessant baying of the anti-Tesla "Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!" pack.

     
    ukemike likes this.
  4. David Green

    David Green Active Member

     
  5. David Green

    David Green Active Member

    I agree with part of what you are saying, and my biggest issue with Tesla FANS is they cannot see the forest through the trees. S and X were Tesla's profit base in the 3rd and 4th Qtr last year as they were priced substantially higher (take a look at Q 3 2018 revenue per car and compare it to the record Qtr Q2 2019, and you see a substantial drop in revenue per car this year, which is why the company swung from profit to loss, and the stock went from $350+ where bob looked like a genius to $220 where bob ... well you get it... Yes, there are lots of factors affecting the market, but my point is Tesla has had no competition all these years and were not able to make a profit and capitalize. They built a tent in fremont with a manual assembly line and 30% of GF1, which even the first 30% is lacking key energy saving infrastructure which was sold to investors... One good thing for Tesla, their roof on GF1 did not catch fire with the tiny amount of solar they deployed.

    Tesla is the EV market leader in the USA by a long shot, but losing its edge in the profitable segments. Audi has very limited inventory of the E-Tron and is selling all they can make. Look at S vs E-Tron in Norway, E-Tron has dominated since release. Look at X vs E-tron in Norway since release? ` Tesla has lots of inventory, and having weekly factory shut downs to adjust inventory levels.

    I think Tesla is still 50% overvalued, 100% if Elon keeps making mistakes....
     
  6. interestedinEV

    interestedinEV Active Member


    As I have pointed out many times, I am in the wait and see position, rather than joining the "Elon cannot do any wrong" or the "Elon cannot do anything right" camp. I see headwinds for Tesla, but real competition is still a year or more away, where competitors have sufficient volumes to make an impact on Tesla. However, I believe that all is not lost for Tesla and they still have opportunity to prosper. One thing is clear, the near monopoly enjoyed by Tesla is going to erode over a period of time, but that does not mean Tesla cannot co-exist with other manufacturers. If you remember, we had many cell phone companies, they merged and we have essentially a duopoly. We had many airlines, now, it has come down to 4 with a few smaller players. On the other hand, in automotive world, we had big 3 in the US, but we have so many global competitors who are big on their own right (VW, Toyota). And we have a big market (18 million new vehicle sales or around that figure), so Tesla can remain an independent brand, if they do things right.

    We seem to agree on a lot of things, but where we disagree is that you seem to believe that Tesla cannot/will not change as Elon will not allow it. I believe that it is too premature to determine that. Elon has made smart moves in the past and I think he will adjust to the new reality, but only time will tell if I am right.

    About your other points, I do not fault Elon for setting up a tent as it was what it was, and he needed to do it. In hindsight, we can say many things on what could have/should have happened, but he did get the production moving. Was it the best way to have done it? No, some of the problems were self inflicted, but we have to give credit to Elon. He has created the first new (from ground up) car company in decades that has been able to achieve 200,000+ vehicles in a year. All the Intellectual Capital that has been created is still there and underestimating Elon is a big mistake that competitors can make.
     
  7. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Well of course Tesla could have made a net profit for the past few years, probably anytime after 2014 or so, if that had been Tesla's primary goal. (Or maybe even 2013; Mr. Google says that was the year in which Tesla paid off its DOE loan almost 10 years early.) Instead, rapid growth was and continues to be Tesla's primary goal... thank goodness!

    And you have to drink extra- extra-strength anti-Tesla Kool-Aid to believe that's not true!

    Hopefully rapid growth will continue to take priority over net profits so long as Tesla still has a large potential to keep expanding its market, which obviously it does for the next several years, with the Model Y, the Tesla Pickup, and the Tesla Semi Truck all in development.

     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2019
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber


    "Cash and cash equivalents of $5.0B"
    "Auto Gross margin at 18.9%"
    "deliveries of 95,356 vehicles and production of 87,048"
    "launch Gigafactory Shanghai by end of 2019 and Model Y by fall of 2020"​

    Tesla has enough cash to stay in business and still making money building the Model S/X/3. It made a bunch of cars in Q2 and sold more, the carry forward from Q1, in the overseas markets. Tesla continues to invest in adding production. Sounds like a plan.

    Bob Wilson
     
  9. David Green

    David Green Active Member


    Oh Gosh Bob, its so easy to show the flaw in your thoughts... $5B in the bank? Uh Huh? On what day? Last day of June, what about July 10th?
     

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  10. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Most recent estimate of Tesla's cash on hand is $5.083 billion, according to this website. So what are you prattling on about now?

    But I suppose you're gonna tell us, as part of your tinfoil-hat TslaQ conspiracy theory, that this number isn't real; that it's just part of the ongoing "fraud" that is Tesla motors.

    I must say, it's a remarkably productive "fraud" that can manage to make and sell tens of thousands of very popular, extremely well reviewed cars every single month!
    :p :D :cool:
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2019
  11. Roy_H

    Roy_H Active Member

    I agree with most of your post, just a little nit pick here. Elon stated "feature complete" and described that as you could go to sleep. But the requirement for the driver to monitor and remain alert is a legal issue.

    Personally I am firmly on the fence about FSD and am in wait and see mode. I will not predict success or failure. I did agree earlier that the hardware was inadequate (and still feel the challenge would be easier with better hardware), but after watching the Autonomy Day presentation I was impressed especially by that little clip that showed a computer rendering of a street in San Francisco derived from 5 second recording with Tesla's cameras. The main thing that I think is missing is sound. A FSD car should be able to hear someone shout or hear a horn honk and respond appropriately.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    Me too but am a $3k advocate of basic AutoPilot. Sure there are somethings basic AutoPilot and sentry mode could do better:
    • Short horn beeps when other cars invade lane or someone screws with car.
    • Allow manual speed setting of cruise control instead default Google Map value.
    • Read speed signs for adjusting cruise control speed limits.
    • Read stop signs and stop lights.
    • Improved handling of marginal lane lines.
    • Improved handling of static objects and transiting vehicles in front of car.
    Bob Wilson
     
  13. electriceddy

    electriceddy Well-Known Member

    How about a WAKE UP alarm, maybe a small electric jolt incorporated into the seat... shouldn't have any affect on the range:
    https://www.cnn.com/videos/business...-freeway-sleeping-behind-wheel-ndwknd-vpx.cnn
     
  14. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    That's not the first time I've seen that claim, but I have yet to see it substantiated.

    Not that I mean to scoff at the assertion. It may be true. I just have not seen any solid evidence in support of the assertion that this is why Elon changed his tune about that. So far as I can see, that's just speculation on someone's part. If Elon said that's why he walked back his claim, I'd like to see the actual quote.

    You're talking about the 3D point maps, yes?

    I went back and watched that section a second time -- because yes, that was impressive, despite the sparseness of the data points. The second time, I noticed that it shows just still images. Nothing that is moving -- no moving vehicles and no pedestrians -- are part of those maps. As I've said frequently, this simply isn't adequate for safe self-driving cars.

    Autonomous cars will need active sensors, which don't require all the software interpretation and massive number-crunching needed for the way Tesla is trying to do it. With active sensors, the program doesn't need to try to recognize individual images in photos, nor does it need to extrapolate distance from those images. Active sensors provide immediate, positive detection of objects, and range to those objects. Very little in the way of data processing is needed to build up a virtual 3D map of the environment using active scanner reflections; certainly not the massive number-crunching that Tesla's "Full Self Driving" presentation speakers kept emphasizing as all-important.

    A SLAM (real-time 3D mapping) system using active sensors will be able to react much, much quicker to changes in the environment; changes such as the position and size of other vehicles moving along a road, or a pedestrian walking alongside a road... or stepping into it.

    A SLAM system that can recognize a pedestrian is carrying a Gucci handbag and leading a Pekinese poodle on a leash stepping into the street isn't of much help... if it can't identify those until 3 seconds after the cameras take the pictures! It also won't be adequate if it can accurately identify an object 99%, or even 99.9% of the time... but completely fail to even "notice" that an object is there 1% of the time or even 0.1% of the time.

    As I've said, the SLAM system doesn't need to identify the obstacles it "sees" -- stationary or moving obstacles, or living or inanimate objects. The SLAM system just needs to be able to spot the position and size of obstacles reliably and quickly; quickly enough for the car to react properly to avoid collision.

    From what Tesla showed, it's very far from having even a crude first-stage SLAM system. Tesla is going down a completely different path, and in my opinion, that's a dead end path.

     
  15. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I think GM's Super Cruise handles this better. As I understand it, GM uses an internal camera focused on the driver to watch where his eyes are looking, and if the driver isn't watching the road for a few seconds or more, then it starts giving warnings and beeps.

    I also think that's much less intrusive than Tesla's repeated "you have to jiggle the steering wheel now" tests to see if the driver is paying attention. It's almost certainly a lot harder to defeat, too; you can defeat Tesla's alertness testing by something as simple as wedging an orange into the steering wheel!

    Hopefully GM's method of measuring driver alertness will become the industry standard.

     
    electriceddy likes this.
  16. electriceddy

    electriceddy Well-Known Member

    I read somewhere some Tesla drivers were using a water bottle to accomplish the same over ride.:eek:
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web Well-Known Member Subscriber

    I use a pound of birdshot in a sock tied to the steering wheel rim. Works great.

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    Yeah, that was the first "defeat device" I saw pictured on social media. But wedging an orange into the steering wheel is even lower low-tech!

     

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